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Athletico PR v Sao Paulo : Serie A match betting preview, prediction and odds

Thu 4th Jul, 01:30 BST, Arena de Baixada, Curitiba

The Serie A is the focus for both Athletico PR and Sao Paulo on Thursday morning, as bosses Alexi Stival and Thiago Carpini Barbosa battle it out at the Arena de Baixada. Statistics drive the predictions below for 17 individual betting markets, and changing between them delivers bespoke analysis, including head-to-head, form and much more besides. Odds are also provided. Hit the tabs below to explore.

Best Tip: Over 1.5 goals

We make over 1.5 goals our best tip on this one, meaning that the teams will score a minimum of 2 goals between them during the standard 90 mins. Both Athletico PR and Sao Paulo's current form stats suggest it's likely, while their head-to-head (H2H) record is pointing in the same direction too. The bookies make it the most likely outcome in this market too, available at 1.44.

In-Play
Win / Draw / Win
Over / Under 1.5 Goals
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Over / Under 3.5 Goals
Win To Nil
Both Teams To Score
Correct Score
Both Teams To Score & Result
Double Chance
Half Time / Full Time
Over / Under 0.5 Goals
Over / Under 4.5 Goals
Over / Under 5.5 Goals
Draw No Bet
Team To Score First
If you’re looking for a winner in this match, we think Athletico PR are the most likely. Our predictive algorithm gives them a 48% chance of victory, and the bookies have them at a best price of 2.25.
Change odds
Predictions Add Bet365 Coral
Athletico PR
47%
2.38
6%
2.20
2%
Draw
25%
3.102.90
Sao Paulo
27%
3.20
6%
3.00
6%
Draw 1-1
12%
6.005.75
Athletico PR 1-0
11%
7.00
8%
6.00
8%
Athletico PR 2-1
9%
10.00
5%
8.50
Athletico PR 2-0
8%
11.00
10%
9.00
Sao Paulo 1-0
8%
8.50
6%
7.50
6%
Draw 0-0
7%
7.506.50
7%
Sao Paulo 2-1
7%
12.00
8%
10.00
Draw 2-2
5%
15.0013.00
Athletico PR 3-1
5%
21.0015.00
Athletico PR 3-0
4%
23.00
10%
17.00
13%
Sao Paulo 2-0
4%
15.0013.00
Athletico PR 3-2
3%
34.0023.00
Sao Paulo 3-1
2%
29.0021.00
Sao Paulo 3-2
2%
41.0026.00
Athletico PR 4-1
2%
51.00
24%
29.00
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
2.35
4%
-
Under 2.5 Goals
51%
1.57
3%
-
Home 1st Goal
52%
1.80
4%
-
Away 1st Goal
44%
2.38
5%
-
No 1st Goal
5%
7.50-
BTTS - Yes
52%
1.951.95
BTTS - No
48%
1.801.75
3%
BTTS - Home Win
21%
5.505.00
4%
BTTS - Draw
18%
4.504.40
BTTS - Away Win
13%
7.00
7%
6.50
Home/draw
73%
1.36
5%
1.33
2%
Away/draw
53%
1.53
6%
1.60
1%
Home/away
75%
1.361.35
Over 1.5 Goals
74%
1.44
3%
-
Under 1.5 Goals
26%
2.75
8%
-
Over 3.5 Goals
27%
4.33-
Under 3.5 Goals
73%
1.22-
Over 4.5 Goals
13%
10.00
11%
-
Under 4.5 Goals
87%
1.06
1%
-
Over 5.5 Goals
5%
19.00-
Under 5.5 Goals
95%
1.02-
Over 0.5 Goals
93%
1.10
2%
-
Under 0.5 Goals
7%
7.00
7%
-
Home DNB
65%
1.62
3%
1.60
3%
Away DNB
45%
2.20
2%
2.20
4%
Athletico PR win to nil
26%
3.75
7%
-
Sao Paulo win to nil
14%
5.00
9%
-
Athletico PR / Athletico PR
21%
4.00
7%
3.70
3%
Athletico PR / Sao Paulo
3%
34.0026.00
Athletico PR / Draw
6%
15.0013.00
8%
Draw / Athletico PR
15%
5.50
10%
5.00
Draw / Sao Paulo
12%
6.50
7%
6.50
Draw / Draw
18%
4.504.20
Sao Paulo / Athletico PR
3%
29.0023.00
10%
Sao Paulo / Sao Paulo
16%
5.00
9%
5.00
5%
Sao Paulo / Draw
6%
15.0013.00
bet365
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Win / draw / win form
21
Athletico PR have not lost in 21 consecutive home league games
Athletico PR 5TH
20 league games
Home
21
Overall
Goals: Scored
35
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
19 / 20
Conceded
12 / 20
Clean sheets
8 / 20
Failed to score
1 / 20
Won
10
Draw
10
see results
HOME FORM
Athletico PR1 - 1Corinthians
Athletico PR1 - 1Flamengo
Athletico PR3 - 1Criciuma
Athletico PR1 - 0Vasco d Gama
Athletico PR1 - 0Internacional
Athletico PR4 - 0Cuiaba
Athletico PR3 - 0Santos
Athletico PR0 - 0Vasco d Gama
Athletico PR1 - 1Fortaleza
Athletico PR1 - 1Sao Paulo
Athletico PR3 - 2America
Athletico PR1 - 1Bragantino
Athletico PR2 - 1Internacional
Athletico PR1 - 1A Mineiro
Athletico PR2 - 2Fluminese
Athletico PR2 - 0Cuiaba
Athletico PR3 - 3Cruzeiro
Athletico PR2 - 0Bahia
Athletico PR2 - 2Palmeiras
Athletico PR1 - 0Corinthians
Goals: Scored
22
Conceded
17
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
13 / 20
Clean sheets
7 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
7
Draw
8
Lost
5
see results
OVERALL FORM
AAthletico PR1 - 0Vitoria
AAthletico PR0 - 2Cruzeiro
HAthletico PR1 - 1Corinthians
AAthletico PR1 - 1Botafogo
HAthletico PR1 - 1Flamengo
HAthletico PR3 - 1Criciuma
AAthletico PR0 - 1Fortaleza
AAthletico PR2 - 0Palmeiras
HAthletico PR1 - 0Vasco d Gama
AAthletico PR1 - 1Juventude
HAthletico PR1 - 0Internacional
AAthletico PR0 - 2Gremio
HAthletico PR4 - 0Cuiaba
AAthletico PR0 - 3Cuiaba
HAthletico PR3 - 0Santos
AAthletico PR1 - 1Cruzeiro
HAthletico PR0 - 0Vasco d Gama
AAthletico PR1 - 1Bahia
HAthletico PR1 - 1Fortaleza
AAthletico PR0 - 1Palmeiras
Sao Paulo 6TH
20 league games
Away
Overall
Goals: Scored
17
Conceded
28
Games: Scored
12 / 20
Conceded
14 / 20
Clean sheets
6 / 20
Failed to score
8 / 20
W
3
Draw
7
Lost
10
see results
AWAY FORM
Vasco d Gama4 - 1Sao Paulo
Corinthians2 - 2Sao Paulo
Internacional0 - 0Sao Paulo
Vitoria1 - 3Sao Paulo
Atletico Go0 - 3Sao Paulo
Flamengo2 - 1Sao Paulo
A Mineiro2 - 1Sao Paulo
Bahia0 - 1Sao Paulo
Fluminese1 - 0Sao Paulo
Santos0 - 0Sao Paulo
Athletico PR1 - 1Sao Paulo
Palmeiras5 - 0Sao Paulo
Goias2 - 0Sao Paulo
Vasco d Gama0 - 0Sao Paulo
Internacional2 - 1Sao Paulo
America 2 - 1Sao Paulo
Flamengo1 - 1Sao Paulo
Cuiaba2 - 1Sao Paulo
Bragantino0 - 0Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro1 - 0Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
24
Conceded
18
Games: Scored
14 / 20
Conceded
11 / 20
Clean sheets
9 / 20
Failed to score
6 / 20
Won
9
Draw
5
Lost
6
see results
OVERALL FORM
HSao Paulo3 - 1Bahia
HSao Paulo2 - 1Criciuma
ASao Paulo1 - 4Vasco d Gama
HSao Paulo0 - 1Cuiaba
ASao Paulo2 - 2Corinthians
ASao Paulo0 - 0Internacional
HSao Paulo2 - 0Cruzeiro
HSao Paulo2 - 1Fluminese
ASao Paulo3 - 1Vitoria
HSao Paulo0 - 0Palmeiras
ASao Paulo3 - 0Atletico Go
ASao Paulo1 - 2Flamengo
HSao Paulo1 - 2Fortaleza
HSao Paulo1 - 0Flamengo
ASao Paulo1 - 2A Mineiro
ASao Paulo1 - 0Bahia
HSao Paulo0 - 0Cuiaba
ASao Paulo0 - 1Fluminese
ASao Paulo0 - 0Santos
HSao Paulo1 - 0Bragantino
Win / draw / win head to head (H2H)
League games at Athletico PR since 2018
Athletico PR
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
4
6
Games: Scored
4 / 6
5 / 6
Clean sheets
1 / 6
2 / 6
APR
1
D
2
SAO
3
see results
FIXTURE HISTORY AT Athletico PR
Draw1 - 1Draw
Athletico PR1 - 0
1 - 2Sao Paulo
Draw1 - 1Draw
0 - 1Sao Paulo
0 - 1Sao Paulo
All league games since 2018
Athletico PR
Sao Paulo
Goals: Scored
6
13
Games: Scored
6 / 12
8 / 12
Clean sheets
4 / 12
6 / 12
APR
2
D
4
SAO
6
see results
FIXTURE HISTORY
Draw1 - 1Draw
Sao Paulo2 - 1
Athletico PR1 - 0
Sao Paulo4 - 0
Draw0 - 0Draw
1 - 2Sao Paulo
Draw1 - 1Draw
Sao Paulo1 - 0
0 - 1Athletico PR
0 - 1Sao Paulo
Draw0 - 0Draw
0 - 1Sao Paulo
Goal Statistics

Athletico PR's fans will be hoping for goals on Thursday morning, not least because Sao Paulo have conceded in each of their last 5 Serie A outings. A PG of 1.5 for A. Stival's side suggests that run should continue.

Athletico PR 5th Sao Paulo 6th
Kickoff prediction
Kickoff prediction
1.5
goals
1.1
goals
Scoring probability
Scoring probability
0
21%
1
33%
2
25%
3
13%
4+
There is a 79% probability that Athletico PR will score 1 or more goals
0
33%
1
37%
2
20%
3
4+
There is a 70% probability that Sao Paulo will score no more than 1 goal
 
20 home / away league games
20 home / away league games
+10
Athletico PR’s goalscoring at home has been inline with predictions
-21
Sao Paulo have scored 21% fewer goals when away than predicted
1.8
average goals scored
0.9
average goals scored
0.9
conceded
1.4
conceded
 
Attack defence ratings
Serie A - 2024/2024 season
https://api.kickoff.co.uk/v1/fixture/273197/accaPanel/formStats/marketCode/FULL
Athletico PR
PG (predicted goals)
Sao Paulo
1.5
1.1
Attack rating
APR
SAO
7%
better
view stats
Games scored10
10
Failed to score3
3
Scored first8
7
Goals scored16
20
Avg. goals scored1.2
1.5
Avg. shots per game10
10
Avg. shots per goal9
7
Conversion rate for12
15
Avg. XG for1.1
1.1
KickOff rating
+7%
Defence rating
16%
better
APR
SAO
view stats
Games conceded8
9
Clean sheets5
4
Conceded first5
4
Goals conceded10
15
Avg. goals conceded0.8
1.2
Avg. shots/game conceded10
8
Avg. shots/goal conceded12
7
Conversion rate against8%
14%
Avg. XG against1.1
0.8
KickOff rating
+16%

Athletico PR v Sao Paulo Serie A lLine ups will show here when available.

Athletico PR Serie A squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
13434
K RochaG MastrianiL EsquivelFernandinho
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
K Rocha DEF131
-
Erick MID131
1
-
L Esquivel DEF123
3
-
Fernandinho MID1212
4
-
B Zapelli MID122
2
-
Pablo FWD112
4
-
G Mastriani FWD114
-
T Heleno DEF10
1
-
Madson DEF101
2
-
L Godoy DEF101
2
-
T Cuello FWD1011
-
Christian MID91
2
-
Bento GLK7
1
-
L Linck GLK6
1
-
A Costa MID6
1
-
A Canobbio FWD621
1
-
M Gamarra DEF4
1
-
A Santana MID4
3
-
Fernando DEF3
-
L Yorio FWD3
1
-
Sao Paulo Serie A squad statistics 2024
Overall
Attack
Defence
Most startsMost goalsMost assistsMost cards
12525
I Vinícius LucianoI Vinícius Luciano
PlayersAppserancesgoalsAssistscards
D Costa DEF12
2
-
I Vinícius  DEF122
3
-
Alisson MID1211
4
-
J Calleri FWD1231
2
-
Welington  DEF111
-
R Arboleda DEF111
-
M Araújo MID111
3
-
Luciano FWD1151
5
-
A Franco DEF91
3
-
R Nestor MID92
2
-
Ferreira FWD931
2
-
A Silva FWD921
-
G Galoppo  MID8
3
-
Rafael GLK7
-
L Gustavo MID7
2
-
L Moura FWD721
1
-
Juan FWD71
-
Jandrei GLK6
-
W Rato MID5
-
D Bobadilla MID51
1
-
Erick FWD51
1
-
N Ferraresi  DEF41
-
Patryck DEF3
1
-
P Maia MID3
-
J Rodríguez MID2
-
Rodrigo MID2
-
W. Gomes Carvalho Santos FWD2
1
-
J Moreira  DEF1
-