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Newport County v Carlisle United : League Two match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 11th Feb, 19:45 BST, Rodney Parade, Newport

Nélson Marques Jardim welcomes Paul Simpson to the Rodney Parade on Saturday afternoon, as their Newport County and Carlisle United teams clash in the League Two. This preview has odds from leading bookmakers for seventeen different betting markets, alongside supporting data that changes as you go through them. Our predictions are based on 20-game form, so all stats are shown for each side's last 20 too. Home, away and overall performance can be viewed, while there's also head to head (H2H) history a little further down the page.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top League Two Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We make over 1.5 goals our best tip on this fixture, meaning that the teams will score at least two goals between them during the standard 90 mins. Both Newport and Carlisle's recent form stats suggest it's likely, while their head-to-head (H2H) record adds further weight to the argument. The bookies make it the most likely outcome in this market too, available at 1.29.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Newport are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 45% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 3.10.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Newport
45%
21/10
5%
21/10
5%
Draw
25%
23/10
3%
12/5
Carlisle
30%
5/4
2%
5/4
2%
Draw 1-1
12%
11/25/1
Newport 1-0
10%
9/115/2
6%
Newport 2-1
9%
10/1
8%
9/1
Carlisle 1-0
8%
15/2
6%
13/2
7%
Newport 2-0
8%
16/112/1
Carlisle 2-1
7%
8/115/2
6%
Draw 0-0
6%
9/115/2
Draw 2-2
6%
12/1
13%
11/1
Newport 3-1
5%
22/1
12%
18/1
Carlisle 2-0
5%
10/19/1
5%
Newport 3-0
4%
33/122/1
12%
Carlisle 3-1
3%
16/114/1
15%
Newport 3-2
3%
33/122/1
Carlisle 3-2
2%
25/120/1
Carlisle 3-0
2%
20/116/1
13%
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
19/2010/11
Under 2.5 Goals
48%
17/205/6
2%
Home 1st Goal
51%
13/10
3%
-
Away 1st Goal
45%
8/11-
No 1st Goal
4%
9/1-
BTTS - Yes
55%
8/118/11
1%
BTTS - No
45%
1/11/1
3%
BTTS - Home Win
22%
5/1
8%
9/2
4%
BTTS - Draw
19%
10/3
4%
10/3
BTTS - Away Win
15%
7/216/5
Home/draw
70%
8/13
3%
8/13
3%
Away/draw
55%
4/11
2%
4/11
2%
Home/away
75%
1/3
2%
3/10
Over 1.5 Goals
76%
2/73/10
Under 1.5 Goals
24%
5/223/10
2%
Over 3.5 Goals
30%
9/4
4%
11/5
Under 3.5 Goals
70%
1/3
2%
1/3
2%
Over 4.5 Goals
15%
11/2
7%
5/1
Under 4.5 Goals
85%
1/9
1%
1/9
Over 5.5 Goals
6%
14/111/1
Under 5.5 Goals
94%
1/331/40
Over 0.5 Goals
94%
1/20
1%
1/18
Under 0.5 Goals
6%
10/1
10%
8/1
6%
Home DNB
62%
6/5
2%
6/5
4%
Away DNB
48%
8/13
3%
8/13
5%
Newport win to nil
23%
9/2-
Carlisle win to nil
15%
3/1
7%
-
Newport / Newport
16%
4/1
9%
19/5
4%
Newport / Carlisle
4%
25/118/1
Newport / Draw
6%
14/111/1
Draw / Newport
12%
6/111/2
7%
Draw / Carlisle
15%
9/217/4
5%
Draw / Draw
16%
4/119/5
Carlisle / Newport
3%
28/122/1
Carlisle / Carlisle
22%
11/4
4%
13/5
6%
Carlisle / Draw
6%
12/111/1
bet365
Win / draw / win League Two table

Newport have played 23 matches so far this season and lay in 18th place in the League Two league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 5 games against teams below in the table, having won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 matches. They have kept 1 clean sheet and have failed to score in 2 fixtures. Newport have outscored their opponents by 30 goals to 19 goals.

Home League Performance

Newport have played 10 games at home winning 5, drawing 2 and losing 3 games. They have scored 19 goals, kept 2 clean sheets and conceded 16 goals at home.

Carlisle are in 24th position in the League Two on 18 points having played 24 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

7 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 21 goals and kept 4 clean sheets. They have scored 9 goals in total and failed to score in 5 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

24 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 14 games, drawn 6 and won 4. Carlisle have conceded 38 goals, scored 19, failed to score in 10 fixtures and have kept 6 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Newport
Carlisle
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Walsall2316432352 
Apr 21
l
 
2-0A
Mar 4
l
 
3-1A
2
Crewe2411941142 
w
 
2-1F
Feb 8
d
 
1-1F
l
 
3-2F
3
Salford2412661042 
w
 
3-1F
Jan 28
May 3
w
 
0-1F
4
Port Vale251186441 
l
 
1-4A
Jan 18
Apr 18
d
 
0-00-0
5
AFC Wim2312471640 
l
 
1-2A
d
 
2-2A
Mar 15
l
 
4-0A
6
Notts C2411761240 
Mar 29
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-2A
Jan 28
7
Doncaster251177540 
w
 
3-1A
Mar 1
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 29
8
Bradford241086638 
Feb 15
l
 
3-1A
Jan 18
l
 
2-1A
9
Grimsby2512112-437 
d
 
0-00-0
Mar 22
l
 
2-3F
Feb 8
10
Chesterfield24978934 
l
 
0-3A
Mar 8
l
 
0-2A
Apr 1
11
MK Dons231049534 
w
 
6-3F
Apr 18
Jan 11
l
 
3-0A
12
Bromley248106534 
Apr 1
l
 
5-2A
Mar 22
d
 
1-1A
13
Cheltenham24879-231 
Feb 22
l
 
3-2A
l
 
0-1A
Apr 26
14
Gillingham239311-230 
Mar 4
w
 
0-2F
Feb 22
l
 
4-1A
15
Barrow247710-328 
Feb 1
l
 
2-0A
w
 
1-0F
Mar 1
16
Fleetwood22697027 
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 26
l
 
2-3A
Jan 25
17
Colchester245127027 
Apr 12
d
 
0-00-0
Feb 15
d
 
0-00-0
18
Newport Home237511-1026 
-
-
Apr 5
Feb 11
19
Accrington236710-825 
w
 
3-1F
-
w
 
2-1F
Apr 21
20
Tranmere236710-1525 
May 3
l
 
2-1A
l
 
1-2F
l
 
1-0A
21
Harrogate257414-1625 
Mar 15
l
 
1-0A
d
 
1-1A
Mar 8
22
Swindon255911-1024 
Jan 24
l
 
4-0A
Feb 1
w
 
0-2F
23
Morecambe245514-1720 
Feb 4
w
 
0-1F
l
 
0-1A
Apr 12
24
Carlisle Away244614-1918 
Feb 11
Apr 5
-
-
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Newport 18TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
29
Conceded
32
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
9
D
3
Lost
8
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
Carlisle 24TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
19
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
5
D
2
Lost
13
Goals: Scored
16
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
3
Draw
5
Lost
12
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Newport have drawn with Carlisle in 3 consecutive home league meetings
9
Newport have not lost to Carlisle in 9 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Newport since 2015
Newport
Carlisle
Goals: Scored
14
7
Games: Scored
8 / 9
4 / 9
Clean sheets
5 / 9
1 / 9
NEW
5
D
4
League games at Carlisle since 2014
Carlisle
Newport
Goals: Scored
16
12
Games: Scored
8 / 9
7 / 9
Clean sheets
2 / 9
1 / 9
NEW
3
D
1
CUT
5
Goal Statistics

Goals have been a problem for Carlisle United of late. It has been 10 League Two matches since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.2 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Saturday afternoon against Newport County.

Newport 18th Carlisle 24th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.5
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
25%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Newport will score 1 or more goals
0
30%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 66% probability that Carlisle will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-2
Newport’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-8
Carlisle’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.5
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
1.6
conceded
1.8
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
League Two - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/281417/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Newport
PG (predicted goals)
Carlisle
1.5
1.2
Attack rating
17%
better
NEW
CUT
view stats
Games scored14
14
Failed to score9
10
Scored first6
8
Goals scored30
19
Avg. goals scored1.3
0.8
Avg. shots per game7
8
Avg. shots per goal5
11
Conversion rate for20
9
Avg. XG for1.1
1.2
KickOff rating
+17%
Defence rating
2%
better
NEW
CUT
view stats
Games conceded17
18
Clean sheets6
6
Conceded first13
13
Goals conceded40
38
Avg. goals conceded1.7
1.6
Avg. shots/game conceded11
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
5
Conversion rate against15%
19%
Avg. XG against1.7
1.2
KickOff rating
+2%

Newport v Carlisle League Two lLine ups will show here when available.

Newport League Two squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
21456
N TownsendK HudlinA Driscoll-GlennonA Driscoll-Glennon
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
N Townsend GLK21
2
-
K Evans MID2112
2
-
B Kamwa FWD2133
2
-
C Antwi MID201
2
-
A Driscoll-Glennon DEF195
6
-
C Brennan DEF19
2
1
B Morris MID1932
1
-
M Baker DEF183
2
-
K Hudlin FWD1841
3
-
K Jameson DEF17
3
2
C Baker-Richardson FWD1731
3
-
M Spellman FWD162
1
-
C Evans DEF151
5
-
A Wildig MID154
4
-
S McLoughlin FWD1411
2
-
O. Greaves MID122
-
K. Whitmore MID122
1
-
L Jephcott FWD122
1
-
N Mawene MID9
1
-
J. Miley MID6
1
-
J Clarke DEF5
1
-
J. Thomas DEF4
-
K Rai FWD4
-
J Carney GLK2
-
H. Kargbo FWD2
-
N. Sanca DEF1
-
Carlisle League Two squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
21337
J MellishL ArmstrongC HarperJ Mellish
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Mellish DEF2322
6
1
D Sadi FWD2221
4
-
S Lavelle DEF2121
5
-
H Neal MID211
7
-
C Harper DEF203
4
-
L Armstrong FWD2031
-
B Barclay DEF1711
5
-
H Biggins MID172
2
-
J Vela MID16
5
-
H Lewis GLK14
-
A Hayden DEF141
4
-
D Adu-Adjei FWD1421
2
-
C Wyke FWD132
2
-
J Jones FWD12
6
-
A Davies DEF1111
3
-
T Thomas DEF11
1
-
J Ellis DEF111
2
-
G Breeze GLK10
2
-
C Guy MID9
1
-
B Williams DEF8
-
T Charters MID6
1
-
D McGeouch MID61
1
-
G Kelly FWD6
2
-
J Robinson DEF3
1
-
E Robson MID3
1
-
A. Dudik FWD1
-