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Italy v Germany : UEFA Nations League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 20th Mar, 19:45 BST, Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

the Giuseppe Meazza faithful welcome Germany's travelling contingent on Thursday evening, as Luciano Spalletti's Italy take on Julian Nagelsmann's side in the UEFA Nations League. Ahead of the game, it's our goal to help you find the perfect bet for you. To this end, stats for seventeen major betting market have been published below, with head-to-head history and particularly important form streaks highlighted. Odds from leading bookmakers are included as well.


Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

KickOff's predictive algorithm suggests there is a 78% probability of Italy and Germany scoring a minimum of two goals in this UEFA Nations League match. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are central to that calculation , and it seems the bookies like the look of it as a tip too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available at a best price of 1.35.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 38% chance of Germany coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Italy
37%
-2.70
Draw
25%
-3.30
Germany
38%
-2.60
Draw 1-1
12%
-6.00
Germany 2-1
8%
-9.00
Italy 2-1
8%
-9.00
Germany 1-0
8%
-7.00
Italy 1-0
8%
-7.50
Draw 2-2
6%
-13.00
Germany 2-0
6%
-11.00
Italy 2-0
6%
-11.00
Draw 0-0
6%
-8.00
Germany 3-1
4%
-17.00
Italy 3-1
4%
-17.00
Germany 3-2
3%
-23.00
Italy 3-2
3%
-23.00
Germany 3-0
3%
-19.00
Italy 3-0
3%
-21.00
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
-2.05
Under 2.5 Goals
45%
-1.70
Home 1st Goal
48%
--
Away 1st Goal
48%
--
No 1st Goal
3%
--
BTTS - Yes
58%
-1.85
BTTS - No
42%
-1.85
BTTS - Home Win
19%
-5.25
BTTS - Draw
19%
-4.33
BTTS - Away Win
20%
-5.00
Home/draw
62%
-1.48
Away/draw
63%
-1.44
Home/away
75%
-1.33
Over 1.5 Goals
78%
-1.35
Under 1.5 Goals
22%
-3.00
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
-3.60
Under 3.5 Goals
67%
-1.25
Over 4.5 Goals
17%
-7.00
Under 4.5 Goals
83%
-1.08
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
-15.00
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
-1.02
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
-1.06
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
-8.00
Home DNB
54%
-1.91
Away DNB
56%
-1.80
Italy win to nil
18%
--
Germany win to nil
18%
--
Italy / Italy
18%
-4.20
Italy / Germany
3%
-23.00
Italy / Draw
6%
-12.00
Draw / Italy
13%
-6.00
Draw / Germany
13%
-5.75
Draw / Draw
17%
-4.50
Germany / Italy
3%
-23.00
Germany / Germany
19%
-4.00
Germany / Draw
6%
-12.00
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
15
Germany have not lost in 15 consecutive games
Italy
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
38
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Italy1 - 3France
Italy4 - 1Israel
Italy2 - 2Belgium
Italy2 - 1Albania
Italy1 - 0Bosnia
Italy0 - 0Turkey
Italy2 - 1Venezuela
Italy5 - 2Macedonia
Italy4 - 0Malta
Italy2 - 1Ukraine
Italy1 - 2England
Italy1 - 0England
Italy2 - 1Hungary
Italy1 - 1Germany
Italy0 - 1Macedonia
Italy1 - 1Switzerland
Italy2 - 1Belgium
Italy1 - 2Spain
Italy5 - 0Lithuania
Italy1 - 1Bulgaria
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HItaly1 - 3France
AItaly1 - 0Belgium
HItaly4 - 1Israel
HItaly2 - 2Belgium
AItaly2 - 1Israel
AItaly3 - 1France
AItaly0 - 2Switzerland
AItaly1 - 1Croatia
AItaly0 - 1Spain
HItaly2 - 1Albania
HItaly1 - 0Bosnia
HItaly0 - 0Turkey
AItaly2 - 0Ecuador
HItaly2 - 1Venezuela
AItaly0 - 0Ukraine
HItaly5 - 2Macedonia
AItaly1 - 3England
HItaly4 - 0Malta
HItaly2 - 1Ukraine
AItaly1 - 1Macedonia
Germany
20 league games
Away
Overall
15
Goals: Scored
39
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
8
Draw
10
L
2
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Hungary1 - 1Germany
Bosnia1 - 2Germany
Netherlands2 - 2Germany
Spain1 - 1Germany
Switzerland1 - 1Germany
France0 - 2Germany
Austria2 - 0Germany
Mexico2 - 2Germany
USA1 - 3Germany
Poland1 - 0Germany
Costa Rica2 - 4Germany
Spain1 - 1Germany
England3 - 3Germany
Hungary1 - 1Germany
Italy1 - 1Germany
Netherlands1 - 1Germany
Armenia1 - 4Germany
Macedonia0 - 4Germany
Iceland0 - 4Germany
Liechtenstein0 - 2Germany
Goals: Scored
44
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
12
Draw
6
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AGermany1 - 1Hungary
HGermany7 - 0Bosnia
HGermany1 - 0Netherlands
AGermany2 - 1Bosnia
AGermany2 - 2Netherlands
HGermany5 - 0Hungary
AGermany1 - 1Spain
HGermany2 - 0Denmark
AGermany1 - 1Switzerland
HGermany2 - 0Hungary
HGermany5 - 1Scotland
HGermany2 - 1Greece
HGermany0 - 0Ukraine
HGermany2 - 1Netherlands
AGermany2 - 0France
AGermany0 - 2Austria
HGermany2 - 3Turkey
AGermany2 - 2Mexico
AGermany3 - 1USA
HGermany2 - 1France
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Italy since 1996
Italy
Germany
Goals: Scored
1
1
Games: Scored
1 / 2
1 / 2
Clean sheets
1 / 2
1 / 2
D
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Italy
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
League games at Germany since 2006
Germany
Italy
Goals: Scored
6
7
Games: Scored
2 / 4
4 / 4
Clean sheets
0 / 4
2 / 4
ITA
2
D
1
GER
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Germany
Germany5 - 2
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Italy
0 - 2Italy
Goal Statistics

Germany have been steady in front of goal of late, finding the net in 12 consecutive UEFA Nations League matches. Their PG of 1.5 against Italy on Thursday suggests they're likely to extend that run.

Italy Germany
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
1.5
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
24%
1
34%
2
24%
3
12%
4+
There is a 76% probability that Italy will score 1 or more goals
0
23%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4+
There is a 77% probability that Germany will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
=0
Italy’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
=0
Germany’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.9
average goals scored
2.0
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
UEFA Nations League - 2024/2024 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/288843/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Italy
PG (predicted goals)
Germany
1.4
1.5
Attack rating
ITA
GER
18%
better
view stats
Games scored16
18
Failed to score4
2
Scored first12
12
Goals scored34
44
Avg. goals scored1.7
2.2
Avg. shots per game10
12
Avg. shots per goal6
5
Conversion rate for18
19
Avg. XG for1.4
2.5
KickOff rating
+18%
Defence rating
ITA
GER
9%
better
view stats
Games conceded14
13
Clean sheets6
7
Conceded first6
7
Goals conceded21
18
Avg. goals conceded1.1
0.9
Avg. shots/game conceded7
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against15%
12%
Avg. XG against1
1
KickOff rating
+9%

The line-ups for the UEFA Nations League match between Italy v Germany will show here when available.

Italy UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
681098
G DonnarummaN Barella N Barella N Barella 
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
G Donnarumma GLK70
4
-
N Barella  MID59109
8
-
G Lorenzo DEF4454
7
-
G Raspadori FWD3675
-
A Bastoni DEF332
2
-
M Locatelli MID3032
4
-
F Dimarco DEF2836
2
-
D Frattesi MID2581
1
-
S Tonali MID2114
5
-
M Kean FWD1952
2
-
M Retegui FWD1861
1
-
A Cambiaso DEF1322
2
-
A Buongiorno DEF9
1
-
D Udogie DEF93
1
-
F Gatti DEF5
2
-
G Vicario GLK4
-
A Meret GLK3
-
D Maldini MID2
-
N Rovella MID2
-
N Pisilli MID1
1
-
Germany UEFA Nations League squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
94222113
J KimmichS GnabryJ KimmichA Rüdiger
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Kimmich MID97721
11
-
A Rüdiger DEF7635
13
-
L Sané FWD67147
4
1
K Havertz FWD552015
4
-
S Gnabry FWD492210
1
-
J Brandt MID4833
-
J Musiala MID3877
1
-
J Tah DEF33
6
-
F Wirtz MID2968
3
-
R Gosens DEF2325
6
-
B Henrichs DEF193
1
-
N Schlotterbeck DEF184
7
-
R Andrich MID161
5
-
R Koch DEF12
2
-
P Groß MID121
1
-
M Mittelstädt DEF1112
2
-
C Führich MID8
-
T Kleindienst FWD42
-
F Nmecha MID31
1
-
O Baumann GLK2
-
A Nübel GLK2
-