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Luton Town v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Fri 20th Dec, 20:00 BST, Kenilworth Road, Luton

Rob Edwards welcomes Paul Warne to the Kenilworth Road on Friday night, as their Luton Town and Derby County troops meet in the Championship. We've got bespoke statistics for all of the main betting markets, from from under 0.5 goals to over 5.5, including form and historical head to head (H2H) data. Predictions are produced from these, and the odds come straight from leading bookmakers.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

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In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Luton
45%
--
Draw
27%
--
Derby
28%
--
Draw 1-1
13%
--
Luton 1-0
13%
--
Derby 1-0
9%
--
Draw 0-0
9%
--
Luton 2-1
9%
--
Luton 2-0
9%
--
Derby 2-1
6%
--
Derby 2-0
5%
--
Draw 2-2
4%
--
Luton 3-1
4%
--
Luton 3-0
4%
--
Derby 3-1
2%
--
Luton 3-2
2%
--
Derby 3-0
2%
--
Derby 3-2
2%
--
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
--
Under 2.5 Goals
57%
--
Home 1st Goal
51%
--
Away 1st Goal
43%
--
No 1st Goal
6%
--
BTTS - Yes
48%
--
BTTS - No
52%
--
BTTS - Home Win
18%
--
BTTS - Draw
18%
--
BTTS - Away Win
12%
--
Home/draw
72%
--
Away/draw
55%
--
Home/away
73%
--
Over 1.5 Goals
69%
--
Under 1.5 Goals
31%
--
Over 3.5 Goals
22%
--
Under 3.5 Goals
78%
--
Over 4.5 Goals
10%
--
Under 4.5 Goals
90%
--
Over 5.5 Goals
4%
--
Under 5.5 Goals
96%
--
Over 0.5 Goals
91%
--
Under 0.5 Goals
9%
--
Home DNB
64%
--
Away DNB
47%
--
Luton win to nil
27%
--
Derby win to nil
16%
--
bet365
Win / draw / win Championship table

Luton have played 20 matches so far this season and lay in 15th place in the Championship league table.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 8 games against teams below in the table, having won 3, drawn 2 and lost 3 matches. They have kept 3 clean sheets and have failed to score in 1 fixture. Luton have outscored their opponents by 23 goals to 22 goals.

Home League Performance

Luton have played 11 games at home winning 5, drawing 3 and losing 3 games. They have scored 16 goals, kept 3 clean sheets and conceded 14 goals at home.

Derby are in 17th position in the Championship on 21 points having played 20 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

6 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 17 goals and kept 1 clean sheet. They have scored 9 goals in total and failed to score in 4 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

14 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 8 games, drawn 3 and won 3. Derby have conceded 21 goals, scored 15, failed to score in 4 fixtures and have kept 3 clean sheets.

Won
Draw
Lost
Luton
Derby
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Sheff Utd2013521742 
Feb 15
l
 
2-0A
Feb 1
l
 
1-0A
2
Leeds2012532241 
Apr 5
l
 
3-0A
Dec 29
l
 
2-0A
3
Burnley2010821738 
l
 
1-4A
Mar 8
Apr 9
d
 
0-00-0
4
Sunderland2010731437 
l
 
1-2A
Feb 12
Jan 21
l
 
2-0A
5
Blackburn191045634 
Apr 12
Dec 14
Mar 8
l
 
4-2A
6
West Brom207112932 
d
 
1-1A
May 3
Dec 26
Apr 21
7
M'Boro20947931 
Mar 15
l
 
5-1A
w
 
1-0F
Mar 1
8
Watford19946231 
w
 
3-0F
Feb 23
Jan 18
l
 
2-1F
9
Swansea20767227 
d
 
1-1F
Dec 29
l
 
1-2A
Apr 5
10
Norwich20686526 
Jan 1
l
 
4-2F
l
 
2-3A
Feb 8
11
Bristol C20686026 
Apr 21
Dec 26
w
 
3-0F
Jan 4
12
Sheff Wed20758-626 
w
 
2-1A
Feb 1
l
 
1-2F
Jan 1
13
Millwall19676325 
Jan 25
w
 
0-1F
Feb 22
d
 
1-1F
14
Preston204106-622 
Jan 18
l
 
1-0A
Mar 29
d
 
1-1A
15
Luton Home206410-1222 
-
-
Apr 18
Dec 20
16
Coventry20569-421 
Apr 26
l
 
3-2F
Mar 11
w
 
1-2F
17
Derby Away20569-421 
Dec 20
Apr 18
-
-
18
Stoke20569-521 
w
 
2-1A
Apr 8
May 3
l
 
2-1A
19
QPR20497-621 
l
 
1-2F
Jan 6
w
 
2-0F
Feb 14
20
Oxford Utd19469-1018 
d
 
2-2F
Jan 21
Feb 11
d
 
1-1A
21
Portsmouth18387-917 
Mar 1
d
 
0-00-0
Dec 13
Apr 12
22
Cardiff194510-1317 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 11
w
 
1-0F
Jan 25
23
Plymouth194510-2117 
Feb 8
l
 
3-1A
d
 
1-1F
Mar 15
24
Hull203710-1016 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 29
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
5
Luton have not lost in 5 consecutive home league games
Luton 15TH
20 league games
Home
5
Overall
Goals: Scored
31
Conceded
34
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
7
Draw
5
Lost
8
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
35
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
D
4
Lost
10
Derby 17TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
20
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
13 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
7 / 20
Won
5
Draw
6
Lost
9
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
26
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
5
Draw
6
Lost
9
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Luton have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive home league meetings
League games at Luton since 1992
Luton
Derby
Goals: Scored
11
11
Games: Scored
7 / 9
6 / 9
Clean sheets
3 / 9
2 / 9
LUT
5
D
1
DER
3
League games at Derby since 1993
Derby
Luton
Goals: Scored
12
6
Games: Scored
8 / 9
5 / 9
Clean sheets
4 / 9
1 / 9
D
5
DER
4
Goal Statistics

Goals have been an issue for Derby County of late. It has been 6 Championship games since they last scored more than 1, and a PG of 1.0 suggests they'll have problems ending that run on Friday night against Luton Town.

Luton 15th Derby 17th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.4
goals
1.0
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Luton will score no more than 1 goal
0
36%
1
37%
2
19%
3
4+
There is a 73% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
-3
Luton’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-17
Derby have scored 17% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.6
average goals scored
1.0
average goals scored
1.7
conceded
1.2
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/280345/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Luton
PG (predicted goals)
Derby
1.4
1
Attack rating
2%
better
LUT
DER
view stats
Games scored16
16
Failed to score4
4
Scored first9
9
Goals scored23
22
Avg. goals scored1.2
1.1
Avg. shots per game8
7
Avg. shots per goal7
7
Conversion rate for15
15
Avg. XG for1.2
1.1
KickOff rating
+2%
Defence rating
LUT
DER
8%
better
view stats
Games conceded15
15
Clean sheets5
5
Conceded first10
10
Goals conceded35
26
Avg. goals conceded1.8
1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded10
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
6
Conversion rate against18%
16%
Avg. XG against1.5
1.1
KickOff rating
+8%

Luton v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Luton Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
19545
T KaminskiE AdebayoT KraußJ Clark
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
E Adebayo FWD205
1
-
T Kaminski GLK191
2
1
M McGuinness DEF1812
2
-
J Clark MID1832
5
-
T Chong MID172
4
-
C Morris FWD1751
3
-
T Mengi DEF151
2
-
T Krauß MID1514
-
A Doughty MID134
5
-
J Brown FWD1331
-
D Hashioka DEF11
3
-
S Baptiste MID11
2
-
M Nakamba MID11
1
-
T Holmes DEF101
2
1
A Bell DEF10
1
-
R Burke DEF9
4
-
L Walsh  MID91
1
J Taylor FWD9
-
R Walters DEF8
2
-
C Woodrow FWD8
1
-
Z Nelson MID7
1
-
P Mpanzu MID6
1
-
J Shea  GLK2
-
J Johnson DEF2
-
M Andersen DEF2
-
A Townsend  MID1
-
Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
20435
C NelsonJ YatesN Mendez-LaingE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
C Nelson DEF202
2
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD2023
2
-
K Jackson FWD2022
4
-
E Adams MID192
5
-
K Goudmijn MID192
2
-
J Zetterström GLK18
1
-
E Cashin DEF18
5
-
C Forsyth DEF1711
2
-
J Yates FWD1742
1
-
K Wilson DEF151
-
B Osborn MID141
2
-
M Harness FWD1411
4
-
N Phillips DEF13
1
-
J Collins FWD13
1
-
C Elder DEF121
5
-
L Thompson MID12
2
-
R Nyambe DEF9
1
-
D Brown FWD91
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD81
1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD7
1
-
J Ward MID6
1
-
D Ozoh MID51
-
S Bradley DEF4
1
-
J Vickers GLK2
-
T Chirewa MID2
1
-