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Derby County v Watford : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sat 18th Jan, 15:00 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Tom Cleverley leads his Watford team to the Pride Park Stadium in the Championship on Saturday afternoon, with Paul Warne's Derby County their rivals. Stats power the algorithmic predictions below for seventeen markets, and flipping between them delivers bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and a whole lot more besides. Odds are also provided. Click on the tabs below to explore.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We make over 1.5 goals our top tip on this fixture, meaning that the sides will score 2 goals or more between them during 90 mins. Both Derby and Watford's recent form stats suggest it's likely, while their head-to-head (H2H) record also supports the bet. The bookies make it their favoured prediction in this market too, available at 1.25.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Derby are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 49% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.45.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
49%
7/529/20
Draw
24%
12/512/5
Watford
27%
9/59/5
Draw 1-1
11%
11/25/1
Derby 2-1
10%
17/215/2
Derby 1-0
9%
15/2
6%
7/1
7%
Derby 2-0
8%
11/110/1
Watford 2-1
7%
10/18/1
Watford 1-0
6%
17/2
5%
15/2
6%
Draw 2-2
6%
12/111/1
Derby 3-1
6%
18/114/1
Draw 0-0
5%
10/1
8%
8/1
Derby 3-0
4%
22/118/1
Watford 2-0
4%
14/111/1
Derby 3-2
3%
28/1
12%
20/1
Watford 3-1
3%
20/116/1
Derby 4-1
2%
40/128/1
Watford 3-2
2%
28/120/1
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
10/11
6%
10/11
Under 2.5 Goals
43%
10/11
5%
5/6
Home 1st Goal
52%
4/5-
Away 1st Goal
45%
6/5
5%
-
No 1st Goal
3%
10/1
8%
-
BTTS - Yes
59%
8/11
4%
8/11
BTTS - No
41%
1/1
5%
1/1
BTTS - Home Win
25%
15/4
6%
7/2
BTTS - Draw
18%
7/2
4%
16/5
3%
BTTS - Away Win
15%
9/2
10%
4/1
Home/draw
73%
2/52/5
3%
Away/draw
51%
8/158/15
Home/away
77%
3/103/10
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
2/7
3%
2/7
1%
Under 1.5 Goals
20%
11/4
6%
23/10
Over 3.5 Goals
35%
12/5
6%
21/10
3%
Under 3.5 Goals
65%
1/3
2%
1/3
Over 4.5 Goals
18%
5/1
9%
19/4
4%
Under 4.5 Goals
82%
1/8
2%
1/9
Over 5.5 Goals
8%
12/1
18%
10/1
8%
Under 5.5 Goals
92%
1/25
1%
1/33
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
95%
1/20
1%
1/20
Under 0.5 Goals
5%
10/1
8%
8/1
Home DNB
66%
8/113/4
Away DNB
44%
1/11/1
Derby win to nil
24%
10/3-
Watford win to nil
12%
4/1
9%
-
Derby / Derby
20%
3/129/10
3%
Derby / Watford
3%
28/1
12%
20/1
Derby / Draw
6%
12/111/1
Draw / Derby
14%
5/19/2
Draw / Watford
13%
11/25/1
Draw / Draw
16%
4/1
9%
19/5
Watford / Derby
3%
25/120/1
Watford / Watford
18%
15/4
6%
17/5
2%
Watford / Draw
6%
14/1
15%
11/1
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 26 matches so far this season and are in 18th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

20 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 11 games, drawn 4 and won 5. Derby have conceded 29 goals, scored 22, failed to score in 6 matches and kept 4 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Derby have played 12 games at home, winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 4 fixtures. They have scored 19 goals, conceded 11 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and failed to score 1 time in home league games.

Watford lay in 9th place on 37 points in the Championship league table having played 25 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 16 games against teams below them in the table, winning 6, drawing 4 and losing 6 games. They have scored 24 goals and kept 3 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Watford have conceded 26 goals and have failed to score in 4 matches.

Away league performance

Watford have played 12 away games, winning 2, drawing 2 and losing 8 games. They have scored an average of 1.3 goals per away game and conceded an average 2.2 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
Watford
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Leeds2615832953 
l
 
0-1A
l
 
2-0A
Feb 11
l
 
2-1A
2
Burnley26141022252 
Apr 9
d
 
0-00-0
Apr 18
l
 
2-1A
3
Sheff Utd2616641952 
Feb 1
l
 
1-0A
l
 
1-2A
l
 
1-0A
4
Sunderland2614841750 
Jan 21
l
 
2-0A
w
 
2-1F
Feb 8
5
M'Boro2611871141 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 1
w
 
2-1A
Feb 15
6
West Brom2691341140 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 21
w
 
2-1F
Apr 12
7
Blackburn251168539 
Mar 8
l
 
4-2A
w
 
1-0F
Apr 26
8
Bristol C269107337 
w
 
3-0F
l
 
1-0A
w
 
1-0F
Apr 5
9
Watford Away2511410-137 
Jan 18
l
 
2-1F
-
-
10
Sheff Wed261079-237 
l
 
1-2F
l
 
4-2A
May 3
w
 
2-6F
11
Norwich26998636 
l
 
2-3A
Feb 8
Feb 1
l
 
4-1A
12
Swansea269710034 
l
 
1-2A
Apr 5
Mar 12
l
 
1-0A
13
QPR267118-532 
w
 
2-0F
Feb 14
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
3-1A
14
Millwall25799130 
Feb 22
d
 
1-1F
Mar 8
w
 
2-3F
15
Preston266128-630 
Mar 29
d
 
1-1A
Jan 21
l
 
3-0A
16
Coventry267811-329 
Mar 11
w
 
1-2F
d
 
1-1A
Jan 25
17
Oxford Utd257711-1228 
Feb 11
d
 
1-1A
w
 
1-0F
Mar 15
18
Derby Home267613-427 
-
-
w
 
2-1A
Jan 18
19
Stoke266911-827 
May 3
l
 
2-1A
w
 
3-0F
Mar 1
20
Luton267415-1725 
Apr 18
l
 
2-1F
Feb 23
l
 
3-0A
21
Portsmouth245811-1123 
w
 
4-0F
Apr 12
w
 
2-1A
Apr 21
22
Hull265813-1123 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
Apr 8
d
 
1-1A
23
Cardiff255812-1523 
w
 
1-0F
Jan 25
l
 
1-2A
Jan 14
24
Plymouth254813-2920 
d
 
1-1F
Mar 15
Mar 29
d
 
2-2F
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
3
Derby have lost 3 consecutive league games
Derby 18TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
3
Goals: Scored
33
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
13
D
2
Lost
5
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby0 - 1Leeds
Derby2 - 1West Brom
Derby4 - 0Portsmouth
Derby1 - 2Sheff Wed
Derby1 - 2Swansea
Derby1 - 1Plymouth
Derby1 - 1Hull
Derby2 - 0QPR
Derby2 - 3Norwich
Derby1 - 0Cardiff
Derby3 - 0Bristol C
Derby1 - 0M'Boro
Derby2 - 0Carlisle
Derby3 - 0L Orient
Derby1 - 0Blackpool
Derby1 - 0Bolton
Derby2 - 1Reading
Derby3 - 0Port Vale
Derby1 - 2Charlton
Derby1 - 0Stevenage
Goals: Scored
23
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
15 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
5 / 20
W
4
Draw
6
Lost
10
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ADerby0 - 1Bristol C
ADerby2 - 4Sheff Wed
HDerby0 - 1Leeds
HDerby2 - 1West Brom
ADerby1 - 2Luton
HDerby4 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 0Burnley
ADerby0 - 2Leeds
HDerby1 - 2Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 2Swansea
ADerby1 - 1Preston
HDerby1 - 1Plymouth
ADerby2 - 1Coventry
ADerby1 - 2Stoke
HDerby1 - 1Hull
ADerby1 - 1Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby2 - 0QPR
ADerby0 - 2Sunderland
HDerby2 - 3Norwich
Watford 9TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
39
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
17 / 20
Clean sheets
3 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
W
4
D
4
Lost
12
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
QPR3 - 1Watford
Burnley2 - 1Watford
Hull1 - 1Watford
Plymouth2 - 2Watford
Swansea1 - 0Watford
Sheff Wed2 - 6Watford
Leeds2 - 1Watford
Luton3 - 0Watford
Preston3 - 0Watford
Norwich4 - 1Watford
Sheff Utd1 - 0Watford
Millwall2 - 3Watford
M'Boro3 - 1Watford
Southampton3 - 2Watford
Ipswich0 - 0Watford
West Brom2 - 2Watford
Birmingham0 - 1Watford
Millwall1 - 0Watford
Rotherham0 - 1Watford
Norwich4 - 2Watford
Goals: Scored
26
Conceded
31
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
16 / 20
Clean sheets
4 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
8
D
3
Lost
9
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HWatford1 - 2Sheff Utd
AWatford1 - 3QPR
HWatford1 - 2Cardiff
HWatford2 - 1Portsmouth
AWatford1 - 2Burnley
HWatford2 - 1West Brom
AWatford1 - 1Hull
HWatford0 - 0QPR
HWatford1 - 0Bristol C
AWatford2 - 2Plymouth
HWatford1 - 0Oxford Utd
AWatford0 - 1Swansea
AWatford6 - 2Sheff Wed
HWatford1 - 0Blackburn
AWatford1 - 2Leeds
AWatford0 - 3Luton
HWatford2 - 1M'Boro
AWatford0 - 3Preston
HWatford2 - 1Sunderland
AWatford1 - 4Norwich
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Watford have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive league meetings
League games at Derby since 1993
Derby
Watford
Goals: Scored
34
21
Games: Scored
16 / 17
13 / 17
Clean sheets
4 / 17
1 / 17
DER
8
D
4
WAT
5
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
0 - 1Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby4 - 2
Derby5 - 1
1 - 2Watford
Derby4 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Derby1 - 0
1 - 2Watford
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby3 - 2
Derby3 - 0
Derby2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Watford
1 - 2Watford
League games at Watford since 1992
Watford
Derby
Goals: Scored
28
21
Games: Scored
13 / 18
13 / 18
Clean sheets
5 / 18
5 / 18
DER
5
D
5
WAT
8
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Watford
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 1
1 - 2Derby
2 - 3Derby
Watford2 - 1
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 0
0 - 1Derby
Watford3 - 1
Draw2 - 2Draw
Draw2 - 2Draw
Watford2 - 1
Watford2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Watford2 - 1
3 - 4Derby
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

Derby County's fans will be hoping for goals on Saturday afternoon, not least because Watford have conceded in each of their last 7 Championship matches. A PG of 1.8 for Paul Warne's side suggests that run should continue.

Derby 18th Watford 9th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.8
goals
1.2
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
17%
1
30%
2
27%
3
16%
4+
10%
There is a 83% probability that Derby will score 1 or more goals
0
29%
1
36%
2
22%
3
9%
4+
There is a 65% probability that Watford will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+7
Derby’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
+3
Watford’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.7
average goals scored
1.3
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
2.0
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/280404/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Watford
1.8
1.2
Attack rating
DER
WAT
2%
better
view stats
Games scored20
20
Failed to score6
5
Scored first12
9
Goals scored31
35
Avg. goals scored1.2
1.4
Avg. shots per game8
9
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for16
16
Avg. XG for1.1
1.4
KickOff rating
+2%
Defence rating
4%
better
DER
WAT
view stats
Games conceded20
20
Clean sheets6
5
Conceded first13
15
Goals conceded35
36
Avg. goals conceded1.3
1.4
Avg. shots/game conceded8
10
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
7
Conversion rate against17%
15%
Avg. XG against1.2
1.4
KickOff rating
+4%

Derby v Watford Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
26657
C NelsonJ YatesN Mendez-LaingE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
C Nelson DEF2621
3
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD2625
2
-
K Jackson FWD2632
4
-
K Goudmijn MID2522
3
-
J Zetterström GLK24
1
-
E Adams MID244
7
-
J Yates FWD2362
1
-
C Forsyth DEF2212
2
-
K Wilson DEF2121
-
M Harness FWD2011
5
-
E Cashin DEF191
5
-
N Phillips DEF19
2
-
C Elder DEF181
6
-
B Osborn MID171
2
-
J Collins FWD17
1
-
L Thompson MID15
3
-
D Brown FWD131
-
R Nyambe DEF9
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD91
1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD9
1
-
S Bradley DEF7
1
-
J Ward MID6
1
-
T Chirewa MID5
1
-
D Ozoh MID51
-
J Vickers GLK2
-
Watford Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
25957
M PollockV BayoG ChakvetadzeR Porteous
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
M Pollock DEF253
4
-
G Chakvetadze MID2525
4
-
E Kayembe MID246
3
-
V Bayo FWD249
4
-
Y Larouci DEF232
-
D Bachmann GLK22
1
-
M Sissoko MID221
2
-
R Andrews DEF2132
1
-
K Baah FWD2142
5
1
R Porteous DEF202
7
-
F Carvallo DEF19
7
-
T Ince FWD171
-
F Ebosele DEF1611
7
-
K Sema FWD141
-
R Vata FWD1423
-
J Morris DEF13
1
-
I Louza  MID13
4
-
D Jebbison FWD13
2
-
J Ngakia DEF91
2
-
T Dele-Bashiru MID92
-
A Ogbonna DEF5
-
J Bond GLK4
-
P Dwomoh MID4
-
M Rajovic FWD31
2
-
M. Doumbia FWD3
-
K Keben DEF1
-