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América v Toluca : Liga MX match betting preview, prediction and odds

Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Home advantage can be vital in the Liga MX, and André Soares Jardine’s América will have the joy of it on Saturday night. Patrick Glockner’s Toluca are their opponents at the Estadio Azteca. All of the important statistics for the clash, including head-to-heads, predictions and the best odds across 17 markets are included in this preview. It's all brought together specifically to help you make the most well-informed bet possible.

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América's next match is v Atlas at 03:00 on Sunday 16th March
Toluca's next match is v Puebla at 03:05 on Saturday 15th March
The last Mexican Liga MX meeting between America and Toluca was on Saturday 1st March 2025
Mexican Liga MX
March 1st 2025
America 3
0 Toluca
 
Á. Fidalgo Fernández 6'
A. Zendejas Saavedra 51'
C. Borja González 90'
 
AME
TOL
Shots On
8
5
Shots Off
3
5
Corners
4
11
Possession
42%
58%
Fouls
9
2
Yellow/red cards
2/0
1/0
 
AmericaToluca
 
L. Malagón Velázquez
R. Del Castillo
C. Borja Gonzálezfootball icon
I. Reyes Romero
K. Álvarez Campos
A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
Á. Fidalgo Fernándezfootball icon (D. Valdés Contreras 89')
E. Sánchez Ocegueda (R. Sánchez Guerrero 80')
P. Rodríguez Bravo (C. Calderón Del Real 70')
A. Zendejas Saavedrafootball icon (V. Dávila Zavala 89')
H. Martín Mex (R. Aguirre Soto 80')
P. López Sabata
J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
(D. Barbosa Zaragoza 45') B. García Carpizo
B. Méndez Cittadini
A. Pereira Castelnoble
(H. Nunes de Castro 61') J. Angulo Uriarte
M. Ruiz Suárez
(H. Herrera López 73') F. Romero
(L. Garcia Teixeira 62') E. Vega Rojas
(R. Morales 62') J. Domínguez Chonteco
J. Dias Fernandes

Best Tip: Both teams to score

Having studied all relevant statistics, including historical head-to-head (H2H) data, we fully expect this fixture to deliver both joy and sadness to both sets of fans. We expect both America and Toluca to find the back of the net during the 90 mins, but the ultimate victor of the match seems less clear. Bookmaker's odds also point towards a both teams to score bet, and that's what we'd recommend going with.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think America are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 47% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
America
47%
11/10-
Draw
24%
29/10
8%
-
Toluca
29%
11/5-
Draw 1-1
11%
13/2
7%
-
America 2-1
9%
8/1-
America 1-0
8%
10/1
10%
-
America 2-0
7%
11/1-
Toluca 2-1
7%
10/1
8%
-
Toluca 1-0
6%
12/1-
Draw 2-2
6%
11/1-
America 3-1
5%
14/1-
Draw 0-0
5%
16/1
13%
-
America 3-0
4%
20/1-
Toluca 2-0
4%
18/1-
America 3-2
4%
20/1-
Toluca 3-1
3%
22/1-
Toluca 3-2
3%
25/1-
America 4-1
2%
28/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
3/5
1%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
42%
13/10
2%
-
Home 1st Goal
52%
4/6-
Away 1st Goal
46%
5/4-
No 1st Goal
3%
16/1
13%
-
BTTS - Yes
60%
8/15-
BTTS - No
40%
11/8-
BTTS - Home Win
25%
13/5
4%
-
BTTS - Draw
19%
7/2
4%
-
BTTS - Away Win
16%
4/1
9%
-
Home/draw
71%
4/11-
Away/draw
53%
7/10-
Home/away
76%
1/4
3%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
81%
2/11-
Under 1.5 Goals
19%
7/2-
Over 3.5 Goals
36%
6/4-
Under 3.5 Goals
64%
1/2-
Over 4.5 Goals
19%
10/3
4%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
81%
1/5
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
9%
8/1
10%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
91%
1/14
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/40
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
16/1
13%
-
Home DNB
64%
4/7
3%
-
Away DNB
46%
5/4
5%
-
America win to nil
22%
10/3-
Toluca win to nil
13%
11/2-
America / America
26%
12/5-
America / Toluca
3%
25/1-
America / Draw
6%
12/1-
Draw / America
15%
9/2-
Draw / Toluca
10%
13/2-
Draw / Draw
14%
5/1-
Toluca / America
4%
20/1-
Toluca / Toluca
15%
4/1-
Toluca / Draw
6%
12/1-
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
3
Toluca have won 3 consecutive league games
6
Toluca have not lost in 6 consecutive league games
America 8TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
37
Conceded
13
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
America1 - 1Leon
America2 - 3Necaxa
America4 - 0Juarez
America3 - 0A. San Luis
America1 - 1Tijuana
America2 - 1Monterrey
America0 - 0Cruz Azul
America2 - 0Toluca
America2 - 1Pachuca
America2 - 1Monterrey
America3 - 0S. Laguna
America0 - 1Pumas UNAM
America3 - 0Atlas
America1 - 0Guadalajara
America0 - 1Puebla
America3 - 1Queretaro
America1 - 0Cruz Azul
America1 - 0Guadalajara
America1 - 1Pachuca
America5 - 1Toluca
Goals: Scored
42
Conceded
20
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
13
Draw
5
L
2
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AAmerica2 - 0Pumas UNAM
HAmerica1 - 1Leon
HAmerica2 - 3Necaxa
AAmerica2 - 1Puebla
HAmerica4 - 0Juarez
HAmerica3 - 0A. San Luis
AAmerica4 - 1S. Laguna
HAmerica1 - 1Tijuana
AAmerica1 - 0Queretaro
AAmerica1 - 1Monterrey
HAmerica2 - 1Monterrey
AAmerica4 - 3Cruz Azul
HAmerica0 - 0Cruz Azul
AAmerica2 - 0Toluca
HAmerica2 - 0Toluca
AAmerica2 - 2Tijuana
AAmerica0 - 4Toluca
HAmerica2 - 1Pachuca
AAmerica5 - 0Mazatlan
HAmerica2 - 1Monterrey
Toluca 2ND
20 league games
Away
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
29
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
7
Draw
7
Lost
6
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Juarez0 - 4Toluca
Leon3 - 3Toluca
Pumas UNAM1 - 1Toluca
Mazatlan2 - 1Toluca
Tijuana2 - 4Toluca
America2 - 0Toluca
Tigres2 - 1Toluca
Necaxa1 - 3Toluca
Queretaro0 - 1Toluca
S. Laguna2 - 0Toluca
Pachuca2 - 2Toluca
Monterrey1 - 2Toluca
Cruz Azul1 - 1Toluca
Guadalajara0 - 0Toluca
Guadalajara1 - 0Toluca
A. San Luis1 - 5Toluca
America5 - 1Toluca
Pachuca2 - 3Toluca
Juarez1 - 1Toluca
Monterrey0 - 0Toluca
Goals: Scored
43
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HToluca5 - 0Queretaro
AToluca4 - 0Juarez
HToluca2 - 1Guadalajara
AToluca3 - 3Leon
HToluca1 - 0Tigres
AToluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
AToluca1 - 2Mazatlan
HToluca1 - 1Monterrey
AToluca4 - 2Tijuana
HToluca0 - 2America
AToluca0 - 2America
HToluca4 - 0America
AToluca1 - 2Tigres
HToluca2 - 2Leon
AToluca3 - 1Necaxa
HToluca5 - 0Puebla
AToluca1 - 0Queretaro
HToluca1 - 1Pumas UNAM
HToluca4 - 1Atlas
AToluca0 - 2S. Laguna
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
8
America have not lost to Toluca in 8 consecutive home league meetings
League games at America since 2018
America
Toluca
Goals: Scored
17
6
Games: Scored
8 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
0 / 8
AME
5
D
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT America
America2 - 0
America5 - 1
Draw1 - 1Draw
America1 - 0
America3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
America3 - 2
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Toluca since 2018
Toluca
America
Goals: Scored
20
13
Games: Scored
8 / 10
9 / 10
Clean sheets
1 / 10
2 / 10
AME
2
D
3
TOL
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Toluca
0 - 2America
Toluca4 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Toluca2 - 1
Toluca3 - 1
Toluca3 - 1
0 - 1America
Toluca3 - 2
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics

América have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 12 consecutive Liga MX games. Their PG of 1.7 against Toluca on Saturday suggests that run is likely to continue.

America 8th Toluca 2nd
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.7
goals
1.3
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
18%
1
31%
2
27%
3
15%
4+
10%
There is a 82% probability that America will score 1 or more goals
0
27%
1
35%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 73% probability that Toluca will score 1 or more goals
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+9
America’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+21
Toluca have scored 21% more goals when away than predicted
1.9
average goals scored
1.7
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.5
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Liga MX - 2024/2024 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/289243/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
America
PG (predicted goals)
Toluca
1.7
1.3
Attack rating
AME
TOL
4%
better
view stats
Games scored28
24
Failed to score5
4
Scored first20
19
Goals scored60
60
Avg. goals scored1.8
2.1
Avg. shots per game11
11
Avg. shots per goal6
5
Conversion rate for17
19
Avg. XG for1.5
1.5
KickOff rating
+4%
Defence rating
AME
TOL
8%
better
view stats
Games conceded22
19
Clean sheets11
9
Conceded first12
8
Goals conceded35
30
Avg. goals conceded1.1
1.1
Avg. shots/game conceded8
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
9
Conversion rate against13%
11%
Avg. XG against0.9
1.1
KickOff rating
+8%

America v Toluca Liga MX lLine ups will show here when available.

America Liga MX squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
3110109
L MalagónH MartínA ZendejasR Aguirre
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Malagón GLK31
1
-
K Álvarez DEF2211
1
1
I Reyes DEF292
1
-
R Juárez DEF252
5
-
C Borja DEF2321
1
-
A Campo MID261
-
A Zendejas MID28910
5
-
Álvaro Fidalgo MID3068
-
Érick Sánchez MID272
2
-
B Rodríguez MID2478
2
-
H Martín FWD30109
-
Subs
R Cota GLK4
-
N Araujo DEF182
1
-
C Calderón DEF27
4
-
R Sánchez MID1822
1
D. Espinoza Acosta MID171
4
-
M Pérez MID61
1
-
D Valdés MID183
-
V Dávila FWD175
1
-
J Dilrosun FWD1912
3
-
R Aguirre FWD2281
8
1
Toluca Liga MX squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
282089
M RuízPaulinhoA VegaM Ruíz
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
P López GLK6
-
B García DEF2511
3
-
B Méndez DEF18
1
F Pereira DEF191
6
1
J Gallardo DEF2743
5
-
J Uriarte MID2866
-
F Romero MID9
2
-
M Ruíz MID2926
9
-
A Vega MID30108
6
-
J Domínguez FWD242
2
-
Paulinho FWD28207
5
-
Subs
L García GLK3
-
D Barbosa DEF91
2
-
A Briseño DEF41
-
Luan DEF272
3
-
Helinho  MID153
2
-
H Herrera MID82
1
-
F Amaya MID152
1
-
I Violante FWD2364
4
-
I López FWD191
-
R Morales FWD1431
-