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Manchester City v Aston Villa : Premier League match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 22nd Apr, 20:00 BST, Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side will have home backing in the English Premier League on Tuesday night, as Unai Emery's Aston Villa travel to the Etihad Stadium. The predictions shown are based on complex statistical analysis of both teams, across seventeen of the main betting markets. The data and the odds are unique to each market, and head-to-head stats are included across the board.


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Best Tip: Over 2.5 goals

As loyal fans of A Villa ready themselves for this clash, they have reason to expect some real entertainment. After reviewing the relevant statistics and past head-to-head (H2H) fixture history, it looks as though over 2.5 goals will be a bet worth taking, as both sides know they way to goal and either could ultimately get the win. The prediction and odds are aligned: over 2.5 goals is a smart bet.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Man City are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 58% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 1.70.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Man City
58%
7/10
2%
-
Draw
21%
16/5
5%
-
A Villa
21%
16/5-
Man City 2-1
10%
17/2
6%
-
Draw 1-1
9%
17/2
12%
-
Man City 2-0
8%
11/1
9%
-
Man City 1-0
8%
11/1
9%
-
Man City 3-1
7%
12/1
13%
-
Draw 2-2
6%
14/1-
Man City 3-0
6%
16/1-
A Villa 2-1
6%
14/1-
A Villa 1-0
5%
20/1
24%
-
Man City 3-2
4%
20/1
9%
-
Draw 0-0
4%
18/1
12%
-
Man City 4-1
3%
22/1
12%
-
Man City 4-0
3%
28/1-
A Villa 2-0
3%
28/1
12%
-
A Villa 3-2
2%
33/1-
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
1/2
4%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
37%
13/8
10%
-
Home 1st Goal
55%
4/9
4%
-
Away 1st Goal
43%
13/8-
No 1st Goal
2%
18/1
12%
-
BTTS - Yes
61%
8/15
3%
-
BTTS - No
39%
11/8
6%
-
BTTS - Home Win
31%
15/8
10%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
15/4-
BTTS - Away Win
13%
11/2-
Home/draw
79%
2/9-
Away/draw
42%
11/10
2%
-
Home/away
79%
2/9-
Over 1.5 Goals
84%
1/7
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
16%
9/2
10%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
41%
6/5
12%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
59%
4/6
9%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
23%
11/4
13%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
77%
2/7
6%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
11%
6/1
13%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
89%
1/10
2%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
96%
1/40-
Under 0.5 Goals
4%
16/1-
Home DNB
72%
1/3-
Away DNB
36%
9/4-
Man City win to nil
27%
5/2-
A Villa win to nil
9%
9/1
11%
-
Man City / Man City
32%
7/4-
Man City / A Villa
3%
28/1
15%
-
Man City / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Man City
17%
4/1-
Draw / A Villa
9%
9/1-
Draw / Draw
12%
13/2
7%
-
A Villa / Man City
5%
18/1
10%
-
A Villa / A Villa
12%
13/2
7%
-
A Villa / Draw
6%
14/1-
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Win / draw / win Premier League table

Man City have played 32 matches so far this season and lay in 5th place in the Premier League league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 24 games against teams below in the table, having won 13, drawn 6 and lost 5 matches. They have kept 7 clean sheets and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. Man City have outscored their opponents by 62 goals to 49 goals.

Home League Performance

Man City have played 16 games at home winning 9, drawing 4 and losing 3 games. They have scored 36 goals, kept 4 clean sheets and conceded 21 goals at home.

A Villa are in 7th position in the Premier League on 54 points having played 32 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

7 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 27 goals and kept 4 clean sheets. They have scored 22 goals in total and failed to score in 4 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

10 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 5 games, drawn 2 and won 3. A Villa have conceded 19 goals, scored 11, failed to score in 4 fixtures and have kept no clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Man City
A Villa
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Liverpool3223724376 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-0A
d
 
2-2A
l
 
2-0A
2
Arsenal32171233063 
d
 
2-2F
l
 
5-1A
l
 
0-2A
d
 
2-2A
3
Nottm Forest3217691357 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
2-1F
4
Newcastle3117591656 
w
 
4-0F
d
 
1-1F
Apr 19
l
 
3-0A
5
Man City Home3216792055 
-
-
w
 
2-1F
Apr 22
6
Chelsea3215981754 
w
 
3-1A
w
 
0-2F
w
 
2-1A
l
 
3-0A
7
A Villa Away321598354 
Apr 22
l
 
2-1A
-
-
8
Bournemouth32139101248 
May 18
l
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1F
May 10
9
Fulham3213910448 
w
 
3-2A
May 25
May 3
w
 
1-3A
10
Brighton3212128248 
d
 
2-2F
l
 
2-1F
d
 
2-2A
w
 
0-3F
11
Brentford3212713443 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
2-2F
w
 
3-1F
w
 
0-1F
12
C Palace31111010143 
w
 
5-2A
d
 
2-2A
d
 
2-2A
l
 
4-1A
13
Everton3281410-438 
d
 
1-1F
Apr 19
w
 
3-2A
w
 
0-1F
14
Man Utd3210814-738 
l
 
1-2F
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
0-00-0
May 25
15
Spurs32114171137 
l
 
0-4A
w
 
0-1F
May 18
l
 
4-1F
16
Wolves3210517-1435 
May 2
w
 
1-2A
w
 
3-1A
l
 
2-0A
17
West Ham329815-1835 
w
 
4-1F
w
 
1-3F
d
 
1-1F
w
 
1-2F
18
Ipswich324919-3421 
w
 
4-1A
w
 
0-6F
d
 
1-1A
d
 
2-2A
19
Leicester324622-4518 
w
 
2-0F
w
 
0-2F
w
 
2-1F
w
 
1-2F
20
Southampton322426-5410 
w
 
1-0F
May 10
w
 
1-0F
w
 
0-3F
Win / draw / win form
3
A Villa have won 3 consecutive away league games
3
A Villa have kept a clean sheet for 3 consecutive away league games
Man City 5TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
53
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Man City5 - 2C Palace
Man City2 - 0Leicester
Man City2 - 2Brighton
Man City0 - 2Liverpool
Man City4 - 0Newcastle
Man City3 - 1Chelsea
Man City4 - 1West Ham
Man City1 - 1Everton
Man City1 - 2Man Utd
Man City3 - 0Nottm Forest
Man City0 - 4Spurs
Man City0 - 0Southampton
Man City3 - 2Fulham
Man City2 - 2Arsenal
Man City2 - 1Brentford
Man City4 - 1Ipswich
Man City3 - 1West Ham
Man City5 - 1Wolves
Man City5 - 1Luton
Man City4 - 1A Villa
Goals: Scored
40
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
9
Draw
5
Lost
6
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HMan City5 - 2C Palace
AMan City0 - 0Man Utd
HMan City2 - 0Leicester
HMan City2 - 2Brighton
AMan City0 - 1Nottm Forest
AMan City1 - 0Spurs
HMan City0 - 2Liverpool
HMan City4 - 0Newcastle
AMan City1 - 5Arsenal
HMan City3 - 1Chelsea
AMan City6 - 0Ipswich
AMan City2 - 2Brentford
HMan City4 - 1West Ham
AMan City2 - 0Leicester
HMan City1 - 1Everton
AMan City1 - 2A Villa
HMan City1 - 2Man Utd
AMan City2 - 2C Palace
HMan City3 - 0Nottm Forest
AMan City0 - 2Liverpool
A Villa 7TH
20 league games
Away
3
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
37
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
8
D
2
Lost
10
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Southampton0 - 3A Villa
Brighton0 - 3A Villa
Brentford0 - 1A Villa
C Palace4 - 1A Villa
Wolves2 - 0A Villa
Arsenal2 - 2A Villa
Everton0 - 1A Villa
Newcastle3 - 0A Villa
Nottm Forest2 - 1A Villa
Chelsea3 - 0A Villa
Liverpool2 - 0A Villa
Spurs4 - 1A Villa
Fulham1 - 3A Villa
Ipswich2 - 2A Villa
Leicester1 - 2A Villa
West Ham1 - 2A Villa
C Palace5 - 0A Villa
Brighton1 - 0A Villa
Arsenal0 - 2A Villa
Man City4 - 1A Villa
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
27
Games: Scored
17 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
3 / 20
Won
10
Draw
5
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
AA Villa3 - 0Southampton
HA Villa2 - 1Nottm Forest
AA Villa3 - 0Brighton
AA Villa1 - 0Brentford
AA Villa1 - 4C Palace
HA Villa2 - 1Chelsea
HA Villa2 - 2Liverpool
HA Villa1 - 1Ipswich
AA Villa0 - 2Wolves
HA Villa1 - 1West Ham
AA Villa2 - 2Arsenal
AA Villa1 - 0Everton
HA Villa2 - 1Leicester
HA Villa2 - 2Brighton
AA Villa0 - 3Newcastle
HA Villa2 - 1Man City
AA Villa1 - 2Nottm Forest
HA Villa1 - 0Southampton
HA Villa3 - 1Brentford
AA Villa0 - 3Chelsea
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
14
Man City have beaten A Villa in 14 consecutive home league meetings
14
Man City have not lost to A Villa in 14 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Man City since 1992
Man City
A Villa
Goals: Scored
65
19
Games: Scored
23 / 24
13 / 24
Clean sheets
11 / 24
1 / 24
MCI
20
D
2
AVL
2
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Man City
Man City4 - 1
Man City3 - 1
Man City3 - 2
Man City2 - 0
Man City3 - 0
Man City4 - 0
Man City3 - 2
Man City4 - 0
Man City5 - 0
Man City4 - 1
Man City4 - 0
Man City3 - 1
Man City2 - 0
Man City1 - 0
0 - 2A Villa
Man City3 - 1
Man City2 - 0
Man City4 - 1
Man City3 - 1
1 - 3A Villa
Man City1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Man City3 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at A Villa since 1993
A Villa
Man City
Goals: Scored
27
34
Games: Scored
18 / 25
20 / 25
Clean sheets
5 / 25
7 / 25
MCI
10
D
8
AVL
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT A Villa
A Villa2 - 1
A Villa1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Man City
1 - 2Man City
1 - 6Man City
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 2Man City
A Villa3 - 2
0 - 1Man City
0 - 1Man City
A Villa1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
A Villa4 - 2
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 3Man City
0 - 1Man City
1 - 2Man City
Draw1 - 1Draw
A Villa1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 1Man City
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
A Villa3 - 1
Goal Statistics

Manchester City's forwards have been superb of late, finding the net twice or more in 3 consecutive English Premier League matches. A PG of 2.1 suggests that run should continue on Tuesday night.

Man City 5th A Villa 7th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
2.1
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
13%
1
26%
2
27%
3
19%
4+
15%
There is a 61% probability that Man City will score 2 or more goals in this match
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that A Villa will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+21
Man City have scored 21% more goals at home than predicted
-10
A Villa’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
2.7
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
1.3
conceded
1.9
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Premier League - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/278129/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Man City
PG (predicted goals)
A Villa
2.1
1.2
Attack rating
8%
better
MCI
AVL
view stats
Games scored26
26
Failed to score6
6
Scored first17
15
Goals scored61
49
Avg. goals scored1.9
1.5
Avg. shots per game12
9
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for17
17
Avg. XG for1.8
1.6
KickOff rating
+8%
Defence rating
10%
better
MCI
AVL
view stats
Games conceded23
26
Clean sheets9
6
Conceded first14
16
Goals conceded42
46
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded7
9
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
6
Conversion rate against18%
15%
Avg. XG against1.3
1.4
KickOff rating
+10%

Man City v A Villa Premier League lLine ups will show here when available.

Man City Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
302187
J GvardiolE HaalandS SávioM Kovacic
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Gvardiol DEF315
1
-
I Gündogan MID284
1
-
E Haaland FWD28213
2
-
B Silva MID2724
6
-
R Lewis DEF2612
4
1
M Kovacic MID2651
7
-
S Sávio FWD2618
5
-
P Foden FWD2572
2
-
J Doku FWD2335
1
-
Ederson GLK224
2
-
K Bruyne MID2237
2
-
R Dias DEF21
5
-
M Nunes MID214
3
-
M Akanji DEF20
3
-
J Grealish FWD1911
4
-
J McAtee MID123
1
-
S Ortega GLK11
1
-
J Stones DEF112
2
-
N Aké  DEF10
-
O Marmoush FWD106
-
N González  MID7
3
-
A. Khusanov DEF6
1
-
Rodri MID2
-
O Bobb FWD2
-
V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis DEF1
-
A Villa Premier League squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
311369
Y TielemansO WatkinsO WatkinsM Rogers
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
Y Tielemans MID3125
4
-
O Watkins FWD31136
1
-
E Martínez GLK30
4
-
M Rogers MID3086
9
-
L Digne DEF294
3
-
E Konsa DEF271
-
J McGinn MID273
6
-
I Maatsen DEF232
2
-
J Ramsey MID2313
1
-
L Bailey FWD2312
4
-
M Cash DEF2011
7
-
P Torres DEF191
1
-
B Kamara MID19
2
-
A Onana MID192
4
-
R Barkley MID1631
4
-
T Mings DEF11
2
-
L Bogarde MID8
2
-
D Malen FWD82
-
M Rashford FWD712
-
A Disasi DEF6
2
-
A García DEF6
-
M Asensio FWD631
1
-
R Olsen GLK3
-