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Toluca v Tigres UANL : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 27th Jul, 02:00 BST, Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo

It's a long trek for Manuel Pellegrini's Tigres UANL side on Sunday morning, as they head to the Estadio Nemesio Díez for a Liga MX clash with Patrick Glockner's Toluca. Analysing both teams' last 20 Liga MX matches, as well as trends within the competition and the betting market, to generate our match predictions. All the stats, including head-to-heads, are shown below, alongside odds from leading bookmakers.


Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

Our predictive algorithm suggests there's a 77% probability of Toluca and Tigres scoring at least two goals in this Liga MX clash. Recent form stats and head-to-head (H2H) records are included in the calculation , and it would appear that the bookmakers favour that outcome too. This over 1.5 goals tip is available with best odds of 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Toluca are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 54% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.75.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Toluca
54%
3/4-
Draw
23%
5/2-
Tigres
23%
16/5-
Draw 1-1
11%
6/1-
Toluca 1-0
10%
13/2-
Toluca 2-1
10%
15/2-
Toluca 2-0
9%
15/2-
Tigres 1-0
6%
11/1-
Draw 0-0
6%
10/1-
Tigres 2-1
6%
14/1-
Toluca 3-1
6%
14/1-
Toluca 3-0
5%
14/1-
Draw 2-2
5%
14/1-
Tigres 2-0
3%
22/1-
Toluca 3-2
3%
25/1-
Toluca 4-1
3%
28/1-
Toluca 4-0
2%
28/1-
Tigres 3-1
2%
33/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
9/10-
Under 2.5 Goals
46%
9/10-
Home 1st Goal
54%
1/2-
Away 1st Goal
43%
7/4-
No 1st Goal
3%
10/1-
BTTS - Yes
54%
4/5-
BTTS - No
46%
19/20-
BTTS - Home Win
25%
11/4-
BTTS - Draw
18%
15/4-
BTTS - Away Win
12%
7/1-
Home/draw
77%
1/5-
Away/draw
46%
10/11-
Home/away
77%
1/4-
Over 1.5 Goals
77%
2/7-
Under 1.5 Goals
23%
5/2-
Over 3.5 Goals
31%
9/4-
Under 3.5 Goals
69%
1/3-
Over 4.5 Goals
16%
11/2-
Under 4.5 Goals
84%
1/9-
Over 5.5 Goals
7%
14/1-
Under 5.5 Goals
93%
1/33-
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/20-
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
10/1-
Home DNB
70%
1/3-
Away DNB
39%
9/4-
Toluca win to nil
29%
2/1-
Tigres win to nil
11%
7/1-
Toluca / Toluca
29%
15/8-
Toluca / Tigres
2%
33/1-
Toluca / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Toluca
18%
15/4-
Draw / Tigres
9%
8/1-
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2-
Tigres / Toluca
4%
22/1-
Tigres / Tigres
12%
6/1-
Tigres / Draw
6%
14/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
4
Toluca have won 4 consecutive home league games
12
Toluca have not lost in 12 consecutive home league games
5
Tigres have not won in 5 consecutive away league games
5
Tigres have failed to score in 5 consecutive away league games
Toluca 3RD
20 league games
Home
4
Overall
Goals: Scored
53
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
15
D
4
L
1
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca3 - 1Necaxa
Toluca2 - 0America
Toluca3 - 0Tigres
Toluca2 - 1Monterrey
Toluca2 - 2Cruz Azul
Toluca2 - 1S. Laguna
Toluca3 - 2Pachuca
Toluca5 - 2Necaxa
Toluca5 - 0Queretaro
Toluca2 - 1Guadalajara
Toluca1 - 0Tigres
Toluca1 - 1Monterrey
Toluca0 - 2America
Toluca4 - 0America
Toluca2 - 2Leon
Toluca5 - 0Puebla
Toluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
Toluca4 - 1Atlas
Toluca4 - 0Tijuana
Toluca2 - 1A. San Luis
Goals: Scored
47
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
14
D
4
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HToluca3 - 1Necaxa
HToluca2 - 0America
AToluca0 - 0America
HToluca3 - 0Tigres
AToluca1 - 1Tigres
HToluca2 - 1Monterrey
AToluca2 - 3Monterrey
HToluca2 - 2Cruz Azul
AToluca1 - 0A. San Luis
AToluca3 - 2Atlas
HToluca2 - 1S. Laguna
HToluca3 - 2Pachuca
AToluca3 - 0Puebla
HToluca5 - 2Necaxa
AToluca0 - 3America
HToluca5 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 0Juarez
HToluca2 - 1Guadalajara
AToluca3 - 3Leon
HToluca1 - 0Tigres
Tigres
20 league games
Away
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
10 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
10 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Toluca3 - 0Tigres
Necaxa0 - 0Tigres
Pachuca0 - 0Tigres
Puebla0 - 0Tigres
America3 - 0Tigres
Necaxa1 - 2Tigres
Leon1 - 0Tigres
Toluca1 - 0Tigres
Guadalajara1 - 1Tigres
A. San Luis1 - 3Tigres
A. San Luis3 - 0Tigres
Cruz Azul1 - 1Tigres
Tijuana0 - 3Tigres
Mazatlan2 - 0Tigres
Monterrey4 - 2Tigres
Juarez0 - 1Tigres
Queretaro1 - 0Tigres
Pumas UNAM1 - 3Tigres
S. Laguna0 - 3Tigres
Atlas1 - 1Tigres
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
9
Draw
6
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ATigres0 - 3Toluca
HTigres1 - 1Toluca
HTigres2 - 2Necaxa
ATigres0 - 0Necaxa
HTigres2 - 1Pumas UNAM
ATigres0 - 0Pachuca
HTigres2 - 1Monterrey
ATigres0 - 0Puebla
ATigres0 - 3America
HTigres3 - 0S. Laguna
HTigres1 - 0Queretaro
ATigres2 - 1Necaxa
HTigres0 - 1Juarez
ATigres0 - 1Leon
HTigres2 - 1Cruz Azul
HTigres2 - 1Atlas
ATigres0 - 1Toluca
HTigres4 - 0Tijuana
ATigres1 - 1Guadalajara
HTigres2 - 1Mazatlan
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
7
Toluca have beaten Tigres in 7 consecutive home league meetings
7
Toluca have not lost to Tigres in 7 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Toluca since 2019
Toluca
Tigres
Goals: Scored
18
8
Games: Scored
7 / 8
6 / 8
Clean sheets
2 / 8
1 / 8
TOL
7
TIG
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
Toluca3 - 0
Toluca1 - 0
Toluca2 - 1
Toluca3 - 1
Toluca3 - 2
Toluca3 - 1
Toluca3 - 2
0 - 1Tigres
League games at Tigres since 2018
Tigres
Toluca
Goals: Scored
19
10
Games: Scored
9 / 10
8 / 10
Clean sheets
2 / 10
1 / 10
TOL
2
D
2
TIG
6
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Tigres
Draw1 - 1Draw
Tigres2 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
Tigres4 - 1
Tigres3 - 1
Tigres3 - 0
0 - 1Toluca
Tigres2 - 1
Tigres1 - 0
1 - 2Toluca
Goal Statistics

Toluca's defensive record is to be admired, Patrick Glockner's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive Liga MX outings. An average PG rating of 1.1 for Tigres UANL makes sense in this context.

Toluca 3rd Tigres th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.8
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
17%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4+
10%
There is a 83% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals
0
35%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 72% probability that Tigres will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+23
Toluca have scored 23% more goals at home than predicted
-25
Tigres have scored 25% fewer goals when away than predicted
2.7
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2025/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/303728/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Toluca
PG (predicted goals)
Tigres
1.8
1.1
Attack rating
43%
better
TOL
TIG
view stats
Games scored1
0
Failed to score0
0
Scored first0
0
Goals scored3
0
Avg. goals scored3
0
Avg. shots per game16
0
Avg. shots per goal5
0
Conversion rate for19
0
Avg. XG for2.1
0
KickOff rating
+43%
Defence rating
TOL
TIG
57%
better
view stats
Games conceded1
0
Clean sheets0
0
Conceded first1
0
Goals conceded1
0
Avg. goals conceded1
0
Avg. shots/game conceded9
0
Avg. shots/goal conceded9
0
Conversion rate against11%
0%
Avg. XG against0.9
0
KickOff rating
+57%

Toluca v Tigres Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
1111
L GarcíaM RuízN CastroJ Gallardo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L García GLK1
-
J Gallardo DEF1
1
-
Luan DEF1
-
B Méndez DEF1
-
F Pereira DEF1
-
D Barbosa DEF1
-
E López DEF1
-
N Castro MID11
-
M Ruíz MID111
1
-
J Uriarte MID11
-
F Romero MID1
-
Paulinho FWD1
-
R Morales FWD1
-
A Vega FWD11
-
J Domínguez FWD1
-
Helinho  FWD11
-
Tigres Liga MX squad statistics 2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE