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Spain v Germany : Euro 24 match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 5th Jul, 17:00 BST, Mercedes-Benz Arena, Stuttgart

Friday evening sees Luis De la Fuente Castillo’s Spain and Julian Nagelsmann’s Germany go up against one another in a Euro 24 battle at the Mercedes-Benz Arena. In this preview you'll find odds from leading bookmakers for 17 different markets, alongside bespoke data that updates as you go between markets. Our predictions are based on 20-game form, so all stats are shown from a 20-game perspective. Home vs away and overall records can be found, while you'll also find head-to-head history later on in the preview.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals means, quite simply that there will be a maximum of 3 goals scored by Spain and Germany combined during the standard 90 minutes. Latest form stats and historical head-to-head (H2H) records have led us to this conclusion, and we're suggest there's a 74% chance of it being a winning tip. The top price currently available on under 3.5 goals is 1.29.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Spain are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 37% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.62.

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Spain 37%	13/8 5%	13/8 1%
Draw 27%	11/5 2%	11/5 2%
Germany 36%	7/4 5%	7/4
Draw 1-1 13%	11/2	19/4 4%
Spain 1-0 10%	8/1 6%	13/2
Germany 1-0 10%	17/2 6%	7/1
Spain 2-1 8%	10/1	8/1
Germany 2-1 8%	10/1	8/1
Draw 0-0 8%	17/2	7/1
Spain 2-0 6%	12/1	10/1
Germany 2-0 6%	14/1	11/1
Draw 2-2 5%	14/1	11/1
Spain 3-1 4%	22/1	16/1
Germany 3-1 3%	22/1	16/1
Spain 3-0 3%	28/1 12%	18/1
Germany 3-0 3%	28/1	20/1
Spain 3-2 2%	33/1	22/1
Germany 3-2 2%	33/1	22/1
Over 2.5 Goals 48%	1/1	-
Under 2.5 Goals 52%	4/5	-
Home 1st Goal 48%	10/11 4%	-
Away 1st Goal 48%	11/10	-
No 1st Goal 5%	17/2	-
BTTS - Yes 53%	8/11 4%	4/5
BTTS - No 47%	1/1 5%	19/20
BTTS - Home Win 17%	9/2	4/1 4%
BTTS - Draw 19%	10/3	16/5 3%
BTTS - Away Win 17%	9/2	4/1 5%
Home/draw 64%	2/5	4/9
Away/draw 63%	4/9 4%	10/21 1%
Home/away 73%	4/11 2%	7/20 2%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%	3/10 2%	-
Under 1.5 Goals 27%	5/2 3%	-
Over 3.5 Goals 26%	5/2 7%	-
Under 3.5 Goals 74%	3/10 1%	-
Over 4.5 Goals 12%	6/1	-
Under 4.5 Goals 88%	1/10	-
Over 5.5 Goals 5%	14/1	-
Under 5.5 Goals 95%	1/33	-
Over 0.5 Goals 92%	1/16	-
Under 0.5 Goals 8%	9/1 5%	-
Home DNB 56%	5/6 2%	4/5
Away DNB 55%	5/6 4%	10/11
Spain win to nil 20%	7/2 4%	-
Germany win to nil 20%	7/2	-
Spain / Spain 19%	7/2 4%	16/5 5%
Spain / Germany 3%	28/1	22/1
Spain / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1
Draw / Spain 13%	11/2	19/4 5%
Draw / Germany 13%	11/2	19/4 4%
Draw / Draw 17%	4/1	17/5 2%
Germany / Spain 3%	28/1	20/1
Germany / Germany 18%	7/2 5%	17/5 2%
Germany / Draw 6%	14/1	11/1

Win / draw / win form

Spain have won 6 consecutive games

Spain have not lost in 7 consecutive games

Germany have not lost in 8 consecutive games

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

10 / 20

Clean sheets

10 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Last 20 games
H	Spain	4 - 1	Georgia
A	Spain	1 - 0	Albania
H	Spain	1 - 0	Italy
H	Spain	3 - 0	Croatia
H	Spain	5 - 1	N Ireland
H	Spain	5 - 0	Andorra
H	Spain	3 - 3	Brazil
H	Spain	0 - 1	Colombia
H	Spain	3 - 1	Georgia
A	Spain	3 - 1	Cyprus
A	Spain	1 - 0	Norway
H	Spain	2 - 0	Scotland
H	Spain	6 - 0	Cyprus
A	Spain	7 - 1	Georgia
A	Spain	0 - 2	Scotland
H	Spain	3 - 0	Norway
A	Spain	0 - 0	Morocco
A	Spain	1 - 2	Japan
H	Spain	1 - 1	Germany
H	Spain	7 - 0	Costa Rica

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Lost

Last 20 games
H	Germany	2 - 0	Denmark
A	Germany	1 - 1	Switzerland
H	Germany	2 - 0	Hungary
H	Germany	5 - 1	Scotland
H	Germany	2 - 1	Greece
H	Germany	0 - 0	Ukraine
H	Germany	2 - 1	Netherlands
A	Germany	2 - 0	France
A	Germany	0 - 2	Austria
H	Germany	2 - 3	Turkey
A	Germany	2 - 2	Mexico
A	Germany	3 - 1	USA
H	Germany	2 - 1	France
H	Germany	1 - 4	Japan
H	Germany	0 - 2	Colombia
A	Germany	0 - 1	Poland
H	Germany	3 - 3	Ukraine
H	Germany	2 - 3	Belgium
H	Germany	2 - 0	Peru
A	Germany	4 - 2	Costa Rica

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Spain

Germany

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

2 / 2

1 / 2

Clean sheets

1 / 2

0 / 2

ESP

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Spain
Draw		1 - 1		Draw
Spain		6 - 0

Spain

Germany

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 5

2 / 5

Clean sheets

3 / 5

0 / 5

ESP

FIXTURE HISTORY
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Spain	6 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 1	Spain
	0 - 1	Spain

Goal Statistics

Germany's defensive record is to be admired, Julian Nagelsmann's men having conceded 1 or less in 8 consecutive Euro 24 games. An average PG rating of 1.3 for Spain makes sense in this context.

	Spain	Germany
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.3 goals	1.3 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 27% 1 35% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 62% probability that Spain will score no more than 1 goal	0 28% 1 36% 2 23% 3 10% 4+ There is a 64% probability that Germany will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away games
20 home / away games	=0 Spain’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	=0 Germany’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	2.8 average goals scored	1.9 average goals scored
	0.7 conceded	1.1 conceded

Attack defence ratings past 20 games

24%

better

ESP

GER

view stats

Games scored	17		16
Failed to score	3		4
Scored first	15		10
Goals scored	56		37
Avg. goals scored	2.8		1.9
Avg. shots per game	14		12
Avg. shots per goal	5		7
Conversion rate for	21		15
Avg. XG for	2.1		2.5
KickOff rating		+24%

42%

better

ESP

GER

view stats

Games conceded	10		15
Clean sheets	10		5
Conceded first	4		9
Goals conceded	14		28
Avg. goals conceded	0.7		1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	5		7
Avg. shots/goal conceded	8		5
Conversion rate against	13%		20%
Avg. XG against	1		0.8
KickOff rating		+42%

The line-ups for the Euro 24 match between Spain v Germany will show here when available.

Spain Euro 24 squad statistics 2024

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
57	36	9	10
Álvaro Morata	Álvaro Morata	F Ruiz	Rodri

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
Álvaro Morata FWD	76	36	6	7 -
Rodri MID	53	4	2	10 -
D Carvajal DEF	47	1	7	9 -
U Simón GLK	43			1 -
F Torres FWD	43	20	4	1 -
D Olmo MID	36	9	8	1 -
M Oyarzabal FWD	34	11	5	1 -
A Laporte DEF	32	1		6 -
J Navas DEF	28	2	5	1 -
F Ruiz MID	26	4	9	2 -
N Fernández DEF	25	1	1	2 -
M Merino MID	25	1	3	2 -
Pedri MID	23	2	2	-
N Williams FWD	17	3	6	-
R Normand DEF	15	1		4 -
Joselu FWD	12	5	3	-
L Yamal FWD	11	2	5	-
M Zubimendi MID	8			1 -
M Cucurella DEF	7			-
D Raya GLK	6			-
A Grimaldo DEF	6		1	-
Álex Baena MID	5	1		-
D Vivian DEF	3			1 -
F. Lopez Marin MID	2		1	-
A Pérez FWD	2	1	1	-
Álex Remiro GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
36	55	9	11
Álvaro Morata	Álvaro Morata	F Ruiz	Pedri

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
Álvaro Morata FWD	36	55	6	4
F Torres FWD	20	30	4	8
M Oyarzabal FWD	11	23	5	10
D Olmo MID	9	31	8	6
Joselu FWD	5	11	3	2
F Ruiz MID	4	17	9	9
Rodri MID	4	17	2	10
N Williams FWD	3	9	6	7
J Navas DEF	2	5	5	9
Pedri MID	2	6	2	11
L Yamal FWD	2	7	5	8
Álex Baena MID	1	2		3
N Fernández DEF	1	2	1	2
M Merino MID	1	8	3	6
A Pérez FWD	1	4	1	1
R Normand DEF	1	3		2
D Carvajal DEF	1	3	7	5
A Laporte DEF	1	3		2
F. Lopez Marin MID			1	2
M Zubimendi MID				1
A Grimaldo DEF		1	1	9
M Cucurella DEF		1		4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
3823	63	202
Rodri	Rodri	Rodri

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
Rodri MID	3823	63	202
A Laporte DEF	3056	28	99
D Carvajal DEF	1714	40	83
F Ruiz MID	1595	26	74
Pedri MID	1260	25	66
U Simón GLK	1242	1	11
J Navas DEF	1047	15	44
D Olmo MID	1040	24	107
R Normand DEF	1039	12	50
F Torres FWD	945	12	109
M Merino MID	825	28	91
Álvaro Morata FWD	796	23	165
M Oyarzabal FWD	496	12	51
N Williams FWD	352	17	60
M Zubimendi MID	332	9	19
N Fernández DEF	326	12	27
M Cucurella DEF	323	13	33
L Yamal FWD	294	14	57
D Vivian DEF	290	4	13
A Grimaldo DEF	280	5	15
Álex Baena MID	123	3	7
D Raya GLK	117
Joselu FWD	108	2	21
A Pérez FWD	41	2	7
F. Lopez Marin MID	21	2	4
Álex Remiro GLK	12

Germany Euro 24 squad statistics 2024

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
105	38	25	11
M Neuer	T Müller	T Müller	A Rüdiger

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
T Müller FWD	108	38	25	5 -
M Neuer GLK	105		1	-
J Kimmich DEF	90	6	19	10 -
T Kroos MID	78	14	15	6 -
I Gündogan MID	75	18	6	3 -
A Rüdiger DEF	72	3	4	11 -
L Sané FWD	64	13	7	4 1
K Havertz MID	50	18	13	4 -
M Stegen GLK	37			-
J Musiala MID	33	5	4	1 -
J Tah DEF	28			4 -
D Raum DEF	23		4	2 -
F Wirtz MID	22	2	4	-
N Füllkrug FWD	20	13	2	1 -
B Henrichs DEF	16		3	1 -
N Schlotterbeck DEF	14		2	3 -
R Koch DEF	9			2 -
R Andrich MID	9			3 -
P Groß MID	8	1		1 -
M Mittelstädt DEF	7	1	1	1 -
C Führich FWD	5			-
W Anton DEF	3			-
D Undav FWD	3			-
M Beier FWD	2			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
38	35	25	20
T Müller	K Havertz	T Müller	J Kimmich

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
T Müller FWD	38	27	25	11
I Gündogan MID	18	29	6	5
K Havertz MID	18	35	13	8
T Kroos MID	14	22	15	18
L Sané FWD	13	27	7	17
N Füllkrug FWD	13	20	2	6
J Kimmich DEF	6	21	19	20
J Musiala MID	5	15	4	12
A Rüdiger DEF	3	7	4	4
F Wirtz MID	2	7	4	8
P Groß MID	1	2		2
M Mittelstädt DEF	1	3	1	9
J Tah DEF				2
D Raum DEF			4	7
M Neuer GLK			1
B Henrichs DEF		1	3	3
N Schlotterbeck DEF		1	2	3
R Andrich MID		1		2
C Führich FWD		1		1
W Anton DEF				1
D Undav FWD		3		1
M Beier FWD		1		4

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
4273	74	191
J Kimmich	T Kroos	J Kimmich

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
J Kimmich DEF	4273	71	191
A Rüdiger DEF	3483	39	123
T Kroos MID	3006	74	161
I Gündogan MID	2833	50	130
M Neuer GLK	1610		13
J Tah DEF	1358	19	63
T Müller FWD	1180	34	141
K Havertz MID	1146	24	118
L Sané FWD	1141	24	148
J Musiala MID	757	23	150
D Raum DEF	704	34	71
N Schlotterbeck DEF	657	18	51
F Wirtz MID	646	16	49
R Andrich MID	557	18	31
M Stegen GLK	487		2
P Groß MID	455	8	16
M Mittelstädt DEF	318	11	26
B Henrichs DEF	286	17	30
R Koch DEF	185	10	17
N Füllkrug FWD	160	2	34
W Anton DEF	82		3
C Führich FWD	81	2	7
D Undav FWD	25	2	2
M Beier FWD	17		3

International Euro 24 match betting previews, predictions and odds

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Sat 6th Jul, 17:00

Netherlands v Turkey

Sat 6th Jul, 20:00

Spain v Germany : Euro 24 match betting preview, prediction and odds

The line-ups for the Euro 24 match between Spain v Germany will show here when available.

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