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Burnley v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Tue 10th Dec, 19:45 BST, Turf Moor, Burnley

Derby County are away from home on Tuesday evening, as manager Paul Warne takes his men to visit Burnley and Scott Parker at the Turf Moor in the Championship. Analysing both sides' last 20 Championship matches, as well as baseline data within the competition and the betting market, to generate our percentage predictions. All the stats, including head to heads (H2H), are shown below, alongside odds.

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Checkout the hundreds of tips picked but our top win/draw/win tipsters

Predictions	Bet365	Coral
Burnley 52%	-	-
Draw 27%	-	-
Derby 21%	-	-
Burnley 1-0 15%	-	-
Draw 1-1 12%	-	-
Burnley 2-0 11%	-	-
Draw 0-0 10%	-	-
Burnley 2-1 9%	-	-
Derby 1-0 8%	-	-
Burnley 3-0 5%	-	-
Derby 2-1 5%	-	-
Burnley 3-1 4%	-	-
Draw 2-2 4%	-	-
Derby 2-0 3%	-	-
Burnley 4-0 2%	-	-
Burnley 3-2 2%	-	-
Burnley 4-1 2%	-	-
Derby 3-1 1%	-	-
Over 2.5 Goals 40%	-	-
Under 2.5 Goals 60%	-	-
Home 1st Goal 54%	-	-
Away 1st Goal 39%	-	-
No 1st Goal 7%	-	-
BTTS - Yes 43%	-	-
BTTS - No 57%	-	-
BTTS - Home Win 18%	-	-
BTTS - Draw 16%	-	-
BTTS - Away Win 8%	-	-
Home/draw 79%	-	-
Away/draw 48%	-	-
Home/away 73%	-	-
Over 1.5 Goals 66%	-	-
Under 1.5 Goals 34%	-	-
Over 3.5 Goals 20%	-	-
Under 3.5 Goals 80%	-	-
Over 4.5 Goals 8%	-	-
Under 4.5 Goals 92%	-	-
Over 5.5 Goals 3%	-	-
Under 5.5 Goals 97%	-	-
Over 0.5 Goals 90%	-	-
Under 0.5 Goals 10%	-	-
Home DNB 71%	-	-
Away DNB 40%	-	-
Burnley win to nil 34%	-	-
Derby win to nil 13%	-	-

Win / draw / win Championship table

Burnley have played 17 matches so far this season and lay in 2nd place in the Championship league table. Burnley are unbeaten at home after 8 games and have kept 6 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

They have played 17 games against teams below in the table, having won 9, drawn 6 and lost 2 matches. They have kept 11 clean sheets and have failed to score in 6 fixtures. Burnley have outscored their opponents by 21 goals to 20 goals.

Home League Performance

Burnley have played 8 games at home winning 5, drawing 3 and losing 0 games. They have scored 12 goals, kept 6 clean sheets and conceded 2 goals at home.

Derby are in 14th position in the Championship on 20 points having played 16 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

5 of those games have been losing matches. They have conceded 15 goals and kept no clean sheets. They have scored 9 goals in total and failed to score in 2 fixtures.

Performance against teams above them in the league

9 games have come against teams above them in the table. They have lost 6 games, drawn 1 and won 2. Derby have conceded 15 goals, scored 11, failed to score in 2 fixtures and have kept 2 clean sheets.

BTTS yes BTTS no BTTS yes BTTS no Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Won Draw Lost Over 0.5 Under 0.5 Over 1.5 Under 1.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 Under 5.5 For 0-0 Against Won Draw Lost	Burnley Derby
Results by League Table

	TEAM	PLD	W	D	L	GD	PTS	HOME	AWAY	HOME	AWAY
1	Sheff Utd	17	11	4	2	15	35	Apr 21	Dec 26	Feb 1	l 1-0A
2	Burnley	17	9	6	2	15	33	-	-	Apr 9	Dec 10
3	Sunderland	17	9	6	2	14	33	Jan 17	l 1-0A	Jan 21	l 2-0A
4	Leeds	16	9	5	2	16	32	Jan 27	w 0-1F	Dec 29	Dec 7
5	Watford	17	9	2	6	2	29	Dec 21	Apr 18	Jan 18	l 2-1F
6	M'Boro	16	8	3	5	10	27	Dec 6	Dec 29	w 1-0F	Mar 1
7	West Brom	17	6	9	2	7	27	Mar 11	d 0-00-0	Dec 26	Apr 21
8	Millwall	16	6	6	4	5	24	May 3	l 1-0A	Feb 22	d 1-1F
9	Norwich	17	5	7	5	6	22	Apr 12	Dec 15	l 2-3A	Feb 8
10	Blackburn	15	6	4	5	2	22	d 1-1F	Jan 4	Mar 8	l 4-2A
11	Bristol C	17	5	7	5	-1	22	Mar 29	w 0-1F	w 3-0F	Jan 4
12	Sheff Wed	17	6	4	7	-6	22	Feb 21	w 0-2F	Dec 1	Jan 1
13	Stoke	17	5	6	6	-1	21	Jan 1	Nov 30	May 3	l 2-1A
14	Derby	16	5	5	6	0	20	Dec 10	Apr 9	-	-
15	Swansea	16	5	4	7	0	19	w 1-0F	Mar 15	Nov 27	Apr 5
16	Luton	16	5	3	8	-8	18	Mar 8	w 1-4F	Apr 18	Dec 20
17	Coventry	17	4	5	8	-3	17	w 2-0F	Apr 5	Mar 11	w 1-2F
18	Oxford Utd	17	4	5	8	-8	17	Feb 8	d 0-00-0	Feb 11	d 1-1A
19	Preston	17	3	8	6	-8	17	d 0-00-0	Feb 15	Mar 29	d 1-1A
20	Plymouth	17	4	5	8	-16	17	w 1-0F	Jan 22	d 1-1F	Mar 15
21	Cardiff	16	4	4	8	-9	16	w 5-0F	Mar 1	w 1-0F	Jan 25
22	Hull	17	3	6	8	-7	15	Feb 12	d 1-1A	d 1-1A	Apr 26
23	Portsmouth	15	2	6	7	-12	12	w 2-1A	Feb 1	Dec 13	Apr 12
24	QPR	16	1	8	7	-13	11	d 0-00-0	Apr 26	w 2-0F	Feb 14

	Promotion
	Promotion Play Off
	Relegation

Win / draw / win form

Home

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

13 / 20

Clean sheets

7 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

HOME FORM Win / Draw / Win
Burnley	2 - 0	Coventry
Burnley	1 - 0	Swansea
Burnley	0 - 0	QPR
Burnley	0 - 0	Preston
Burnley	1 - 0	Plymouth
Burnley	2 - 1	Portsmouth
Burnley	1 - 1	Blackburn
Burnley	5 - 0	Cardiff
Burnley	1 - 2	Nottm Forest
Burnley	1 - 4	Newcastle
Burnley	1 - 1	Brighton
Burnley	1 - 1	Wolves
Burnley	2 - 1	Brentford
Burnley	0 - 2	Bournemouth
Burnley	0 - 5	Arsenal
Burnley	2 - 2	Fulham
Burnley	1 - 1	Luton
Burnley	0 - 2	Liverpool
Burnley	0 - 2	Everton
Burnley	5 - 0	Sheff Utd

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

9 / 20

Clean sheets

11 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
H	Burnley	2 - 0	Coventry
A	Burnley	1 - 0	Bristol C
H	Burnley	1 - 0	Swansea
A	Burnley	0 - 0	West Brom
A	Burnley	0 - 1	Millwall
H	Burnley	0 - 0	QPR
A	Burnley	1 - 1	Hull
A	Burnley	2 - 0	Sheff Wed
H	Burnley	0 - 0	Preston
H	Burnley	1 - 0	Plymouth
A	Burnley	0 - 0	Oxford Utd
H	Burnley	2 - 1	Portsmouth
A	Burnley	1 - 0	Leeds
H	Burnley	1 - 1	Blackburn
A	Burnley	0 - 1	Sunderland
H	Burnley	5 - 0	Cardiff
A	Burnley	4 - 1	Luton
H	Burnley	1 - 2	Nottm Forest
A	Burnley	1 - 2	Spurs
H	Burnley	1 - 4	Newcastle

Away

Overall

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

14 / 20

Conceded

14 / 20

Clean sheets

6 / 20

Failed to score

6 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

AWAY FORM Win / Draw / Win
Preston	1 - 1	Derby
Coventry	1 - 2	Derby
Stoke	2 - 1	Derby
Oxford Utd	1 - 1	Derby
Millwall	1 - 1	Derby
Sunderland	2 - 0	Derby
Sheff Utd	1 - 0	Derby
Watford	2 - 1	Derby
Blackburn	4 - 2	Derby
Cambridge	0 - 1	Derby
Wycombe	0 - 0	Derby
Portsmouth	2 - 2	Derby
Northampton	1 - 0	Derby
Bristol R	0 - 3	Derby
Barnsley	2 - 1	Derby
Exeter	0 - 3	Derby
Charlton	0 - 1	Derby
Reading	1 - 0	Derby
Lincoln	0 - 0	Derby
Fleetwood	1 - 3	Derby

Goals: Scored

Conceded

Games: Scored

17 / 20

Conceded

12 / 20

Clean sheets

8 / 20

Failed to score

3 / 20

Won

Draw

Lost

OVERALL FORM Win / Draw / Win
A	Derby	1 - 1	Preston
H	Derby	1 - 1	Plymouth
A	Derby	2 - 1	Coventry
A	Derby	1 - 2	Stoke
H	Derby	1 - 1	Hull
A	Derby	1 - 1	Oxford Utd
A	Derby	1 - 1	Millwall
H	Derby	2 - 0	QPR
A	Derby	0 - 2	Sunderland
H	Derby	2 - 3	Norwich
A	Derby	0 - 1	Sheff Utd
H	Derby	1 - 0	Cardiff
H	Derby	3 - 0	Bristol C
A	Derby	1 - 2	Watford
H	Derby	1 - 0	M'Boro
A	Derby	2 - 4	Blackburn
H	Derby	2 - 0	Carlisle
A	Derby	1 - 0	Cambridge
H	Derby	3 - 0	L Orient
A	Derby	0 - 0	Wycombe

Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)

Burnley have beaten Derby in 3 consecutive home league meetings

Burnley have not lost to Derby in 12 consecutive league meetings

Burnley

Derby

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

9 / 12

5 / 12

Clean sheets

7 / 12

3 / 12

BRN

DER

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Burnley
Burnley	4 - 1
Burnley	2 - 0
Burnley	2 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Burnley	2 - 1
Burnley	3 - 0
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
Draw	2 - 2	Draw
	0 - 2	Derby
Burnley	1 - 0
Burnley	2 - 0
Burnley	3 - 1

Derby

Burnley

Goals: Scored

Games: Scored

10 / 12

7 / 12

Clean sheets

5 / 12

2 / 12

BRN

DER

FIXTURE HISTORY AT Derby
Draw	0 - 0	Draw
	0 - 3	Burnley
	1 - 2	Burnley
	1 - 2	Burnley
	2 - 4	Burnley
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Derby	1 - 0
Derby	3 - 0
Draw	1 - 1	Draw
Derby	2 - 0
	1 - 2	Burnley
Derby	4 - 0

Goal Statistics

Burnley's fans will be hoping for goals on Tuesday evening, not least because Derby County have conceded in each of their last 7 Championship matches. A PG of 1.5 for Scott Parker's side suggests that run should continue.

With a PG of just 0.8, Derby County look set to find it difficult here. Add in the fact that Burnley haven't conceded a goal in 3 consecutive Championship matches, and it could be a long evening for Paul Warne's men.

	Burnley 2nd	Derby 14th
	Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction	1.5 goals	0.8 goals
	Scoring probability
Scoring probability	0 23% 1 34% 2 25% 3 12% 4+ There is a 77% probability that Burnley will score 1 or more goals	0 44% 1 36% 2 15% 3 4+ There is a 80% probability of Derby scoring 1 goal or less

	20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games	-16 Burnley have scored 16% fewer goals at home than predicted	-12 Derby have scored 12% fewer goals when away than predicted
	1.3 average goals scored	1.2 average goals scored
	1.3 conceded	1.1 conceded

Attack defence ratings
Championship - 2024/2025 season

BRN

DER

13%

better

view stats

Games scored	11		14
Failed to score	6		2
Scored first	9		8
Goals scored	21		20
Avg. goals scored	1.2		1.3
Avg. shots per game	9		8
Avg. shots per goal	7		6
Conversion rate for	14		17
Avg. XG for	1.1		0.9
KickOff rating		+13%

54%

better

BRN

DER

view stats

Games conceded	6		12
Clean sheets	11		4
Conceded first	4		8
Goals conceded	6		20
Avg. goals conceded	0.4		1.3
Avg. shots/game conceded	7		8
Avg. shots/goal conceded	19		7
Conversion rate against	5%		15%
Avg. XG against	0.8		1.1
KickOff rating		+54%

Burnley v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

Burnley Championship squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
17	5	2	4
M Estève	J Brownhill	L Pires	J Cullen

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
M Estève DEF	17			2 -
J Trafford GLK	16			2 -
J Brownhill MID	16	5	1	2 -
L Koleosho FWD	16	2		2 -
L Pires DEF	15		2	3 -
J Cullen MID	15			4 -
C Egan-Riley DEF	14	1		3 -
J Anthony FWD	14	2	2	1 -
C Roberts DEF	13		2	1 -
H Mejbri MID	12			4 -
J Laurent MID	12			-
J Sarmiento FWD	12	2		2 -
J Rodríguez FWD	12	1		1 -
B Humphreys DEF	11			2 1
Z Flemming MID	8	1	1	1 -
H Massengo MID	8		1	1 -
L Foster FWD	8	1	1	3 -
A Hountondji FWD	8			-
J Worrall DEF	3		1	1 -
V Hladky GLK	1			-
S Sambo DEF	1			-
B Hedilazio FWD	1			-

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
5	11	2	21
J Brownhill	Z Flemming	L Pires	L Koleosho

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Brownhill MID	5	9	1	13
J Sarmiento FWD	2	4		5
L Koleosho FWD	2	8		21
J Anthony FWD	2	8	2	17
Z Flemming MID	1	11	1	7
C Egan-Riley DEF	1	2		8
L Foster FWD	1	3	1	2
J Rodríguez FWD	1	2		1
J Worrall DEF			1	1
H Massengo MID			1
B Humphreys DEF				3
J Laurent MID		2		4
H Mejbri MID		2		6
C Roberts DEF			2	6
J Cullen MID		2		10
L Pires DEF		1	2	14

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
1229	36	68
M Estève	L Pires	L Koleosho

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
M Estève DEF	1229	23	55
C Egan-Riley DEF	1033	24	53
J Cullen MID	836	23	56
C Roberts DEF	727	15	44
J Brownhill MID	673	26	58
L Pires DEF	613	36	55
J Trafford GLK	580		5
J Anthony FWD	385	14	43
L Koleosho FWD	385	23	68
B Humphreys DEF	362	18	37
H Mejbri MID	292	12	49
J Laurent MID	274	11	40
J Worrall DEF	235	2	16
L Foster FWD	136	5	31
J Sarmiento FWD	134	16	40
J Rodríguez FWD	110	4	19
Z Flemming MID	80	6	25
H Massengo MID	54	3	6
V Hladky GLK	34
A Hountondji FWD	26	1	4
S Sambo DEF	9	1	2
B Hedilazio FWD	9		2

Derby Championship squad statistics 2024/2025

Overall

Attack

Defence

Most starts	Most goals	Most assists	Most cards
16	4	3	5
C Nelson	J Yates	N Mendez-Laing	E Cashin

Players	Appserances	goals	Assists	cards
C Nelson DEF	16	2		1 -
E Adams MID	16	1		4 -
N Mendez-Laing FWD	16	1	3	2 -
K Jackson FWD	16	2	2	2 -
K Goudmijn MID	15	2		2 -
J Zetterström GLK	14			-
C Forsyth DEF	14	1	1	2 -
E Cashin DEF	14			5 -
J Yates FWD	14	4	2	1 -
B Osborn MID	12		1	1 -
N Phillips DEF	11			1 -
K Wilson DEF	11	1		-
M Harness FWD	10	1		3 -
J Collins FWD	10			1 -
C Elder DEF	9		1	3 -
R Nyambe DEF	9			1 -
L Thompson MID	8			1 -
D Brown FWD	7	1		-
C Blackett-Taylor FWD	7	1		1 -
D Ozoh MID	5	1		-
J Ward MID	4			-
T Barkhuizen FWD	4			1 -
S Bradley DEF	3			1 -
J Vickers GLK	2			-
T Chirewa MID	2			1 -

Most goals	Most shots on target	Most assists	Most big chances
4	8	3	21
J Yates	K Jackson	N Mendez-Laing	N Mendez-Laing

Players	goals	shots on	Assists	big chances
J Yates FWD	4	8	2	6
C Nelson DEF	2	6		1
K Jackson FWD	2	8	2	6
K Goudmijn MID	2	4		6
K Wilson DEF	1	3		2
D Ozoh MID	1	2
C Blackett-Taylor FWD	1	4		4
D Brown FWD	1	1
E Adams MID	1	2		4
M Harness FWD	1	2		3
C Forsyth DEF	1	1	1	3
N Mendez-Laing FWD	1	3	3	21
N Phillips DEF		2
B Osborn MID			1	13
E Cashin DEF		4		1
C Elder DEF			1	4
R Nyambe DEF				1
L Thompson MID				2
J Ward MID		1
T Barkhuizen FWD		1
S Bradley DEF		1
T Chirewa MID		1

Most passes	Most tackles	Most duels won
683	62	122
E Cashin	E Adams	E Adams

Players	passes	tackles	duels won
E Cashin DEF	683	29	81
C Nelson DEF	570	17	52
K Goudmijn MID	408	18	40
E Adams MID	375	62	122
J Zetterström GLK	363	1	9
C Forsyth DEF	336	13	35
N Mendez-Laing FWD	312	22	52
B Osborn MID	297	16	31
K Jackson FWD	251	20	62
C Elder DEF	251	9	30
R Nyambe DEF	209	15	29
N Phillips DEF	182	6	26
K Wilson DEF	177	12	43
J Yates FWD	167	2	35
M Harness FWD	146	8	18
L Thompson MID	113	3	10
D Ozoh MID	100	20	36
J Vickers GLK	57		1
S Bradley DEF	54		2
J Collins FWD	38	1	9
T Barkhuizen FWD	37	3	7
C Blackett-Taylor FWD	33	2	10
T Chirewa MID	25	3	5
J Ward MID	24	1	3
D Brown FWD	19	2	10

English Championship match betting previews, predictions and odds

Portsmouth v Millwall

Sheff Utd v Sunderland

Fri 29th Nov, 20:00

Watford v QPR

Sat 30th Nov, 12:30

Oxford Utd v Millwall

Portsmouth v Bristol C

Plymouth v Oxford Utd

Sat 7th Dec, 15:00

Cardiff v Watford

Sat 7th Dec, 15:00

West Brom v Sheff Utd

Sun 8th Dec, 15:00

Sheff Wed v Blackburn

Tue 10th Dec, 19:45

Sunderland v Bristol C

Burnley v Derby County : Championship match betting preview, prediction and odds

Burnley have played 17 matches so far this season and lay in 2nd place in the Championship league table. Burnley are unbeaten at home after 8 games and have kept 6 clean sheets in those matches.

Performance against teams below them in the league

Home League Performance

Derby are in 14th position in the Championship on 20 points having played 16 matches so far this season.

Away League Performance

Performance against teams above them in the league

Burnley v Derby Championship lLine ups will show here when available.

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