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Derby County v Leeds United : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Sun 29th Dec, 17:45 BST, Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Leeds United are away from home on Sunday evening, as manager Daniel Farke takes his side to visit Derby County and Paul Warne at the Pride Park Stadium in the Championship. All of the important statistics for the encounter, including head to heads (H2Hs), predictions and odds from leading bookmakers across 17 markets are included in this in-depth preview. It's all designed to help you make a well informed, intelligent bet.


Want to know who’s consistently beating the odds? Check out the Top Championship Tipsters and see the most profitable experts for this season!

If you’re keen on betting across various leagues and markets, our Live Bets page showcases active accumulator bets and real-time tips.

Best Tip: Under 3.5 goals

There is 76% chance of Derby and Leeds 3 goals or less combined during this Championship match according to our predictive algorithm and, without a strong favourite in the WDW market, we think that's where the smart money should go. Our calculations are made based on recent form, historical head-to-head (H2H) statistics and the view of the betting market, and you can get it at top odds of 1.33.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
An away win looks like the most likely outcome in the win/draw/win market, with our predictive algorithm suggesting there’s a 41% chance of Leeds coming away with a win.

Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Derby
32%
4.75
14%
5.50
15%
Draw
26%
4.20
7%
4.00
Leeds
41%
1.60
7%
1.60
5%
Draw 1-1
13%
8.00
6%
7.00
Leeds 1-0
11%
6.005.75
Derby 1-0
9%
12.00
8%
11.00
15%
Leeds 2-1
9%
8.507.50
Draw 0-0
8%
10.00
9%
8.50
Derby 2-1
7%
15.00
12%
15.00
12%
Leeds 2-0
7%
7.00
8%
6.50
Derby 2-0
5%
26.00
10%
21.00
19%
Draw 2-2
5%
21.0015.00
Leeds 3-1
4%
13.0012.00
9%
Leeds 3-0
3%
11.00
10%
10.00
5%
Derby 3-1
3%
41.0034.00
17%
Leeds 3-2
2%
29.0023.00
10%
Derby 3-0
2%
51.00
24%
46.00
10%
Derby 3-2
2%
41.00
20%
34.00
17%
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
2.00
5%
1.95
2%
Under 2.5 Goals
53%
1.80
6%
1.75
4%
Home 1st Goal
46%
3.25
7%
-
Away 1st Goal
49%
1.40
3%
-
No 1st Goal
5%
10.00
9%
-
BTTS - Yes
52%
2.00
5%
2.05
BTTS - No
48%
1.73
4%
1.70
2%
BTTS - Home Win
15%
10.00
9%
10.00
9%
BTTS - Draw
19%
6.00
8%
5.25
5%
BTTS - Away Win
19%
4.00
11%
3.70
6%
Home/draw
59%
2.30
8%
2.30
6%
Away/draw
68%
1.18
4%
1.14
3%
Home/away
74%
1.22
3%
1.25
Over 1.5 Goals
73%
1.33
2%
1.33
2%
Under 1.5 Goals
27%
3.40
3%
3.10
6%
Over 3.5 Goals
26%
3.75
10%
3.40
6%
Under 3.5 Goals
74%
1.29
3%
1.29
3%
Over 4.5 Goals
12%
7.00
8%
6.50
8%
Under 4.5 Goals
88%
1.10
1%
1.09
2%
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
15.00
15%
13.00
8%
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1.03
1%
1.02
1%
Over 0.5 Goals
92%
1.06
1%
1.06
Under 0.5 Goals
8%
10.00
9%
8.50
Home DNB
51%
3.75
13%
4.00
17%
Away DNB
60%
1.25
4%
1.20
4%
Derby win to nil
17%
8.00
11%
-
Leeds win to nil
23%
2.50
11%
-
Derby / Derby
9%
9.50
14%
8.50
15%
Derby / Leeds
4%
23.0019.00
Derby / Draw
5%
17.00
11%
15.00
Draw / Derby
8%
11.00
8%
10.00
9%
Draw / Leeds
19%
4.33
8%
4.00
Draw / Draw
15%
5.50
8%
5.25
Leeds / Derby
2%
41.0034.00
Leeds / Leeds
33%
2.50
9%
2.40
4%
Leeds / Draw
5%
15.0015.00
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Win / draw / win Championship table

Derby have played 23 matches so far this season and are in 14th position in the league.

Performance against teams above them in the league

13 of those games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 8 games, drawn 2 and won 3. Derby have conceded 20 goals, scored 14, failed to score in 4 matches and kept 3 clean sheets.

Home league performance

Derby have played 11 games at home, winning 6, drawing 2 and losing 3 fixtures. They have scored 19 goals, conceded 10 goals, kept 5 clean sheets and scored in every home league game.

Leeds lay in 1st place on 48 points in the Championship league table having played 23 matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 23 games against teams below them in the table, winning 14, drawing 6 and losing 3 games. They have scored 43 goals and kept 13 clean sheets against lower placed opposition. Leeds have conceded 15 goals and have failed to score in 5 matches.

Away league performance

Leeds have played 11 away games, winning 4, drawing 5 and losing 2 games. They have scored an average of 1.3 goals per away game and conceded an average 0.8 goals per away game.

Won
Draw
Lost
Derby
Leeds
Results by League Table
TEAM PLD W D L GD PTS HOME AWAY HOME AWAY
1
Leeds Away2314632848 
Dec 29
l
 
2-0A
-
-
2
Sheff Utd2315531948 
Feb 1
l
 
1-0A
w
 
2-0F
Feb 24
3
Burnley2313822147 
Apr 9
d
 
0-00-0
l
 
0-1A
Jan 27
4
Sunderland2312831644 
Jan 21
l
 
2-0A
Feb 17
d
 
2-2A
5
Blackburn221156738 
Mar 8
l
 
4-2A
Jan 1
l
 
1-0A
6
Watford221147337 
Jan 18
l
 
2-1F
w
 
2-1F
Feb 11
7
M'Boro2310671036 
w
 
1-0F
Mar 1
w
 
3-1F
Apr 8
8
West Brom238114935 
w
 
2-1F
Apr 21
Mar 1
d
 
0-00-0
9
Sheff Wed23968-233 
l
 
1-2F
Jan 1
Jan 19
w
 
0-2F
10
Swansea23869330 
l
 
1-2A
Apr 5
Mar 29
w
 
3-4A
11
Bristol C23797-130 
w
 
3-0F
Jan 4
Apr 26
d
 
0-00-0
12
Norwich23788429 
l
 
2-3A
Feb 8
Jan 22
d
 
1-1A
13
Millwall22778228 
Feb 22
d
 
1-1F
Mar 12
l
 
1-0A
14
Derby Home237610027 
-
-
w
 
2-0F
Dec 29
15
Coventry237610-227 
Mar 11
w
 
1-2F
w
 
3-0F
Feb 8
16
Preston235117-626 
Mar 29
d
 
1-1A
Apr 12
d
 
1-1A
17
QPR235108-825 
w
 
2-0F
Feb 14
w
 
2-0F
Mar 15
18
Luton237412-1425 
Apr 18
l
 
2-1F
w
 
3-0F
Apr 5
19
Stoke235711-922 
May 3
l
 
2-1A
Apr 21
w
 
0-2F
20
Oxford Utd225611-1521 
Feb 11
d
 
1-1A
w
 
4-0F
Apr 18
21
Portsmouth21489-1120 
w
 
4-0F
Apr 12
d
 
3-3F
Mar 8
22
Hull234712-1119 
d
 
1-1A
Apr 26
w
 
2-0F
Jan 4
23
Cardiff224612-1618 
w
 
1-0F
Jan 25
Feb 1
w
 
0-2F
24
Plymouth224612-2718 
d
 
1-1F
Mar 15
w
 
3-0F
May 3
Promotion
Promotion Play Off
Relegation
Win / draw / win form
5
Leeds have not lost in 5 consecutive league games
Derby 14TH
20 league games
Home
Overall
Goals: Scored
34
Conceded
14
Games: Scored
20 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
0 / 20
Won
13
D
3
L
4
HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Derby2 - 1West Brom
Derby4 - 0Portsmouth
Derby1 - 2Sheff Wed
Derby1 - 2Swansea
Derby1 - 1Plymouth
Derby1 - 1Hull
Derby2 - 0QPR
Derby2 - 3Norwich
Derby1 - 0Cardiff
Derby3 - 0Bristol C
Derby1 - 0M'Boro
Derby2 - 0Carlisle
Derby3 - 0L Orient
Derby1 - 0Blackpool
Derby1 - 0Bolton
Derby2 - 1Reading
Derby3 - 0Port Vale
Derby1 - 2Charlton
Derby1 - 0Stevenage
Derby1 - 1Shrewsbury
Goals: Scored
25
Conceded
23
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
15 / 20
Clean sheets
5 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
6
Draw
6
Lost
8
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
HDerby2 - 1West Brom
ADerby1 - 2Luton
HDerby4 - 0Portsmouth
ADerby0 - 0Burnley
ADerby0 - 2Leeds
HDerby1 - 2Sheff Wed
HDerby1 - 2Swansea
ADerby1 - 1Preston
HDerby1 - 1Plymouth
ADerby2 - 1Coventry
ADerby1 - 2Stoke
HDerby1 - 1Hull
ADerby1 - 1Oxford Utd
ADerby1 - 1Millwall
HDerby2 - 0QPR
ADerby0 - 2Sunderland
HDerby2 - 3Norwich
ADerby0 - 1Sheff Utd
HDerby1 - 0Cardiff
HDerby3 - 0Bristol C
Leeds 1ST
20 league games
Away
Overall
5
Goals: Scored
30
Conceded
21
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
8
Draw
8
L
4
AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Stoke0 - 2Leeds
Preston1 - 1Leeds
Blackburn1 - 0Leeds
Swansea3 - 4Leeds
Millwall1 - 0Leeds
Bristol C0 - 0Leeds
Sunderland2 - 2Leeds
Norwich1 - 1Leeds
Cardiff0 - 2Leeds
Sheff Wed0 - 2Leeds
West Brom0 - 0Leeds
Norwich0 - 0Leeds
QPR4 - 0Leeds
M'Boro3 - 4Leeds
Coventry2 - 1Leeds
Watford2 - 2Leeds
Sheff Wed0 - 2Leeds
Huddersfield1 - 1Leeds
Plymouth0 - 2Leeds
Swansea0 - 4Leeds
Goals: Scored
38
Conceded
12
Games: Scored
16 / 20
Conceded
9 / 20
Clean sheets
11 / 20
Failed to score
4 / 20
Won
13
D
4
L
3
OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
ALeeds2 - 0Stoke
HLeeds4 - 0Oxford Utd
ALeeds1 - 1Preston
HLeeds3 - 1M'Boro
HLeeds2 - 0Derby
ALeeds0 - 1Blackburn
HLeeds3 - 0Luton
ALeeds4 - 3Swansea
HLeeds2 - 0QPR
ALeeds0 - 1Millwall
HLeeds3 - 0Plymouth
ALeeds0 - 0Bristol C
HLeeds2 - 1Watford
HLeeds2 - 0Sheff Utd
ALeeds2 - 2Sunderland
ALeeds1 - 1Norwich
HLeeds3 - 0Coventry
ALeeds2 - 0Cardiff
HLeeds0 - 1Burnley
HLeeds2 - 0Hull
bet365
bet365
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
3
Leeds have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive away league meetings
League games at Derby since 1996
Derby
Leeds
Goals: Scored
27
28
Games: Scored
15 / 20
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
5 / 20
DER
8
D
5
LEE
7
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
1 - 3Leeds
0 - 1Leeds
1 - 4Leeds
Draw2 - 2Draw
Derby1 - 0
1 - 2Leeds
Derby2 - 0
Derby3 - 1
Derby3 - 1
Derby1 - 0
Derby2 - 1
Derby2 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Derby2 - 0
0 - 1Leeds
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Leeds
Draw2 - 2Draw
0 - 5Leeds
Draw3 - 3Draw
League games at Leeds since 1997
Leeds
Derby
Goals: Scored
31
22
Games: Scored
16 / 21
12 / 21
Clean sheets
9 / 21
5 / 21
DER
6
D
6
LEE
9
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Leeds
Leeds2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
2 - 4Derby
Leeds2 - 0
1 - 2Derby
Leeds1 - 0
Draw2 - 2Draw
Leeds2 - 0
Draw1 - 1Draw
1 - 2Derby
0 - 2Derby
1 - 2Derby
0 - 1Derby
Leeds3 - 1
Leeds1 - 0
Leeds3 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
Draw0 - 0Draw
Leeds4 - 1
Leeds4 - 3
Draw0 - 0Draw
Goal Statistics

Leeds United's defensive record is very strong, D. Farke's men having conceded 1 or less in 6 consecutive Championship matches. An underwhelming PG rating of 1.2 for Derby County makes sense in this context.

Derby 14th Leeds 1st
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.2
goals
1.4
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4+
There is a 67% probability that Derby will score no more than 1 goal
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4+
There is a 60% probability that Leeds will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+8
Derby’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-3
Leeds’s goalscoring when away has been inline with predictions
1.7
average goals scored
1.5
average goals scored
0.7
conceded
1.1
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/280368/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Derby
PG (predicted goals)
Leeds
1.2
1.4
Attack rating
DER
LEE
7%
better
view stats
Games scored19
18
Failed to score4
5
Scored first12
14
Goals scored29
43
Avg. goals scored1.3
1.9
Avg. shots per game8
11
Avg. shots per goal6
6
Conversion rate for16
16
Avg. XG for1.1
1.9
KickOff rating
+7%
Defence rating
DER
LEE
36%
better
view stats
Games conceded17
10
Clean sheets6
13
Conceded first10
7
Goals conceded29
15
Avg. goals conceded1.3
0.7
Avg. shots/game conceded8
5
Avg. shots/goal conceded6
8
Conversion rate against16%
13%
Avg. XG against1.1
0.7
KickOff rating
+36%

Derby v Leeds Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
23546
C NelsonJ YatesN Mendez-LaingE Adams
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
C Nelson DEF232
3
-
N Mendez-Laing FWD2324
2
-
K Jackson FWD2332
4
-
E Adams MID223
6
-
K Goudmijn MID2222
2
-
J Zetterström GLK21
1
-
C Forsyth DEF2012
2
-
J Yates FWD2052
1
-
E Cashin DEF191
5
-
K Wilson DEF1821
-
M Harness FWD1711
4
-
N Phillips DEF16
2
-
B Osborn MID161
2
-
C Elder DEF151
6
-
J Collins FWD15
1
-
L Thompson MID13
2
-
D Brown FWD101
-
R Nyambe DEF9
1
-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD81
1
-
T Barkhuizen FWD7
1
-
S Bradley DEF6
1
-
J Ward MID6
1
-
D Ozoh MID51
-
T Chirewa MID3
1
-
J Vickers GLK2
-
Leeds Championship squad statistics 2024/2025
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
23956
I MeslierJ PiroeW GnontoJ Firpo
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
I Meslier GLK23
-
J Rodon DEF231
4
-
B Aaronson MID2362
-
J Rothwell MID232
1
-
W Gnonto FWD2345
4
-
M Joseph FWD2323
-
J Piroe FWD2394
-
P Struijk DEF222
1
-
J Bogle  DEF2131
5
-
A Tanaka MID201
2
-
S Byram DEF1811
2
-
D James FWD1753
3
-
M Solomon FWD1633
-
J Firpo DEF1513
6
-
L Ramazani FWD1431
2
-
E Ampadu MID11
2
-
I Gruev MID8
2
-
P Bamford FWD8
-
I Schmidt DEF7
-
M Wöber DEF41
1
-
J Gelhardt FWD2
-