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Newcastle United v Manchester City : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 28th Sep, 12:30 BST, St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Saturday lunch time sees Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United and Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City go head to head in a English Premier League battle at the St. James' Park. We provide predictions based on in-depth statistical analysis of each side, across seventeen of the main betting markets. Data shown and the odds is designed to fit each market, and head-to-head statistics are included for all.

Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

This Premier League clash, with Newcastle and Man City going head-to-head, offers real intrigue in the popular over market, with at least 3 goals predicted to be scored in total. Strikers for both will look to come out on the front foot and, having analysed the relevant stats and odds, we're confident that a bet on over 2.5 goals is the one to go for.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 57% chance of Man City coming away with a win.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Newcastle
22%
4.754.50
2%
Draw
21%
3.80
3%
4.20
5%
Man City
57%
1.70
2%
1.67
2%
Man City 2-1
10%
9.507.50
Draw 1-1
9%
8.50
6%
8.00
7%
Man City 2-0
8%
12.00
9%
9.50
6%
Man City 1-0
7%
13.00
8%
9.00
6%
Man City 3-1
7%
13.0010.00
Draw 2-2
6%
13.0011.00
Newcastle 2-1
6%
17.0012.00
Man City 3-0
5%
17.0012.00
Newcastle 1-0
4%
23.00
10%
15.00
15%
Man City 3-2
4%
21.0013.00
13%
Man City 4-1
4%
23.00
12%
15.00
12%
Draw 0-0
3%
19.00
12%
15.00
15%
Man City 4-0
3%
29.0017.00
11%
Newcastle 2-0
3%
34.00
17%
19.00
Newcastle 3-2
3%
34.0021.00
Over 2.5 Goals
66%
1.50
2%
1.44
4%
Under 2.5 Goals
34%
2.62
5%
2.60
9%
Home 1st Goal
44%
2.62-
Away 1st Goal
54%
1.44
4%
-
No 1st Goal
2%
19.00
12%
-
BTTS - Yes
63%
1.50
2%
1.50
3%
BTTS - No
37%
2.50
5%
2.45
7%
BTTS - Home Win
14%
7.006.00
8%
BTTS - Draw
17%
4.334.60
BTTS - Away Win
32%
2.88
4%
2.75
5%
Home/draw
43%
2.10
2%
2.15
Away/draw
78%
1.181.20
Home/away
79%
1.25
3%
1.22
Over 1.5 Goals
85%
1.14
3%
1.13
2%
Under 1.5 Goals
15%
5.50
10%
5.00
9%
Over 3.5 Goals
44%
2.10
9%
2.10
7%
Under 3.5 Goals
56%
1.73
7%
1.65
5%
Over 4.5 Goals
25%
3.75
6%
3.40
8%
Under 4.5 Goals
75%
1.29
3%
1.29
6%
Over 5.5 Goals
13%
6.50
7%
6.00
8%
Under 5.5 Goals
87%
1.11
1%
1.10
2%
Over 0.5 Goals
97%
1.021.01
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
3%
17.0015.00
15%
Home DNB
37%
3.50
3%
3.30
Away DNB
71%
1.29
1%
1.29
Newcastle win to nil
9%
11.00
10%
-
Man City win to nil
25%
3.75
7%
-
Newcastle / Newcastle
12%
7.506.50
7%
Newcastle / Man City
5%
19.0015.00
Newcastle / Draw
6%
15.0013.00
Draw / Newcastle
8%
11.00
10%
9.00
Draw / Man City
17%
5.004.60
2%
Draw / Draw
12%
7.50
7%
6.50
8%
Man City / Newcastle
3%
34.0026.00
Man City / Man City
32%
2.62
5%
2.50
Man City / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
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Win / draw / win Premier League table
Newcastle
Won
Draw
Lost
Scores
Man City
HOME AWAY TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY
Sep 28
Feb 15
 Man City Away4400812 
-
-
Nov 2
May 18
 Arsenal4310510 
Sep 22
Feb 1
-
-
 Newcastle Home4310310 
Feb 15
Sep 28
Dec 4
Feb 26
 Liverpool430169 
Feb 22
Dec 1
Dec 26
Apr 19
 A Villa430119 
Apr 26
Dec 21
Oct 19
May 3
 Brighton422048 
Mar 15
Nov 9
Feb 22
Nov 10
 Nottm Forest422028 
Dec 4
Mar 8
May 10
Oct 27
 Chelsea421137 
Jan 25
w
 
0-2F
Apr 2
Dec 7
 Brentford420206 
w
 
2-1A
Jan 14
Apr 12
Dec 29
 Man Utd420206 
Dec 14
Apr 5
Jan 18
d
 
1-1A
 Bournemouth412105 
May 18
Nov 2
Feb 1
Sep 21
 Fulham412105 
Oct 5
May 25
w
 
2-1F
Jan 4
 Spurs411224 
Nov 23
Feb 25
Nov 25
Mar 8
 West Ham4112-14 
Jan 4
w
 
1-3F
Dec 14
Apr 5
 Leicester4022-22 
Apr 2
Dec 29
Mar 15
Nov 30
 C Palace4022-32 
Apr 12
Dec 7
Apr 26
Dec 21
 Ipswich4022-52 
w
 
4-1A
Jan 18
Jan 15
w
 
1-2A
 Wolves4013-71 
May 3
Oct 20
w
 
1-0F
Jan 25
 Southampton4004-70 
Oct 26
May 10
May 25
Oct 5
 Everton4004-90 
Dec 26
Apr 19
Win / draw / win form
7
Man City have won 7 consecutive away league games
10
Newcastle have not lost in 10 consecutive home league games
13
Man City have not lost in 13 consecutive away league games
Newcastle 3RD
20 league games
Home
10
Overall
Goals: Scored
47
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Newcastle2 - 1Spurs
Newcastle1 - 0Southampton
Newcastle1 - 1Brighton
Newcastle5 - 1Sheff Utd
Newcastle4 - 0Spurs
Newcastle1 - 1Everton
Newcastle4 - 3West Ham
Newcastle3 - 0Wolves
Newcastle2 - 2Bournemouth
Newcastle4 - 4Luton
Newcastle2 - 3Man City
Newcastle1 - 3Nottm Forest
Newcastle3 - 0Fulham
Newcastle1 - 0Man Utd
Newcastle4 - 1Chelsea
Newcastle1 - 0Arsenal
Newcastle4 - 0C Palace
Newcastle2 - 0Burnley
Newcastle1 - 0Brentford
Newcastle1 - 2Liverpool
Goals: Scored
47
Conceded
32
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
11
Draw
5
L
4
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ANewcastle2 - 1Wolves
HNewcastle2 - 1Spurs
ANewcastle1 - 1Bournemouth
HNewcastle1 - 0Southampton
ANewcastle4 - 2Brentford
ANewcastle2 - 3Man Utd
HNewcastle1 - 1Brighton
ANewcastle4 - 1Burnley
HNewcastle5 - 1Sheff Utd
ANewcastle0 - 2C Palace
HNewcastle4 - 0Spurs
ANewcastle1 - 0Fulham
HNewcastle1 - 1Everton
HNewcastle4 - 3West Ham
ANewcastle2 - 3Chelsea
HNewcastle3 - 0Wolves
ANewcastle1 - 4Arsenal
HNewcastle2 - 2Bournemouth
ANewcastle3 - 2Nottm Forest
HNewcastle4 - 4Luton
Man City 1ST
20 league games
Away
7
Overall
Goals: Scored
47
Conceded
19
Games: Scored
18 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
2 / 20
Won
15
D
2
L
3
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
West Ham1 - 3Man City
Chelsea0 - 2Man City
Spurs0 - 2Man City
Fulham0 - 4Man City
Nottm Forest0 - 2Man City
Brighton0 - 4Man City
C Palace2 - 4Man City
Liverpool1 - 1Man City
Bournemouth0 - 1Man City
Brentford1 - 3Man City
Newcastle2 - 3Man City
Everton1 - 3Man City
Luton1 - 2Man City
A Villa1 - 0Man City
Chelsea4 - 4Man City
Man Utd0 - 3Man City
Arsenal1 - 0Man City
Wolves2 - 1Man City
West Ham1 - 3Man City
Sheff Utd1 - 2Man City
Goals: Scored
53
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
17
D
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HMan City2 - 1Brentford
AMan City3 - 1West Ham
HMan City4 - 1Ipswich
AMan City2 - 0Chelsea
HMan City3 - 1West Ham
AMan City2 - 0Spurs
AMan City4 - 0Fulham
HMan City5 - 1Wolves
AMan City2 - 0Nottm Forest
AMan City4 - 0Brighton
HMan City5 - 1Luton
AMan City4 - 2C Palace
HMan City4 - 1A Villa
HMan City0 - 0Arsenal
AMan City1 - 1Liverpool
HMan City3 - 1Man Utd
AMan City1 - 0Bournemouth
HMan City1 - 0Brentford
HMan City1 - 1Chelsea
HMan City2 - 0Everton
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Man City have beaten Newcastle in 3 consecutive league meetings
10
Man City have not lost to Newcastle in 10 consecutive league meetings
League games at Newcastle since 1994
Newcastle
Man City
Goals: Scored
32
41
Games: Scored
15 / 24
19 / 24
Clean sheets
5 / 24
9 / 24
NEW
7
D
5
MCI
12
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Newcastle
2 - 3Man City
Draw3 - 3Draw
0 - 4Man City
3 - 4Man City
Draw2 - 2Draw
Newcastle2 - 1
0 - 1Man City
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 2Man City
0 - 2Man City
1 - 3Man City
0 - 2Man City
1 - 3Man City
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 2Man City
0 - 1Man City
Newcastle1 - 0
Newcastle4 - 3
Newcastle3 - 0
Newcastle2 - 0
0 - 1Man City
Newcastle3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Newcastle2 - 0
League games at Man City since 1994
Man City
Newcastle
Goals: Scored
60
13
Games: Scored
21 / 24
11 / 24
Clean sheets
13 / 24
3 / 24
NEW
1
D
4
MCI
19
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Man City
Man City1 - 0
Man City2 - 0
Man City5 - 0
Man City2 - 0
Man City5 - 0
Man City2 - 1
Man City3 - 1
Man City6 - 1
Man City5 - 0
Man City4 - 0
Man City4 - 0
Man City3 - 1
Man City2 - 1
Man City2 - 1
Man City3 - 1
Draw0 - 0Draw
Man City3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Man City1 - 0
Man City1 - 0
0 - 1Newcastle
Draw3 - 3Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Man City2 - 1
Goal Statistics

Manchester City's defensive record is to be admired, Pep Guardiola's men having conceded 1 or less in 11 consecutive English Premier League matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.3 for Newcastle United makes sense in this context.

Manchester City's forwards have been excellent of late, finding the net twice or more in 13 consecutive English Premier League games. A PG of 2.1 suggests that run should continue on Saturday lunch time.

Newcastle 3rd Man City 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.3
goals
2.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
28%
1
36%
2
23%
3
10%
4+
There is a 64% probability that Newcastle will score no more than 1 goal
0
12%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4+
16%
There is a 62% probability that Man City will score 2 or more goals in this match
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+21
Newcastle have scored 21% more goals at home than predicted
+26
Man City have scored 26% more goals when away than predicted
2.4
average goals scored
2.4
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.0
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/277851/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Newcastle
PG (predicted goals)
Man City
1.3
2.1
Attack rating
NEW
MCI
13%
better
view stats
Games scored4
4
Failed to score0
0
Scored first2
2
Goals scored6
11
Avg. goals scored1.5
2.8
Avg. shots per game7
13
Avg. shots per goal5
5
Conversion rate for22
22
Avg. XG for1.2
1.9
KickOff rating
+13%
Defence rating
6%
better
NEW
MCI
view stats
Games conceded3
3
Clean sheets1
1
Conceded first2
2
Goals conceded3
3
Avg. goals conceded0.8
0.8
Avg. shots/game conceded11
5
Avg. shots/goal conceded14
7
Conversion rate against7%
14%
Avg. XG against1.8
0.9
KickOff rating
+6%

Newcastle v Man City Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

Newcastle Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
4213
N Pope H BarnesL KellyD Burn
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Pope  GLK4
-
L Kelly DEF41
1
-
L Hall DEF4
1
-
T Livramento  DEF4
-
D Burn DEF4
3
-
S Longstaff MID4
1
-
Joelinton MID41
3
-
B Guimarães MID41
1
-
H Barnes FWD421
-
J Murphy FWD41
1
-
A Gordon FWD41
-
A Isak FWD411
-
E Krafth DEF3
-
F Schär DEF21
1
K Trippier DEF2
-
S Tonali MID2
-
J Willock MID21
-
M Almirón FWD2
-
Man City Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
4921
EdersonE HaalandB SilvaR Dias
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Ederson GLK41
-
R Lewis DEF41
-
J Gvardiol DEF4
-
R Dias DEF4
1
-
M Akanji DEF4
1
-
M Kovacic MID41
1
-
K Bruyne MID411
1
-
B Silva MID42
-
E Haaland FWD49
1
-
M Nunes MID31
-
I Gündogan MID3
-
J Doku FWD3
-
J Grealish FWD3
1
-
S Sávio FWD31
1
-
J Stones DEF2
1
-
K Walker DEF2
-
N Aké  DEF1
-
J McAtee MID1
-
Rodri MID1
-
P Foden FWD1
-