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1. FSV Mainz 05 v Sport-Club Freiburg : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 15th Mar, 14:30 BST, Mewa Arena, Mainz

Home advantage makes a difference in the Bundesliga, and Bo Henriksen’s 1. FSV Mainz 05 will have the blessing of it on Saturday afternoon. Julian Schuster’s Sport-Club Freiburg are their visitors to the Mewa Arena. It's our aim to give you everything you need to make a smart bet on this encounter, so we've sifted through our expansive database and pulled out the statistics that are most significant. Head-to-head and recent form are included, and these are used to generate our predictions. Odds from leading bookmakers are there to make sure you get the best return.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Bundesliga Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't think there's a clear favourite to win this match, but does appear clear is that the odds suggest it'll have no more than 3 goals. Our statistical analysis draws the same conclusion. Mainz and Freiburg have delivered a host of under 3.5 goal games lately, and key performance statistics point towards those records being extended. We're confidently predicting under 3.5 goals on Saturday afternoon, and the bookies have it priced at 1.30.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Mainz are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 60% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Mainz 60%	1.95	1.95 2%
Draw 24%	3.25 2%	3.40 6%
Freiburg 17%	4.20 5%	3.80 3%
Mainz 1-0 15%	7.00	6.50
Mainz 2-0 12%	8.50 6%	8.50
Draw 1-1 11%	6.00 8%	6.50
Mainz 2-1 9%	9.00	8.00
Draw 0-0 9%	8.50 6%	8.00 11%
Mainz 3-0 7%	17.00	13.00
Freiburg 1-0 7%	11.00	9.00 5%
Mainz 3-1 5%	17.00	13.00
Freiburg 2-1 4%	15.00 15%	11.00
Draw 2-2 4%	15.00	13.00
Mainz 4-0 3%	34.00	26.00 13%
Freiburg 2-0 3%	21.00	15.00
Mainz 4-1 2%	34.00	26.00 13%
Mainz 3-2 2%	29.00	21.00 11%
Freiburg 3-1 1%	34.00	23.00
Over 2.5 Goals 44%	2.10 5%	2.00 5%
Under 2.5 Goals 56%	1.73 4%	1.75 4%
Home 1st Goal 57%	1.57	-
Away 1st Goal 37%	2.75 5%	-
No 1st Goal 6%	8.50 6%	-
BTTS - Yes 44%	1.91	1.85 3%
BTTS - No 56%	1.91	1.85 3%
BTTS - Home Win 22%	4.33	4.00 5%
BTTS - Draw 15%	4.50	4.50 2%
BTTS - Away Win 7%	8.50 6%	7.00 8%
Home/draw 83%	1.22	1.25
Away/draw 40%	1.80	1.80 3%
Home/away 76%	1.33	1.30 1%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%	1.36 2%	1.33 2%
Under 1.5 Goals 30%	3.20 6%	3.10 6%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%	3.75	3.40 6%
Under 3.5 Goals 77%	1.29	1.29 1%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%	8.00 14%	6.50 8%
Under 4.5 Goals 90%	1.08 2%	1.09 2%
Over 5.5 Goals 4%	17.00 13%	13.00 8%
Under 5.5 Goals 96%	1.02 1%	1.02
Over 0.5 Goals 91%	1.07	1.06 1%
Under 0.5 Goals 9%	9.00	8.00 11%
Home DNB 76%	1.36 3%	1.40
Away DNB 33%	3.00 9%	2.70 2%
Mainz win to nil 38%	3.25	-
Freiburg win to nil 10%	7.00 8%	-
Mainz / Mainz 26%	3.20	3.00 3%
Mainz / Freiburg 3%	34.00	26.00
Mainz / Draw 6%	15.00	13.00
Draw / Mainz 17%	4.75	4.80
Draw / Freiburg 10%	8.00	7.50 6%
Draw / Draw 16%	5.00	4.80 4%
Freiburg / Mainz 4%	23.00	19.00
Freiburg / Freiburg 13%	6.50	6.00
Freiburg / Draw 6%	15.00	13.00

Win / draw / win Bundesliga table

Mainz have played 25 matches so far this season and lay in 3rd place in the Bundesliga league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 23 games against teams below in the table, having won 12, drawn 5 and lost 6 matches. They have kept 9 clean sheets and have failed to score in 5 fixtures. Mainz have outscored their opponents by 42 goals to 34 goals.

Home League Performance

Mainz have played 12 games at home winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 3 games. They have scored 16 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and conceded 10 goals at home.

Freiburg are in 5th position in the Bundesliga on 41 points having played 25 matches so far this season. Freiburg are winless in the 5 games they have played against teams above them in the table and have conceded in 4 of those games.

Away League Performance

6 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 23 goals and kept 6 clean sheets. They have scored 10 goals in total and failed to score in 5 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

5 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 4 games, drawn 1 and won zero. Freiburg have conceded 13 goals, scored 3, failed to score in 2 fixtures and have kept 1 clean sheet.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Mainz Freiburg
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Bayern	25	19	4	2	51	61	w 2-1F	Apr 26	l 1-2A	l 2-0A
2	Leverkusen	25	15	8	2	25	53	May 17	l 1-0A	May 3	l 5-1A
3	Mainz Home	25	13	5	7	16	44	-	-	d 0-00-0	Mar 15
4	E.Frankfurt	25	12	6	7	12	42	May 3	w 1-3F	May 17	l 4-1F
5	Freiburg Away	25	12	5	8	-2	41	Mar 15	d 0-00-0	-	-
6	RB Leipzig	25	10	9	6	6	39	l 0-2A	w 1-2A	d 0-00-0	l 3-1F
7	Wolfsburg	25	10	8	7	10	38	Apr 19	l 4-3F	w 3-2F	Apr 26
8	Stuttgart	25	10	7	8	5	37	w 2-0F	d 3-3A	w 3-1A	l 4-0A
9	B. M'gladbach	25	11	4	10	1	37	d 1-1F	w 1-3F	w 3-1F	Apr 12
10	Dortmund	25	10	5	10	6	35	w 3-1F	Mar 30	Apr 5	l 4-0A
11	Augsburg	25	9	8	8	-7	35	d 0-00-0	w 2-3F	w 3-1F	d 0-00-0
12	W.Bremen	25	9	6	10	-11	33	l 1-2A	l 1-0A	w 5-0F	w 0-1F
13	Union Berlin	25	7	6	12	-14	27	d 1-1F	l 2-1A	Mar 30	d 0-00-0
14	Hoffenheim	25	6	8	11	-15	26	w 2-0F	Apr 12	Apr 19	d 1-1F
15	St. Pauli	25	6	4	15	-11	22	w 2-0F	w 0-3F	l 0-3A	w 0-1F
16	VfL Bochum	25	4	6	15	-25	18	w 2-0F	May 10	w 2-1A	w 0-1F
17	Holstein	25	4	5	16	-24	17	Apr 5	w 0-3F	w 3-2F	May 10
18	Heidenheim	25	4	4	17	-23	16	l 0-2A	w 0-2F	w 1-0F	w 0-3F

	UEFA Champions League
	UEFA Europa League
	UEFA Conference League Qualifiers
	Relegation Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Mainz have not lost in 8 consecutive home league games

Mainz have kept a clean sheet for 4 consecutive home league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Mainz	2 - 0	St. Pauli
Mainz	0 - 0	Augsburg
Mainz	2 - 0	Stuttgart
Mainz	2 - 0	VfL Bochum
Mainz	2 - 1	Bayern
Mainz	2 - 0	Hoffenheim
Mainz	3 - 1	Dortmund
Mainz	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
Mainz	0 - 2	RB Leipzig
Mainz	0 - 2	Heidenheim
Mainz	1 - 2	W.Bremen
Mainz	1 - 1	Union Berlin
Mainz	3 - 0	Dortmund
Mainz	1 - 1	Köln
Mainz	4 - 1	Hoffenheim
Mainz	4 - 0	Darmstadt
Mainz	2 - 0	VfL Bochum
Mainz	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
Mainz	1 - 0	Augsburg
Mainz	1 - 1	Union Berlin

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Mainz	3 - 1	B. M'gladbach
A	Mainz	2 - 1	RB Leipzig
H	Mainz	2 - 0	St. Pauli
A	Mainz	2 - 0	Heidenheim
H	Mainz	0 - 0	Augsburg
A	Mainz	0 - 1	W.Bremen
H	Mainz	2 - 0	Stuttgart
A	Mainz	1 - 2	Union Berlin
A	Mainz	0 - 1	Leverkusen
H	Mainz	2 - 0	VfL Bochum
A	Mainz	3 - 1	E.Frankfurt
H	Mainz	2 - 1	Bayern
A	Mainz	3 - 4	Wolfsburg
H	Mainz	2 - 0	Hoffenheim
A	Mainz	3 - 0	Holstein
H	Mainz	3 - 1	Dortmund
A	Mainz	0 - 0	Freiburg
H	Mainz	1 - 1	B. M'gladbach
H	Mainz	0 - 2	RB Leipzig
A	Mainz	3 - 0	St. Pauli

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

13 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

7 / 20

Won

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Augsburg	0 - 0	Freiburg
St. Pauli	0 - 1	Freiburg
VfL Bochum	0 - 1	Freiburg
Stuttgart	4 - 0	Freiburg
E.Frankfurt	4 - 1	Freiburg
Leverkusen	5 - 1	Freiburg
Hoffenheim	1 - 1	Freiburg
Dortmund	4 - 0	Freiburg
Union Berlin	0 - 0	Freiburg
RB Leipzig	3 - 1	Freiburg
W.Bremen	0 - 1	Freiburg
Heidenheim	0 - 3	Freiburg
Bayern	2 - 0	Freiburg
Union Berlin	2 - 1	Freiburg
Köln	0 - 0	Freiburg
Darmstadt	0 - 1	Freiburg
B. M'gladbach	0 - 3	Freiburg
VfL Bochum	1 - 2	Freiburg
Augsburg	2 - 1	Freiburg
Dortmund	3 - 0	Freiburg

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

11 / 20

Clean sheets

9 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Freiburg	0 - 0	RB Leipzig
A	Freiburg	0 - 0	Augsburg
H	Freiburg	5 - 0	W.Bremen
A	Freiburg	1 - 0	St. Pauli
H	Freiburg	1 - 0	Heidenheim
A	Freiburg	1 - 0	VfL Bochum
H	Freiburg	1 - 2	Bayern
A	Freiburg	0 - 4	Stuttgart
A	Freiburg	1 - 4	E.Frankfurt
H	Freiburg	3 - 2	Holstein
A	Freiburg	1 - 5	Leverkusen
H	Freiburg	3 - 2	Wolfsburg
A	Freiburg	1 - 1	Hoffenheim
H	Freiburg	3 - 1	B. M'gladbach
A	Freiburg	0 - 4	Dortmund
A	Freiburg	0 - 0	Union Berlin
H	Freiburg	0 - 0	Mainz
A	Freiburg	1 - 3	RB Leipzig
H	Freiburg	3 - 1	Augsburg
A	Freiburg	1 - 0	W.Bremen

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Freiburg have not lost to Mainz in 7 consecutive league meetings

Mainz

Freiburg

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

8 / 11

5 / 11

Clean sheets

6 / 11

3 / 11

M05

SCF

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Mainz
	0 - 1	Freiburg
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Mainz	1 - 0
	1 - 2	Freiburg
Mainz	5 - 0
Mainz	2 - 0
Mainz	4 - 2
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
Mainz	2 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw

Freiburg

Mainz

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

11 / 12

9 / 12

Clean sheets

3 / 12

1 / 12

M05

SCF

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Freiburg
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Freiburg	2 - 1
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	1 - 3	Mainz
Freiburg	3 - 0
	1 - 3	Mainz
Freiburg	2 - 1
Freiburg	1 - 0
	2 - 3	Mainz
	1 - 2	Mainz
Draw	1 - 1	Draw

Goal Statistics

With a PG of just 0.8, Sport-Club Freiburg look set to struggle here. Add in the fact that 1. FSV Mainz 05 haven't conceded a goal in 3 consecutive Bundesliga games, and it could be a long afternoon for J. Schuster's men.

	Mainz 3rd	Freiburg 5th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.7 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 18% 1 31% 2 26% 3 15% 4+ There is a 82% probability that Mainz will score 1 or more goals	0 47% 1 36% 2 14% 3 4+ There is a 83% probability of Freiburg scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	+6 Mainz’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	-30 Freiburg have scored 30% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.7 average goals scored	0.9 average goals scored
	0.7 conceded	1.6 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Bundesliga - 2024/2025 season

15%

better

M05

SCF

view stats

Games scored	19		17
Failed to score	6		8
Scored first	15		13
Goals scored	42		34
Avg. goals scored	1.7		1.4
Avg. shots per game	8		8
Avg. shots per goal	5		6
Conversion rate for	20		16
Avg. XG for	1.4		1.3
KickOff rating		+15%

11%

better

M05

SCF

view stats

Games conceded	16		15
Clean sheets	9		10
Conceded first	8		8
Goals conceded	26		36
Avg. goals conceded	1		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	10		10
Avg. shots/goal conceded	10		7
Conversion rate against	10%		15%
Avg. XG against	1.4		1.4
KickOff rating		+11%

Mainz v Freiburg Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

Mainz Bundesliga squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
25	14	5	10
R Zentner	J Burkardt	P Mwene	D Kohr

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
R Zentner GLK	25			3 -
P Mwene DEF	25		5	4 -
K Sano MID	25			3 -
A Caci MID	24	1	5	6 -
J Lee MID	24	6	5	4 -
D Kohr MID	23	1		10 -
P Nebel MID	23	7	3	3 -
A Sieb FWD	23	2	3	3 -
N Amiri MID	22	6	3	5 2
S Widmer DEF	21		1	3 -
J Burkardt FWD	21	14	2	-
D Costa DEF	16		1	-
H Hyun-seok MID	16		1	-
D Hoof DEF	15		1	3 -
N Weiper FWD	15	2		2 -
M Leitsch DEF	14	1		2 -
A Hanche-Olsen DEF	14		1	2 1
M Jenz DEF	14			3 -
N Veratschnig DEF	7			-
L Maloney MID	3			1 -
A Nordin FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
14	21	5	24
J Burkardt	N Amiri	P Mwene	N Amiri

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Burkardt FWD	14	21	2	11
P Nebel MID	7	14	3	16
J Lee MID	6	12	5	14
N Amiri MID	6	21	3	24
N Weiper FWD	2	9		3
A Sieb FWD	2	7	3	7
A Caci MID	1	11	5	21
D Kohr MID	1	4		7
M Leitsch DEF	1	1		2
N Veratschnig DEF				1
M Jenz DEF		3		2
A Hanche-Olsen DEF			1	1
R Zentner GLK				1
D Hoof DEF		3	1	5
H Hyun-seok MID		2	1	3
D Costa DEF			1	2
P Mwene DEF		3	5	11
S Widmer DEF			1	2
K Sano MID		2		8
A Nordin FWD				1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1138	54	153
D Kohr	D Kohr	K Sano

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
D Kohr MID	1138	54	122
N Amiri MID	1125	31	108
K Sano MID	1031	41	153
A Caci MID	920	50	110
R Zentner GLK	813	2	10
P Mwene DEF	801	38	83
D Costa DEF	739	32	65
J Lee MID	720	33	105
P Nebel MID	697	28	86
M Jenz DEF	641	31	86
D Hoof DEF	582	17	88
M Leitsch DEF	353	12	34
J Burkardt FWD	341	9	50
A Hanche-Olsen DEF	297	10	38
A Sieb FWD	175	7	43
H Hyun-seok MID	168	6	17
S Widmer DEF	138	8	18
N Weiper FWD	109	4	32
N Veratschnig DEF	19	2	4
L Maloney MID	12	1	3
A Nordin FWD	5	1	1

Freiburg Bundesliga squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
24	8	8	5
R Doan	V Grifo	V Grifo	P Osterhage

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
V Grifo FWD	25	8	8	2 -
R Doan FWD	25	8	5	1 -
M Ginter DEF	24	2		3 -
C Günter DEF	24	2	1	-
M Eggestein MID	24			4 -
P Lienhart DEF	23	1		4 -
L Höler FWD	23	2	4	1 -
N Atubolu GLK	22			2 -
P Osterhage MID	22			4 1
E Dinkçi FWD	21		3	-
L Kübler DEF	19	4		5 -
M Rosenfelder DEF	18			1 -
C Adamu FWD	18	2	2	2 1
M Röhl MID	16		1	2 -
N Höfler MID	16			3 -
K Sildillia DEF	14	2		2 -
M Gregoritsch FWD	14	1	3	3 -
J Makengo DEF	12			1 -
F Muslija MID	9			-
J Beste FWD	5		1	-
J. Manzambi MID	4			-
F Müller GLK	3			-
B. Ogbus DEF	2			-
M Philipp FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
8	23	8	29
V Grifo	V Grifo	V Grifo	V Grifo

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
V Grifo FWD	8	23	8	29
R Doan FWD	8	19	5	11
L Kübler DEF	4	9		7
L Höler FWD	2	13	4	10
K Sildillia DEF	2	2		1
C Adamu FWD	2	9	2	6
M Ginter DEF	2	4		5
C Günter DEF	2	6	1	17
M Gregoritsch FWD	1	4	3	3
P Lienhart DEF	1	1		2
M Eggestein MID		7		12
M Rosenfelder DEF				4
E Dinkçi FWD		3	3	18
M Röhl MID		3	1	4
N Höfler MID				3
P Osterhage MID				9
J Makengo DEF				1
F Muslija MID		2		2
J Beste FWD		1	1	1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1667	55	144
P Lienhart	R Doan	R Doan

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
P Lienhart DEF	1667	20	75
M Ginter DEF	1110	22	111
M Eggestein MID	1034	39	105
V Grifo FWD	1027	17	54
N Atubolu GLK	910		9
C Günter DEF	719	22	35
R Doan FWD	695	55	144
P Osterhage MID	688	36	82
L Kübler DEF	652	34	76
M Rosenfelder DEF	415	20	51
L Höler FWD	375	24	119
E Dinkçi FWD	351	21	45
N Höfler MID	346	33	69
K Sildillia DEF	289	13	38
M Röhl MID	217	15	57
C Adamu FWD	212	4	63
F Müller GLK	114
M Gregoritsch FWD	105	3	32
J Makengo DEF	85	11	12
F Muslija MID	82	5	11
J Beste FWD	24		1
J. Manzambi MID	20	1	3
M Philipp FWD	7
B. Ogbus DEF	4	1	1

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Fri 14th Mar, 19:30

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1. FSV Mainz 05 v Sport-Club Freiburg : Bundesliga match betting preview, prediction and odds

Mainz have played 25 matches so far this season and lay in 3rd place in the Bundesliga league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

Home League Performance

Freiburg are in 5th position in the Bundesliga on 41 points having played 25 matches so far this season. Freiburg are winless in the 5 games they have played against teams above them in the table and have conceded in 4 of those games.

Away League Performance

Performance against teams above them in the league

Mainz v Freiburg Bundesliga lLine ups will show here when available.

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