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Middlesbrough v Burnley : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 29th Dec, 20:00 BST, Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

the Riverside Stadium is the setting on Sunday night, as Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough host Scott Parker's Burnley in the Championship. Our predictions for each betting market are based on the past 20 games each side has played (home, away and overall) with extra weighting assigned to top teams. All the statistics and graphics are tailored for the selected market. Head to head (H2H) statistics for this fixture are also given if there is some fixture history. Odds are provided directly from from the UK's biggest bookmakers.

Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 2.5 goals

Concentration will be required as M'Boro and Burnley go head-to-head, with little to choose between the players in terms of who could claim victory. The stats don't give us any conclusive evidence in that regard, but they are pointing strongly towards there being 2 goals or fewer in the game. It's a prediction which is available at best priced odds of 1.73 with the bookies, so we make under 2.5 goals our tip of the day on this one.

If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think M'Boro are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 36% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.25.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
M'Boro 34%	2.25 7%	2.30 10%
Draw 29%	3.40 3%	3.40 3%
Burnley 38%	3.00 9%	3.10 11%
Draw 1-1 13%	6.50	6.00
Burnley 1-0 12%	8.50 6%	8.00 6%
M'Boro 1-0 11%	7.50 7%	7.00 8%
Draw 0-0 10%	9.50	8.00
Burnley 2-1 8%	11.00 8%	10.00 9%
M'Boro 2-1 7%	9.50 6%	8.50 6%
Burnley 2-0 7%	15.00 12%	12.00 8%
M'Boro 2-0 6%	11.00 16%	9.50 12%
Draw 2-2 4%	15.00 12%	13.00
Burnley 3-1 3%	26.00 10%	19.00 17%
Burnley 3-0 3%	34.00 17%	23.00 21%
M'Boro 3-1 3%	19.00 12%	15.00
M'Boro 3-0 2%	21.00 11%	17.00 13%
Burnley 3-2 2%	34.00 17%	26.00 10%
M'Boro 3-2 2%	29.00	23.00
Over 2.5 Goals 39%	2.10	2.05
Under 2.5 Goals 61%	1.73	1.70
Home 1st Goal 46%	1.73 4%	-
Away 1st Goal 47%	2.30 8%	-
No 1st Goal 7%	9.50	-
BTTS - Yes 46%	1.83	1.85 3%
BTTS - No 54%	1.83	1.85 3%
BTTS - Home Win 13%	5.00 5%	4.60 6%
BTTS - Draw 18%	4.75	4.40 4%
BTTS - Away Win 14%	6.50 7%	5.75 12%
Home/draw 62%	1.36 2%	1.36 5%
Away/draw 66%	1.62 5%	1.60 8%
Home/away 71%	1.30 1%	1.30
Over 1.5 Goals 66%	1.36	1.35
Under 1.5 Goals 34%	3.20	3.00
Over 3.5 Goals 19%	4.00	3.60
Under 3.5 Goals 81%	1.25	1.25
Over 4.5 Goals 8%	8.00	7.00
Under 4.5 Goals 92%	1.08	1.08
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	17.00	13.00 13%
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	1.02	1.02
Over 0.5 Goals 90%	1.06	1.06
Under 0.5 Goals 10%	9.50	8.00
Home DNB 54%	1.67 9%	1.62 9%
Away DNB 58%	2.10 12%	2.15 12%
M'Boro win to nil 21%	3.75 10%	-
Burnley win to nil 23%	5.00 9%	-
M'Boro / M'Boro 22%	3.75 7%	3.60 11%
M'Boro / Burnley 3%	29.00 15%	23.00 12%
M'Boro / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00 8%
Draw / M'Boro 15%	5.50 10%	5.25 9%
Draw / Burnley 12%	6.50 13%	6.50 7%
Draw / Draw 17%	5.00	4.60
Burnley / M'Boro 3%	26.00	21.00
Burnley / Burnley 16%	5.00 17%	4.80 13%
Burnley / Draw 6%	15.00	12.00 8%

Win / draw / win Championship table

M'Boro have played 23 matches so far this season and are in 7th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

6 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 4 games, drawn 1 and won 1. M'Boro have conceded 8 goals, scored 4, failed to score in 2 matches and kept 1 clean sheet.

Home league performance

M'Boro have played 12 games at home, winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 19 goals, conceded 14 goals, kept 4 clean sheets and failed to score 3 times in home league games.

Burnley lay in 3rd place on 47 points in the Championship league table having played 23 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 21 games against teams below them in the table, winning 11, drawing 8 and losing 2 games. They have scored 27 goals and kept 12 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Burnley have conceded 9 goals and have failed to score in 7 matches.

Away league performance

Burnley have played 12 away games, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 1.3 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.4 goals per away game.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	M'Boro Burnley
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Leeds	23	14	6	3	28	48	Apr 8	l 3-1A	Jan 27	w 0-1F
2	Sheff Utd	23	15	5	3	19	48	w 1-0F	Feb 12	Apr 21	w 0-2F
3	Burnley Away	23	13	8	2	21	47	Dec 29	d 1-1F	-	-
4	Sunderland	23	12	8	3	16	44	Feb 3	l 1-0A	Jan 17	l 1-0A
5	Blackburn	22	11	5	6	7	38	l 0-1A	Apr 5	d 1-1F	Jan 4
6	Watford	22	11	4	7	3	37	Feb 15	l 2-1F	w 2-1F	Apr 18
7	M'Boro Home	23	10	6	7	10	36	-	-	d 1-1A	Dec 29
8	West Brom	23	8	11	4	9	35	Jan 21	w 0-1F	Mar 11	d 0-00-0
9	Sheff Wed	23	9	6	8	-2	33	d 3-3F	Apr 21	Feb 21	w 0-2F
10	Swansea	23	8	6	9	3	30	w 1-0F	Mar 8	w 1-0F	Mar 15
11	Bristol C	23	7	9	7	-1	30	l 0-2A	Feb 21	Mar 29	w 0-1F
12	Norwich	23	7	8	8	4	29	Apr 26	d 3-3A	Apr 12	w 1-2A
13	Millwall	22	7	7	8	2	28	w 1-0F	Apr 12	May 3	l 1-0A
14	Derby	23	7	6	10	0	27	Mar 1	l 1-0A	d 0-00-0	Apr 9
15	Coventry	23	7	6	10	-2	27	l 0-3A	May 3	w 2-0F	Apr 5
16	Preston	23	5	11	7	-6	26	d 1-1F	Jan 25	d 0-00-0	Feb 15
17	QPR	23	5	10	8	-8	25	Mar 11	w 1-4F	d 0-00-0	Apr 26
18	Luton	23	7	4	12	-14	25	w 5-1F	Mar 15	Mar 8	w 1-4F
19	Stoke	23	5	7	11	-9	22	w 2-0F	Feb 7	Jan 1	w 0-2F
20	Oxford Utd	22	5	6	11	-15	21	Mar 29	w 2-6A	Feb 8	d 0-00-0
21	Portsmouth	21	4	8	9	-11	20	d 2-2A	Jan 18	w 2-1A	Feb 1
22	Hull	23	4	7	12	-11	19	w 3-1F	Jan 1	Feb 12	d 1-1A
23	Cardiff	22	4	6	12	-16	18	Jan 4	w 0-2F	w 5-0F	Mar 1
24	Plymouth	22	4	6	12	-27	18	Apr 18	d 3-3A	w 1-0F	Jan 22

	Promotion
	Promotion Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Burnley have won 4 consecutive away league games

Burnley have not lost in 10 consecutive league games

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

15 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

5 / 20

Won

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
M'Boro	3 - 3	Sheff Wed
M'Boro	1 - 0	Millwall
M'Boro	3 - 1	Hull
M'Boro	0 - 1	Blackburn
M'Boro	5 - 1	Luton
M'Boro	0 - 3	Coventry
M'Boro	1 - 0	Sheff Utd
M'Boro	0 - 2	Bristol C
M'Boro	2 - 0	Stoke
M'Boro	1 - 1	Preston
M'Boro	2 - 2	Portsmouth
M'Boro	1 - 0	Swansea
M'Boro	3 - 1	Watford
M'Boro	3 - 4	Leeds
M'Boro	2 - 0	Swansea
M'Boro	2 - 0	Sheff Wed
M'Boro	0 - 0	Blackburn
M'Boro	3 - 1	Norwich
M'Boro	0 - 2	Plymouth
M'Boro	1 - 2	Bristol C

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

16 / 20

Conceded

15 / 20

Clean sheets

5 / 20

Failed to score

4 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	M'Boro	3 - 3	Sheff Wed
A	M'Boro	3 - 3	Plymouth
H	M'Boro	1 - 0	Millwall
A	M'Boro	1 - 3	Leeds
A	M'Boro	1 - 1	Burnley
H	M'Boro	3 - 1	Hull
H	M'Boro	0 - 1	Blackburn
A	M'Boro	6 - 2	Oxford Utd
H	M'Boro	5 - 1	Luton
A	M'Boro	4 - 1	QPR
H	M'Boro	0 - 3	Coventry
A	M'Boro	3 - 3	Norwich
H	M'Boro	1 - 0	Sheff Utd
H	M'Boro	0 - 2	Bristol C
A	M'Boro	1 - 2	Watford
A	M'Boro	1 - 0	West Brom
H	M'Boro	2 - 0	Stoke
A	M'Boro	0 - 1	Sunderland
H	M'Boro	1 - 1	Preston
A	M'Boro	2 - 0	Cardiff

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Sheff Utd	0 - 2	Burnley
Norwich	1 - 2	Burnley
Stoke	0 - 2	Burnley
Bristol C	0 - 1	Burnley
West Brom	0 - 0	Burnley
Millwall	1 - 0	Burnley
Hull	1 - 1	Burnley
Sheff Wed	0 - 2	Burnley
Oxford Utd	0 - 0	Burnley
Leeds	0 - 1	Burnley
Sunderland	1 - 0	Burnley
Luton	1 - 4	Burnley
Spurs	2 - 1	Burnley
Man Utd	1 - 1	Burnley
Sheff Utd	1 - 4	Burnley
Everton	1 - 0	Burnley
Chelsea	2 - 2	Burnley
West Ham	2 - 2	Burnley
C Palace	3 - 0	Burnley
Liverpool	3 - 1	Burnley

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

7 / 20

Clean sheets

13 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Burnley	2 - 0	Sheff Utd
H	Burnley	2 - 1	Watford
A	Burnley	2 - 1	Norwich
H	Burnley	0 - 0	Derby
H	Burnley	1 - 1	M'Boro
A	Burnley	2 - 0	Stoke
H	Burnley	2 - 0	Coventry
A	Burnley	1 - 0	Bristol C
H	Burnley	1 - 0	Swansea
A	Burnley	0 - 0	West Brom
A	Burnley	0 - 1	Millwall
H	Burnley	0 - 0	QPR
A	Burnley	1 - 1	Hull
A	Burnley	2 - 0	Sheff Wed
H	Burnley	0 - 0	Preston
H	Burnley	1 - 0	Plymouth
A	Burnley	0 - 0	Oxford Utd
H	Burnley	2 - 1	Portsmouth
A	Burnley	1 - 0	Leeds
H	Burnley	1 - 1	Blackburn

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Burnley have not lost to M'Boro in 6 consecutive league meetings

M'Boro

Burnley

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

6 / 8

4 / 8

Clean sheets

4 / 8

2 / 8

MID

BRN

FIXTURE HISTORY AT M'Boro
	1 - 2	Burnley
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
M'Boro	1 - 0
M'Boro	1 - 0
M'Boro	3 - 2
	0 - 2	Burnley
M'Boro	2 - 1
M'Boro	2 - 0

Burnley

M'Boro

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

5 / 9

7 / 9

Clean sheets

2 / 9

4 / 9

MID

BRN

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Burnley
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Burnley	3 - 1
Burnley	1 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
	0 - 1	M'Boro
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 2	M'Boro
Burnley	3 - 1
	0 - 3	M'Boro

Goal Statistics

Burnley's defensive record is very strong, Scott Parker's men having conceded 1 or less in 22 consecutive Championship outings. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.1 for Middlesbrough makes sense in this context.

	M'Boro 7th	Burnley 3rd
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.1 goals	1.2 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 34% 1 37% 2 20% 3 4+ There is a 71% probability that M'Boro will score no more than 1 goal	0 31% 1 36% 2 21% 3 8% 4+ There is a 67% probability that Burnley will score no more than 1 goal

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-2 M'Boro’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions	+8 Burnley’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
	1.7 average goals scored	1.3 average goals scored
	1.2 conceded	1.0 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season

17%

better

MID

BRN

view stats

Games scored	18		16
Failed to score	5		7
Scored first	13		12
Goals scored	41		30
Avg. goals scored	1.8		1.3
Avg. shots per game	11		9
Avg. shots per goal	6		7
Conversion rate for	17		15
Avg. XG for	1.6		1.1
KickOff rating		+17%

MID

BRN

51%

better

view stats

Games conceded	17		9
Clean sheets	6		14
Conceded first	10		6
Goals conceded	31		9
Avg. goals conceded	1.3		0.4
Avg. shots/game conceded	7		7
Avg. shots/goal conceded	5		17
Conversion rate against	19%		6%
Avg. XG against	1		0.8
KickOff rating		+51%

M'Boro v Burnley Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

M'Boro Championship squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
22	9	9	6
F Azaz	E Lath	F Azaz	G Edmundson

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
E Lath FWD	23	9	2	3 -
F Azaz MID	22	8	9	3 -
H Hackney MID	20	3	1	4 1
N Borges DEF	19		2	3 -
D Burgzorg FWD	19	2		1 -
T Conway FWD	19	8		-
L Ayling DEF	18		2	1 -
G Edmundson DEF	18	1		6 -
I Jones FWD	18			1 -
B Doak FWD	18	2	5	5 -
S Dieng GLK	17			-
A Dijksteel DEF	15	1	1	2 -
A Morris MID	15			2 -
M Clarke DEF	14	2		-
D Barlaser MID	14	1	1	-
R McGree MID	14	1	5	2 -
M. Hamilton FWD	13			-
R Berg DEF	11			2 1
J Howson MID	9	1		-
D Fry DEF	6			-
L Engel DEF	4			1 -
M Forss FWD	4			-
A Gilbert FWD	3			-
T Glover GLK	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	24	9	28
E Lath	F Azaz	F Azaz	F Azaz

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
E Lath FWD	9	18	2	12
T Conway FWD	8	15		8
F Azaz MID	8	24	9	28
H Hackney MID	3	15	1	13
D Burgzorg FWD	2	8		7
B Doak FWD	2	11	5	28
M Clarke DEF	2	3		2
J Howson MID	1	2		3
G Edmundson DEF	1	2		2
A Dijksteel DEF	1	1	1	4
D Barlaser MID	1	1	1	14
R McGree MID	1	9	5	18
A Gilbert FWD				1
D Fry DEF				1
A Morris MID		1		6
R Berg DEF				1
M. Hamilton FWD		1		2
S Dieng GLK				1
I Jones FWD		6		3
L Ayling DEF		1	2	12
N Borges DEF		1	2	12

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1463	45	92
H Hackney	L Ayling	N Borges

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
H Hackney MID	1463	36	88
G Edmundson DEF	1128	16	57
L Ayling DEF	1038	45	92
A Morris MID	959	29	64
M Clarke DEF	817	27	64
N Borges DEF	754	38	92
F Azaz MID	659	15	57
D Barlaser MID	618	11	21
R Berg DEF	574	10	35
A Dijksteel DEF	568	34	79
B Doak FWD	485	19	71
S Dieng GLK	464		5
J Howson MID	401	12	20
R McGree MID	374	7	25
D Fry DEF	244	1	8
I Jones FWD	235	18	44
T Conway FWD	226	7	32
D Burgzorg FWD	202	11	50
E Lath FWD	187	18	84
M. Hamilton FWD	160	6	17
L Engel DEF	148	6	16
A Gilbert FWD	39	1	1
T Glover GLK	18
M Forss FWD	12

Burnley Championship squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
23	9	3	5
M Estève	J Brownhill	J Brownhill	J Trafford

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Estève DEF	23			2 -
J Trafford GLK	22			5 -
J Brownhill MID	22	9	3	3 -
J Cullen MID	21		1	5 -
L Koleosho FWD	21	2		2 -
J Anthony FWD	20	3	2	1 -
L Pires DEF	18		2	3 -
C Egan-Riley DEF	18	1		4 -
C Roberts DEF	18	1	2	1 -
J Laurent MID	18		1	1 -
B Humphreys DEF	17		1	2 1
H Mejbri MID	17		1	5 -
J Rodríguez FWD	17	2		1 -
J Sarmiento FWD	16	2		2 -
Z Flemming MID	14	3	1	1 -
A Hountondji FWD	9			-
L Foster FWD	9	1	1	3 -
H Massengo MID	8		1	1 -
J Worrall DEF	4		1	1 -
V Hladky GLK	1			-
S Sambo DEF	1			-
B Hedilazio FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
9	17	3	26
J Brownhill	J Brownhill	J Brownhill	J Anthony

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Brownhill MID	9	17	3	20
Z Flemming MID	3	14	1	9
J Anthony FWD	3	12	2	26
L Koleosho FWD	2	11		24
J Rodríguez FWD	2	3		2
J Sarmiento FWD	2	8		8
C Egan-Riley DEF	1	2		8
C Roberts DEF	1	1	2	9
L Foster FWD	1	3	1	2
J Worrall DEF			1	1
H Massengo MID			1
H Mejbri MID		2	1	10
A Hountondji FWD		1
B Humphreys DEF			1	7
J Laurent MID		3	1	10
L Pires DEF		1	2	17
J Cullen MID		3	1	19

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1559	41	87
M Estève	J Brownhill	L Koleosho

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Estève DEF	1559	25	71
C Egan-Riley DEF	1269	34	72
J Cullen MID	1209	30	79
C Roberts DEF	989	18	58
J Brownhill MID	874	41	81
J Trafford GLK	783	1	12
L Pires DEF	705	37	61
B Humphreys DEF	632	28	68
J Anthony FWD	572	21	61
L Koleosho FWD	476	30	87
J Laurent MID	447	23	67
H Mejbri MID	354	20	72
J Worrall DEF	235	2	16
J Sarmiento FWD	217	19	59
J Rodríguez FWD	144	7	27
L Foster FWD	138	5	31
Z Flemming MID	138	7	39
H Massengo MID	54	3	6
V Hladky GLK	34
A Hountondji FWD	30	1	4
S Sambo DEF	9	1	2
B Hedilazio FWD	9		2

English Championship match betting previews, predictions and odds

Norwich v QPR

Sun 29th Dec, 12:30

Sheff Utd v West Brom

Bristol C v Portsmouth

Oxford Utd v Plymouth

Millwall v Oxford Utd

Sunderland v Sheff Utd

Sunderland v Portsmouth

Sun 5th Jan, 15:00

QPR v Luton

Mon 6th Jan, 20:00

Middlesbrough v Burnley : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

M'Boro have played 23 matches so far this season and are in 7th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

Home league performance

Burnley lay in 3rd place on 47 points in the Championship league table having played 23 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

Away league performance

M'Boro v Burnley Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

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