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Leyton Orient v Derby County : FA Cup match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 11th Jan, 18:00 BST, Matchroom Stadium, London

Paul Warne pays counterpart Richard Wellens a visit on Saturday evening in the FA Cup, as their Derby County and Leyton Orient charges go head to head at the Matchroom Stadium. We've analysed both clubs' last 20 FA Cup matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the betting market, to generate our match predictions. All the stats, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds from leading bookmakers.


Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

We don't believe there is a clear favourite to win this match, but does appear clear is that the odds suggest it'll have a maximum of 3 goals. Our statistical analysis is inline with them too. L Orient and Derby have taken part in a lot of under 3.5 goal games lately, and key performance statistics point towards more of the same. We're confidently predicting under 3.5 goals on Saturday evening, and the bookmakers have it priced at 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 37% chance of Derby coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
L Orient
36%
2.70
40%
2.70
18%
Draw
27%
3.20
6%
3.25
4%
Derby
37%
2.62
46%
2.62
22%
Draw 1-1
13%
6.00
8%
6.00
Derby 1-0
11%
7.50
15%
7.00
8%
L Orient 1-0
10%
7.50
32%
7.00
13%
Draw 0-0
8%
8.00
6%
7.50
6%
Derby 2-1
8%
10.00
11%
9.00
6%
L Orient 2-1
8%
11.00
27%
9.00
10%
Derby 2-0
7%
12.00
50%
11.00
22%
L Orient 2-0
6%
12.00
48%
11.00
15%
Draw 2-2
5%
15.00
12%
13.00
Derby 3-1
3%
23.00
53%
17.00
13%
L Orient 3-1
3%
23.00
44%
17.00
19%
Derby 3-0
3%
26.00
73%
19.00
27%
L Orient 3-0
3%
29.00
43%
21.00
19%
Derby 3-2
2%
34.00
17%
26.00
13%
L Orient 3-2
2%
34.00
17%
26.00
Over 2.5 Goals
45%
2.20
5%
2.15
5%
Under 2.5 Goals
55%
1.67
3%
1.65
3%
Home 1st Goal
47%
2.10
30%
-
Away 1st Goal
48%
1.91
25%
-
No 1st Goal
5%
8.00
6%
-
BTTS - Yes
50%
1.951.91
BTTS - No
50%
1.801.83
BTTS - Home Win
16%
6.00
40%
5.50
15%
BTTS - Draw
19%
4.50
5%
4.40
4%
BTTS - Away Win
16%
6.00
39%
5.25
17%
Home/draw
63%
1.44
26%
1.48
11%
Away/draw
64%
1.44
22%
1.44
8%
Home/away
73%
1.36
5%
1.33
2%
Over 1.5 Goals
71%
1.361.40
3%
Under 1.5 Goals
29%
3.002.88
1%
Over 3.5 Goals
24%
4.00
7%
3.80
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
76%
1.22
2%
1.22
2%
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
9.00
13%
7.50
7%
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
1.07
1%
1.07
1%
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
19.0015.00
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1.021.01
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1.071.07
1%
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
9.00
6%
7.50
6%
Home DNB
55%
1.83
46%
1.85
20%
Away DNB
56%
1.83
41%
1.83
18%
L Orient win to nil
20%
4.33
38%
-
Derby win to nil
21%
4.33
57%
-
L Orient / L Orient
18%
4.50
44%
4.20
20%
L Orient / Derby
3%
29.00
26%
23.00
10%
L Orient / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
8%
Draw / L Orient
13%
6.00
33%
6.00
14%
Draw / Derby
14%
6.00
33%
5.75
15%
Draw / Draw
18%
4.50
5%
4.40
4%
Derby / L Orient
3%
29.00
29%
23.00
12%
Derby / Derby
18%
4.50
56%
4.20
24%
Derby / Draw
6%
15.0012.00
8%
bet365
Match Predictor Pro
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Win / draw / win form
L Orient
20 games
Goals: Scored
28
Conceded
16
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
9
Draw
6
Lost
5
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HL Orient1 - 0Shrewsbury
AL Orient3 - 2Bristol R
HL Orient2 - 0Cambridge
HL Orient3 - 0Crawley
AL Orient4 - 0Barnsley
HL Orient0 - 0Burton
AL Orient2 - 0Wigan
HL Orient3 - 0Bristol R
HL Orient1 - 1Oldham
HL Orient0 - 2Huddersfield
AL Orient0 - 0Stevenage
HL Orient3 - 0Blackpool
AL Orient2 - 2Boreham Wood
AL Orient0 - 3Wycombe
HL Orient1 - 0Rotherham
AL Orient0 - 1Northampton
AL Orient1 - 2Lincoln
HL Orient0 - 1Exeter
HL Orient0 - 0Wrexham
HL Orient2 - 2Peterborough
Derby
20 games
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
Draw
6
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby0 - 1Bristol C
ADerby2 - 4Sheff Wed
HDerby0 - 1Leeds
HDerby2 - 1West Brom
ADerby1 - 2Luton
HDerby4 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 0Burnley
ADerby0 - 2Leeds
HDerby1 - 2Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 2Swansea
ADerby1 - 1Preston
HDerby1 - 1Plymouth
ADerby2 - 1Coventry
ADerby1 - 2Stoke
HDerby1 - 1Hull
ADerby1 - 1Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby2 - 0QPR
ADerby0 - 2Sunderland
HDerby2 - 3Norwich
bet365
bet365
Goal Statistics
L Orient Derby
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.2
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 65% probability that L Orient will score no more than 1 goal
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 65% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away games
20 home / away games
1.4
average goals scored
0.9
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings past 20 games
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/288959/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
L Orient
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.2
1.2
Attack rating
2%
better
LNO
DER
view stats
Games scored13
15
Failed to score7
5
Scored first11
8
Goals scored28
23
Avg. goals scored1.4
1.2
Avg. shots per game10
8
Avg. shots per goal7
7
Conversion rate for14
15
Avg. XG for1.3
1.2
KickOff rating
+2%
Defence rating
42%
better
LNO
DER
view stats
Games conceded9
17
Clean sheets11
3
Conceded first6
11
Goals conceded16
28
Avg. goals conceded0.8
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded6
7
Avg. shots/goal conceded8
5
Conversion rate against13%
19%
Avg. XG against1
1.2
KickOff rating
+42%

The line-ups for the FA Cup match between L Orient v Derby will show here when available.

L Orient FA Cup squad statistics 2024
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE
Derby FA Cup squad statistics 2024
Overall
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
NO DATA AVAILABLE