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Swansea City v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Liberty Stadium, Swansea

the Liberty Stadium masses welcome Derby County's supporters on Saturday afternoon, as Alan Pardew's Swansea City go head to head with John Coleman's side in the Championship. Championship statistics are the foundation of the predictions you'll find below, with head to head (H2H) records included too. You can view it all, with data visualisations and odds from the UK's biggest bookmakers available for seventeen major betting markets using the tabs.

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Swansea City's next match is v Plymouth at 19:45 on Wednesday 9th April
Derby County's next match is v Burnley at 19:45 on Tuesday 8th April
The last English Championship meeting between Swansea and Derby was on Saturday 5th April 2025
English Championship
April 5th 2025
Swansea 1
0 Derby
 
J. Eom 79'
 
SWA
DER
Shots On
1
2
Shots Off
2
6
Corners
4
3
Possession
63%
37%
Fouls
7
12
Yellow/red cards
2/0
 
SwanseaDerby
 
L. Vigouroux
J. Key
J. Tymon
H. Delcroix (J. Eom 63')
H. Darling
B. Cabango
G. Franco (Ž. Vipotnik 62')
J. Fulton (J. Allen 77')
L. O'Brien
L. Cullen
R. Pereira Martins (C. Christie 90')
J. Widell Zetterström
C. Forsyth
(K. Goudmijn 83') S. Langås
N. Phillips
K. Wilson
M. Clarke
(N. Mendez-Laing 83') E. Adams
(T. Barkhuizen 83') L. Thompson
M. Harness
H. Armstrong
(L. Wheeldon 89') K. Jackson

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

Under 3.5 goals means that there will be no more than 3 goals scored by Swansea and Derby combined during 90 mins. Up to date form statistics and historical head-to-head (H2H) records have led us to this conclusion, and we're suggest there's a 74% chance of it coming in. The best price available at present on under 3.5 goals is 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Swansea are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 49% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.00.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Swansea
49%
11/10
5%
-
Draw
27%
2/1
12%
-
Derby
24%
3/1
7%
-
Swansea 1-0
13%
4/1
29%
-
Draw 1-1
12%
5/1
8%
-
Swansea 2-0
10%
7/1
16%
-
Draw 0-0
9%
9/2
42%
-
Swansea 2-1
9%
10/1
22%
-
Derby 1-0
9%
13/2
25%
-
Derby 2-1
6%
14/1
15%
-
Swansea 3-0
5%
18/1
12%
-
Swansea 3-1
4%
22/1
35%
-
Draw 2-2
4%
22/1
53%
-
Derby 2-0
4%
16/1
11%
-
Swansea 3-2
2%
40/1
41%
-
Derby 3-1
2%
40/1
41%
-
Swansea 4-0
2%
40/1-
Swansea 4-1
2%
50/1
50%
-
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
11/5
60%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
57%
4/11
24%
-
Home 1st Goal
52%
8/11
7%
-
Away 1st Goal
41%
15/8
11%
-
No 1st Goal
6%
9/2
42%
-
BTTS - Yes
47%
6/4
37%
-
BTTS - No
53%
1/2
18%
-
BTTS - Home Win
19%
11/2
50%
-
BTTS - Draw
17%
9/2
22%
-
BTTS - Away Win
10%
11/1
60%
-
Home/draw
76%
2/9
2%
-
Away/draw
51%
7/10
6%
-
Home/away
73%
4/11
5%
-
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
4/6
26%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
6/5
35%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
11/2
73%
-
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
1/9
14%
-
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
14/1
114%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
1/33
6%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
33/1
127%
-
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
1/200
3%
-
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
1/7
8%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
9/2
42%
-
Home DNB
68%
4/9-
Away DNB
43%
13/8-
Swansea win to nil
30%
7/4
19%
-
Derby win to nil
14%
9/2
15%
-
Swansea / Swansea
22%
13/5
11%
-
Swansea / Derby
2%
40/1
21%
-
Swansea / Draw
6%
14/1-
Draw / Swansea
17%
15/4
5%
-
Draw / Derby
11%
13/2
6%
-
Draw / Draw
22%
11/4
25%
-
Derby / Swansea
2%
33/1
48%
-
Derby / Derby
13%
6/1
17%
-
Derby / Draw
5%
16/1
13%
-
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Swansea have played 39 matches so far this season and lay in 16th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 12 games against teams below in the table, having won 4, drawn 4 and lost 4 matches. They have kept 1 clean sheet and have failed to score in 3 fixtures. They have been outscored by their opponents by 42 goals to 40 goals.

Home League Performance

Swansea have played 19 games at home winning 7, drawing 5 and losing 7 games. They have scored 25 goals, kept 7 clean sheets and conceded 21 goals at home.

Derby are in 20th position in the Championship on 41 points having played 39 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

12 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 34 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 17 goals in total and failed to score in 7 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

33 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 18 games, drawn 6 and won 9. Derby have conceded 43 goals, scored 34, failed to score in 13 fixtures and have kept 8 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Swansea
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Burnley40231524384 
l
 
0-2A
l
 
1-0A
Apr 8
d
 
0-00-0
2
Sheff Utd4026772683 
l
 
1-2F
l
 
1-0A
l
 
0-1A
l
 
1-0A
3
Leeds40231345182 
l
 
3-4F
d
 
2-2A
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
4
Sunderland40211272075 
l
 
2-3F
Apr 12
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
5
M'Boro40179141260 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
6
Bristol C40151510860 
d
 
1-1F
w
 
0-1F
w
 
3-0F
l
 
1-0A
7
Coventry4017815459 
l
 
0-2A
w
 
1-2F
w
 
2-0F
w
 
1-2F
8
West Brom40131891257 
d
 
1-1A
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-1F
Apr 21
9
Millwall40141214-254 
l
 
0-1A
Apr 26
l
 
0-1A
d
 
1-1F
10
Watford4015817-553 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
1-0A
l
 
0-2A
l
 
2-1F
11
Norwich40131314652 
w
 
1-0F
l
 
5-1A
l
 
2-3A
d
 
1-1A
12
Blackburn4015718-152 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-1F
l
 
4-2A
13
Sheff Wed40141016-752 
l
 
0-1A
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
1-2F
l
 
4-2A
14
Preston40101812-748 
w
 
3-0F
d
 
0-00-0
w
 
2-0F
d
 
1-1A
15
Swansea Home4013918-1048 
-
-
l
 
1-2A
l
 
1-0A
16
QPR40111316-846 
w
 
3-0F
Apr 21
w
 
2-0F
l
 
4-0A
17
Portsmouth4012919-1545 
d
 
2-2A
l
 
4-0A
w
 
4-0F
Apr 12
18
Oxford Utd40111217-1645 
May 3
w
 
1-2F
d
 
0-00-0
d
 
1-1A
19
Hull40111118-844 
Apr 18
l
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
20
Stoke40101317-1243 
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
3-1F
May 3
l
 
2-1A
21
Derby Away4011821-1041 
w
 
1-0F
w
 
1-2F
-
-
22
Cardiff4091417-2041 
d
 
1-1F
l
 
3-0A
w
 
1-0F
l
 
2-1A
23
Luton4010921-2539 
w
 
2-1A
d
 
1-1A
Apr 18
l
 
2-1F
24
Plymouth4081319-3637 
Apr 9
w
 
1-2F
d
 
1-1F
w
 
2-3F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
Swansea 15TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
22
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
7
Draw
5
Lost
8
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Swansea0 - 2Burnley
Swansea1 - 0M'Boro
Swansea3 - 0Blackburn
Swansea0 - 1Sheff Wed
Swansea0 - 2Coventry
Swansea1 - 2Sheff Utd
Swansea1 - 1West Brom
Swansea2 - 1Luton
Swansea3 - 0QPR
Swansea2 - 3Sunderland
Swansea2 - 2Portsmouth
Swansea3 - 4Leeds
Swansea1 - 0Watford
Swansea0 - 1Millwall
Swansea0 - 0Stoke
Swansea1 - 1Bristol C
Swansea1 - 0Norwich
Swansea1 - 1Cardiff
Swansea3 - 0Preston
Swansea0 - 1Millwall
Goals: Scored
21
Conceded
33
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
6
D
3
Lost
11
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ASwansea2 - 2Leeds
HSwansea0 - 2Burnley
ASwansea0 - 1Watford
HSwansea1 - 0M'Boro
ASwansea0 - 0Preston
HSwansea3 - 0Blackburn
ASwansea1 - 3Stoke
HSwansea0 - 1Sheff Wed
ASwansea1 - 0Bristol C
HSwansea0 - 2Coventry
ASwansea1 - 5Norwich
HSwansea1 - 2Sheff Utd
ASwansea0 - 3Cardiff
HSwansea1 - 1West Brom
ASwansea0 - 4Portsmouth
HSwansea2 - 1Luton
HSwansea3 - 0QPR
ASwansea1 - 2Hull
HSwansea2 - 3Sunderland
ASwansea2 - 1Plymouth
Derby 21ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
18
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
18 / 20
Clean sheets
2 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
W
3
Draw
5
Lost
12
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Plymouth2 - 3Derby
M'Boro1 - 0Derby
QPR4 - 0Derby
Norwich1 - 1Derby
Cardiff2 - 1Derby
Bristol C1 - 0Derby
Sheff Wed4 - 2Derby
Luton2 - 1Derby
Burnley0 - 0Derby
Leeds2 - 0Derby
Preston1 - 1Derby
Coventry1 - 2Derby
Stoke2 - 1Derby
Oxford Utd1 - 1Derby
Millwall1 - 1Derby
Sunderland2 - 0Derby
Sheff Utd1 - 0Derby
Watford2 - 1Derby
Blackburn4 - 2Derby
Cambridge0 - 1Derby
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
25
Games: Scored
10 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
10 / 20
Won
6
D
3
Lost
11
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby2 - 0Preston
ADerby3 - 2Plymouth
HDerby2 - 0Coventry
HDerby2 - 1Blackburn
ADerby0 - 1M'Boro
HDerby0 - 1Millwall
ADerby0 - 4QPR
HDerby0 - 0Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 1Norwich
HDerby0 - 1Sheff Utd
ADerby1 - 2Cardiff
HDerby0 - 1Sunderland
HDerby0 - 2Watford
ADerby0 - 1Bristol C
ADerby2 - 4Sheff Wed
HDerby0 - 1Leeds
HDerby2 - 1West Brom
ADerby1 - 2Luton
HDerby4 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 0Burnley
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Swansea since 2008
Swansea
Derby
Goals: Scored
9
7
Games: Scored
6 / 7
5 / 7
Clean sheets
2 / 7
1 / 7
SWA
3
D
3
DER
1
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Swansea
Swansea2 - 1
Swansea2 - 1
2 - 3Derby
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Swansea1 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
League games at Derby since 2009
Derby
Swansea
Goals: Scored
9
7
Games: Scored
5 / 8
5 / 8
Clean sheets
3 / 8
3 / 8
SWA
2
D
3
DER
3
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
1 - 2Swansea
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 1
0 - 1Swansea
Draw2 - 2Draw
Goal Statistics
Swansea 15th Derby 21st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.5
goals
0.9
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
23%
1
34%
2
25%
3
12%
4+
There is a 77% probability that Swansea will score 1 or more goals
0
39%
1
37%
2
17%
3
4+
There is a 76% probability of Derby scoring 1 goal or less
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-11
Swansea have scored 11% fewer goals at home than predicted
-9
Derby’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.3
average goals scored
0.9
average goals scored
1.1
conceded
1.7
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/280567/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Swansea
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.5
0.9
Attack rating
SWA
DER
4%
better
view stats
Games scored24
26
Failed to score15
13
Scored first17
16
Goals scored40
42
Avg. goals scored1
1.1
Avg. shots per game7
7
Avg. shots per goal7
7
Conversion rate for14
15
Avg. XG for1.3
1.1
KickOff rating
+4%
Defence rating
5%
better
SWA
DER
view stats
Games conceded29
30
Clean sheets10
9
Conceded first19
21
Goals conceded51
51
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded9
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded7
6
Conversion rate against15%
17%
Avg. XG against1.5
1.3
KickOff rating
+5%

Swansea v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Swansea Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
401068
L VigourouxL CullenRonaldB Cabango
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
L Vigouroux GLK40
-
J Key DEF393
3
-
B Cabango DEF3911
8
-
J Fulton DEF261
4
-
H Darling DEF3533
3
1
J Tymon DEF3924
5
-
Ronald MID4016
3
-
H Delcroix  MID9
2
-
G Franco MID3421
6
-
L Cullen FWD37102
8
-
L O'Brien FWD10
1
-
Subs
J McLaughlin GLK
-
C Christie DEF10
1
-
K Naughton DEF20
1
-
S. Parker DEF5
-
J Allen MID1911
1
-
O Cooper MID2211
-
Z Vipotnik FWD366
1
-
J Eom  FWD3121
1
-
F Bianchini FWD323
2
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
385411
J ZetterströmE AdamsN Mendez-LaingM Harness
Line-upAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
J Zetterström GLK38
1
-
N Phillips DEF263
4
-
M Clarke DEF101
1
-
S Langas DEF8
-
K Wilson MID2721
-
E Adams MID385
10
-
H. Armstrong MID91
2
-
L Thompson MID241
5
-
C Forsyth MID3332
4
-
K Jackson FWD4032
5
-
M Harness FWD3542
11
-
Subs
J Vickers GLK2
-
J Rooney DEF
-
E Pieters  DEF
-
R. Keilen DEF
-
K Goudmijn MID3822
5
-
J Hendrick MID
-
L. Wheeldon MID1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD17
2
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD3524
3
-
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