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Milan v Fiorentina : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Fiorentina are away from home on Saturday evening, as manager Raffaele Palladino takes his side to visit Milan and Giuseppe Pillon at the Giuseppe Meazza in the Serie A. All the odds are delivered directly from the UK's leading bookmakers, while predictions are algorithmically generated from statistics over a 20-game period. We pay particular attention to Serie A match data, including head to head (H2H) records. Explore it all using the tabs below.

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Milan's next match is v Atalanta at 19:45 on Sunday 20th April
Fiorentina's next match is v Celje at 17:45 on Thursday 17th April
The last Italian Serie A meeting between Milan and Fiorentina was on Saturday 5th April 2025
Italian Serie A
April 5th 2025
Milan 2
2 Fiorentina
 
K. Bakumo-Abraham 23'7' (OG)M. Thiaw
L. Jović 64'10' M. Kean
 
ACM
FIO
Shots On
6
8
Shots Off
5
5
Corners
7
4
Possession
52%
48%
Fouls
12
12
Yellow/red cards
4/0
3/1
 
MilanFiorentina
 
M. Maignan
K. Walker
M. Thiawfootball icon
F. Tomori
T. Hernández
Y. Musah (L. Jović 23')
Y. Fofana (W. Bondo 80')
T. Reijnders
K. Bakumo-Abrahamfootball icon (S. Giménez 55')
C. Pulisic (S. Chukwueze 80')
R. Conceição Leão
D. de Gea Quintana
(P. Comuzzo 72') M. Pongracic
L. Ranieri
(M. Folorunsho 72') F. Parisi
P. Marí Villar
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
N. Fagioli
(C. Ndour 59') D. Cataldi
(Y. Adli 88') R. Mandragora
(L. Beltrán 59') A. Gudmundsson
football iconM. Kean

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Serie A Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't believe there is a clear favourite to win this match, but does appear clear is that the odds are pointing towards it'll have no more than 3 goals. Our statistical analysis is inline with them too. Milan and Fiorentina have taken part in a host of under 3.5 goal games recently, and key performance statistics point towards an extension of that record. We have confidence in predicting under 3.5 goals on Saturday evening, and the bookmakers have it priced at 1.44.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Milan are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 46% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.80.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Milan
46%
3/4
13%
-
Draw
27%
27/10
6%
-
Fiorentina
27%
15/4
27%
-
Milan 1-0
13%
6/1-
Draw 1-1
13%
6/1
8%
-
Draw 0-0
9%
10/1
16%
-
Fiorentina 1-0
9%
12/1
30%
-
Milan 2-0
9%
15/2
6%
-
Milan 2-1
9%
15/2
6%
-
Fiorentina 2-1
6%
14/1
15%
-
Fiorentina 2-0
5%
22/1
21%
-
Draw 2-2
4%
14/1-
Milan 3-0
4%
14/1
12%
-
Milan 3-1
4%
14/1
12%
-
Fiorentina 3-1
2%
33/1-
Milan 3-2
2%
25/1
10%
-
Fiorentina 3-0
2%
50/1
24%
-
Fiorentina 3-2
1%
40/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
10/11
5%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
57%
10/11
6%
-
Home 1st Goal
51%
1/2
7%
-
Away 1st Goal
42%
15/8
11%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
10/1
16%
-
BTTS - Yes
47%
4/5
6%
-
BTTS - No
53%
19/20
2%
-
BTTS - Home Win
18%
11/4
13%
-
BTTS - Draw
18%
15/4-
BTTS - Away Win
11%
15/2
13%
-
Home/draw
73%
2/11
6%
-
Away/draw
54%
1/1
11%
-
Home/away
73%
2/7-
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
2/7
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
11/4
10%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
12/5
15%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
1/3
5%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
9%
5/1
14%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
91%
1/8
2%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
3%
12/1
13%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
97%
1/25
1%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/20
1%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
10/1
16%
-
Home DNB
65%
3/10
10%
-
Away DNB
46%
12/5
30%
-
Milan win to nil
28%
2/1
12%
-
Fiorentina win to nil
16%
7/1
33%
-
Milan / Milan
29%
7/4
15%
-
Milan / Fiorentina
2%
33/1-
Milan / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Milan
17%
7/2
10%
-
Draw / Fiorentina
9%
8/1
13%
-
Draw / Draw
15%
9/2
10%
-
Fiorentina / Milan
4%
20/1
9%
-
Fiorentina / Fiorentina
12%
13/2
15%
-
Fiorentina / Draw
6%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win Serie A table

Milan have played 30 matches so far this season and are in 9th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

12 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 7 games, drawn 4 and won 1. Milan have conceded 19 goals, scored 11, failed to score in 3 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

Milan have played 15 games at home, winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 2 fixtures. They have scored 23 goals, conceded 12 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Fiorentina lay in 8th place on 51 points in the Serie A league table having played 30 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 18 games against teams below them in the table, winning 9, drawing 5 and losing 4 games. They have scored 25 goals and kept 8 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Fiorentina have conceded 14 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Fiorentina have played 14 away games, winning 5, drawing 3 and losing 6 games. They have scored an average of 1.4 goals per away game and conceded an average 1.1 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Milan
Fiorentina
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Inter3221834171 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-2F
w
 
3-0F
l
 
2-1A
2
Napoli3220842668 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-1A
l
 
0-3A
l
 
2-1A
3
Atalanta3218773561 
Apr 20
l
 
2-1A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
3-2F
4
Juventus32151431959 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
2-0A
w
 
3-0F
d
 
2-2A
5
Bologna32151251457 
May 11
l
 
2-1F
May 18
l
 
1-0A
6
Lazio3216881056 
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2F
w
 
2-1A
w
 
1-2F
7
Roma3215981554 
d
 
1-1F
May 18
w
 
5-1F
May 4
8
Fiorentina Away3215891753 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
2-1A
-
-
9
Milan Home3214991451 
-
-
w
 
2-1F
d
 
2-2F
10
Torino3291310-140 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
11
Udinese3211714-1040 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-4F
l
 
1-2F
May 25
12
Genoa3291211-939 
d
 
0-00-0
May 4
w
 
2-1F
w
 
0-1F
13
Como 1907329914-836 
w
 
2-1A
w
 
1-2A
l
 
0-2A
w
 
0-2F
14
Verona329518-2932 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-1F
w
 
3-1F
l
 
1-0A
15
Cagliari327916-1530 
d
 
1-1F
d
 
3-3A
w
 
1-0F
Apr 21
16
Parma3251314-1428 
w
 
3-2A
l
 
2-1A
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
17
Lecce326818-2926 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
2-3A
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-6F
18
Venezia3241216-1924 
w
 
4-0F
Apr 27
d
 
0-00-0
May 11
19
Empoli3241216-2624 
w
 
3-0F
w
 
0-2F
Apr 27
d
 
0-00-0
20
Monza322921-3115 
May 25
w
 
0-1F
d
 
2-2A
l
 
2-1A
Win / draw / win form
Milan 9TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
38
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
9
Draw
8
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Milan2 - 1Como 1907
Milan1 - 2Lazio
Milan1 - 0Verona
Milan1 - 1Inter
Milan3 - 2Parma
Milan1 - 1Cagliari
Milan1 - 1Roma
Milan0 - 0Genoa
Milan3 - 0Empoli
Milan0 - 0Juventus
Milan0 - 2Napoli
Milan1 - 0Udinese
Milan3 - 0Lecce
Milan4 - 0Venezia
Milan2 - 2Torino
Milan3 - 3Salernitana
Milan5 - 1Cagliari
Milan3 - 3Genoa
Milan1 - 2Inter
Milan3 - 0Lecce
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
24
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
8
Draw
6
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AMilan1 - 2Napoli
HMilan2 - 1Como 1907
AMilan3 - 2Lecce
HMilan1 - 2Lazio
AMilan1 - 2Bologna
AMilan1 - 2Torino
HMilan1 - 0Verona
AMilan2 - 0Empoli
HMilan1 - 1Inter
HMilan3 - 2Parma
AMilan0 - 2Juventus
AMilan2 - 1Como 1907
HMilan1 - 1Cagliari
HMilan1 - 1Roma
AMilan1 - 0Verona
HMilan0 - 0Genoa
AMilan1 - 2Atalanta
HMilan3 - 0Empoli
HMilan0 - 0Juventus
AMilan3 - 3Cagliari
Fiorentina 8TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
Won
8
D
4
Lost
8
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Napoli2 - 1Fiorentina
Verona1 - 0Fiorentina
Inter2 - 1Fiorentina
Lazio1 - 2Fiorentina
Monza2 - 1Fiorentina
Juventus2 - 2Fiorentina
Bologna1 - 0Fiorentina
Como 19070 - 2Fiorentina
Torino0 - 1Fiorentina
Genoa0 - 1Fiorentina
Lecce0 - 6Fiorentina
Empoli0 - 0Fiorentina
Atalanta3 - 2Fiorentina
Parma1 - 1Fiorentina
Atalanta2 - 3Fiorentina
Cagliari2 - 3Fiorentina
Verona2 - 1Fiorentina
Salernitana0 - 2Fiorentina
Juventus1 - 0Fiorentina
Torino0 - 0Fiorentina
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
10
D
2
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HFiorentina1 - 0Atalanta
HFiorentina3 - 0Juventus
AFiorentina1 - 2Napoli
HFiorentina1 - 0Lecce
AFiorentina0 - 1Verona
HFiorentina0 - 2Como 1907
AFiorentina1 - 2Inter
HFiorentina3 - 0Inter
HFiorentina2 - 1Genoa
AFiorentina2 - 1Lazio
HFiorentina1 - 1Torino
AFiorentina1 - 2Monza
HFiorentina0 - 3Napoli
AFiorentina2 - 2Juventus
HFiorentina1 - 2Udinese
AFiorentina0 - 1Bologna
HFiorentina1 - 0Cagliari
AFiorentina2 - 0Como 1907
HFiorentina3 - 1Verona
AFiorentina1 - 0Torino
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
4
Milan have beaten Fiorentina in 4 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Milan since 2014
Milan
Fiorentina
Goals: Scored
17
8
Games: Scored
9 / 10
6 / 10
Clean sheets
4 / 10
1 / 10
ACM
7
D
1
FIO
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Milan
Milan1 - 0
Milan2 - 1
Milan1 - 0
Milan2 - 0
1 - 3Fiorentina
0 - 1Fiorentina
Milan5 - 1
Milan2 - 1
Milan2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Fiorentina since 2015
Fiorentina
Milan
Goals: Scored
17
14
Games: Scored
9 / 11
9 / 11
Clean sheets
2 / 11
2 / 11
ACM
3
D
3
FIO
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Fiorentina
Fiorentina2 - 1
1 - 2Milan
Fiorentina2 - 1
Fiorentina4 - 3
2 - 3Milan
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Milan
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Fiorentina2 - 0
Fiorentina2 - 1
Goal Statistics
Milan 9th Fiorentina 8th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Milan will score no more than 1 goal
0
37%
1
37%
2
18%
3
4+
There is a 74% probability of Fiorentina scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+5
Milan’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+7
Fiorentina’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.9
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/283345/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Milan
PG (predicted goals)
Fiorentina
1.4
1
Attack rating
0%
better
ACM
FIO
view stats
Games scored26
24
Failed to score4
6
Scored first14
17
Goals scored45
47
Avg. goals scored1.5
1.6
Avg. shots per game11
9
Avg. shots per goal7
6
Conversion rate for14
18
Avg. XG for1.8
1.3
KickOff rating
0%
Defence rating
ACM
FIO
11%
better
view stats
Games conceded20
19
Clean sheets10
11
Conceded first14
11
Goals conceded35
30
Avg. goals conceded1.2
1
Avg. shots/game conceded9
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
9
Conversion rate against13%
12%
Avg. XG against1.1
1.2
KickOff rating
+11%

Milan v Fiorentina Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Milan Serie A squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
30975
M Maignan C PulisicC PulisicT Hernández
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Maignan  GLK30
2
-
K Walker DEF8
1
-
F Tomori DEF151
2
1
M Thiaw DEF21
2
-
T Hernández DEF2833
4
1
Y Musah MID252
5
-
Y Fofana MID2914
5
-
C Pulisic MID2797
1
-
T Reijnders MID3094
2
1
R Leão MID2967
4
-
T Abraham FWD2533
1
-
Subs
M Sportiello GLK1
-
L. Torriani GLK
-
A Florenzi  DEF
-
S Pavlovic DEF1711
2
1
D. Bartesaghi DEF2
1
M Gabbia DEF191
3
-
W Bondo MID4
1
-
F Terracciano MID10
2
-
S Giménez FWD921
3
-
L Jović  FWD92
1
-
S Chukwueze FWD233
-
J Félix FWD9
1
-
R Sottil  FWD3
-
Fiorentina Serie A squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
301757
DodôM KeanL BeltránDodô
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Gea GLK281
1
-
M Pongracic  DEF13
2
1
P Marí DEF6
2
-
L Ranieri DEF3012
4
-
Dodô MID304
7
-
R Mandragora  MID2222
5
-
D Cataldi MID223
1
-
N Fagioli MID82
-
F Parisi MID201
1
-
A Gudmundsson FWD196
2
-
M Kean FWD28173
6
-
Subs
P Terracciano GLK3
-
T Martinelli GLK
-
P. Comuzzo DEF27
5
-
M Moreno DEF4
-
N Zaniolo MID1422
4
-
A Richardson MID20
5
-
C Ndour MID5
-
Y Adli MID2234
4
1
M Folorunsho MID10
4
-
L Beltrán FWD2745
3
-